This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Varna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.87
1.62
0.54
1.82
1.12
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
0.67
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.76
0.96
1.60
0.70
1.87
1.13
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Levski Krumovgrad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.3%
Under 1.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.3%
Under 2.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.0%
Under 3.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.5%
No
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.9%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
9.1%
2-0
8.9%
0-1 ✓
7.3%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.7%
Levski Krumovgrad goals ↓
Spartak Varna goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
7.3%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.4%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.9%
9.1%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.4%
4.5%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Levski Krumovgrad goals (down), columns = Spartak Varna goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ludogorets
2.31
Levski Sofia
2.00
CSKA Sofia
1.78
Cherno More Varna
1.64
Arda Kardzhali
1.59
Botev Plovdiv
1.56
Spartak Varna
1.42
Beroe
1.36
Slavia Sofia
1.32
CSKA 1948
1.27
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.27
Septemvri Sofia
1.22
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.08
Botev Vratsa
1.03
Levski Krumovgrad
0.89
Hebar 1918
0.57
Marek
0.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Levski Krumovgrad is 0.52 points worse than Spartak Varna in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ludogorets
1.94
Levski Sofia
1.78
CSKA Sofia
1.59
Arda Kardzhali
1.49
Slavia Sofia
1.35
Spartak Varna
1.25
Cherno More Varna
1.22
CSKA 1948
1.22
Botev Plovdiv
1.19
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.16
Beroe
1.14
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.05
Botev Vratsa
0.92
Hebar 1918
0.76
Levski Krumovgrad
0.54
Marek
0.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Levski Krumovgrad is 0.71 goals worse than Spartak Varna in terms of goals scored per game (0.54 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ludogorets
0.61
CSKA Sofia
0.78
Levski Sofia
0.81
Cherno More Varna
0.83
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.00
Arda Kardzhali
1.14
Beroe
1.19
Botev Plovdiv
1.19
Levski Krumovgrad
1.22
CSKA 1948
1.27
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.29
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.38
Slavia Sofia
1.41
Spartak Varna
1.47
Septemvri Sofia
1.51
Botev Vratsa
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.73
Marek
3.00
Levski Krumovgrad is 0.26 goals better than Spartak Varna in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
CSKA Sofia
63%
Ludogorets
60%
Levski Sofia
56%
Slavia Sofia
54%
Botev Plovdiv
53%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
51%
Cherno More Varna
50%
CSKA 1948
50%
Arda Kardzhali
48%
Septemvri Sofia
47%
Hebar 1918
45%
Lokomotiv Sofia
45%
Spartak Varna
44%
Beroe
44%
Levski Krumovgrad
43%
Botev Vratsa
41%
Marek
39%
Levski Krumovgrad is 1.7 percentage points worse than Spartak Varna in terms of average possession (43% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Levski Krumovgrad
For 4.4 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.1 · Against 12.4 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartak Varna
For 4.6 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 6.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 13.7 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Levski Krumovgrad
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.3
9.2
3.7
4.3
3.2
27.2
27.2
27.4
vs Stronger (15)
9.4
7.8
10.7
3.0
2.6
3.4
26.8
28.2
25.7
vs Similar (35)
9.2
9.8
8.4
4.1
5.0
3.2
27.4
26.8
28.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
36%
26%
47%
52%
62%
42%
81%
79%
82%
% under line
64%
74%
53%
48%
38%
58%
19%
21%
18%
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Varna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.3
9.7
1.1
1.2
1.1
24.0
23.7
24.2
vs Stronger (3)
10.0
10.0
-
2.3
3.5
0.0
22.0
22.0
-
vs Similar (41)
9.5
9.0
9.7
1.2
1.1
1.3
24.2
24.5
24.2
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
67%
50%
14%
12%
15%
78%
67%
83%
% under line
44%
33%
50%
86%
88%
85%
22%
33%
17%
This opponent (Levski Krumovgrad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Botev Plovdiv
10.7
CSKA Sofia
10.5
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.4
Spartak Varna
9.4
Septemvri Sofia
9.3
Arda Kardzhali
9.3
Levski Krumovgrad
9.2
Hebar 1918
9.1
Pirin Blagoevgrad
9.1
Ludogorets
9.1
CSKA 1948
9.0
Slavia Sofia
8.9
Levski Sofia
8.4
Cherno More Varna
8.3
Beroe
8.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.1
Botev Vratsa
5.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Beroe
6.1
Pirin Blagoevgrad
5.9
CSKA Sofia
5.8
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.7
Spartak Varna
5.6
Arda Kardzhali
5.5
Levski Sofia
5.4
Hebar 1918
5.3
Levski Krumovgrad
5.2
Slavia Sofia
5.2
Cherno More Varna
5.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
5.0
Botev Plovdiv
5.0
Botev Vratsa
4.9
Septemvri Sofia
4.9
CSKA 1948
4.6
Ludogorets
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Levski Krumovgrad
27.2
Levski Sofia
27.1
Botev Vratsa
26.5
CSKA 1948
26.4
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
26.2
Cherno More Varna
25.8
Beroe
25.7
Spartak Varna
25.6
Lokomotiv Sofia
25.5
Slavia Sofia
25.5
Hebar 1918
24.9
Pirin Blagoevgrad
24.7
Arda Kardzhali
24.7
CSKA Sofia
24.1
Botev Plovdiv
24.0
Septemvri Sofia
24.0
Ludogorets
23.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.4%
Under 9.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.8%
Under 3.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
79.1%
Under 21.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Levski Krumovgrad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.30
1.00
0.21
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.83
0.33
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.29
1.18
0.18
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Varna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.50
0.85
0.31
0.88
0.65
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.52
0.80
0.40
0.93
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Levski Krumovgrad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Levski Krumovgrad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Krumovgrad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Krumovgrad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Levski Krumovgrad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.64
0.79
0.31
0.62
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.11
0.00
1.33
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.52
0.82
0.64
0.10
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Varna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.37
0.77
0.23
0.94
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.44
0.80
0.30
0.93
0.53
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Levski Krumovgrad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Levski Krumovgrad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Krumovgrad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Krumovgrad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Levski Krumovgrad
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cătălin Itu29%
Bozhidar Katsarov20%
Peter Guinari17%
Ibrahim Keita14%
Momchil Tsvetanov8%
Erol Dost8%
Serkan Yussein0%
Joachim Carcela-Gonzalez0%
Sanasi Sy0%
Arhan Isuf0%
Georgi Tartov0%
Dzhuneyt Ali0%
Lazar Marin0%
Stanislav Rabotov0%
Nasko Milev0%
Hristo Ivanov0%
Oktay Yusein0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Vyacheslav Velev0%
Rafael Furtado0%
Patrick0%
Diego Raposo0%
Lucas Santana Dos Santos0%
Matej Šimić0%
Ayman Sellouf0%
Daniel de Pauli0%
Adrián Cova0%
Matheus Souza0%
Tiago Veiga0%
Imanol Alonso0%
Malick Fall0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dzhuneyt Ali60%
Lucas Santana Dos Santos40%
Malick Fall40%
Serkan Yussein33%
Joachim Carcela-Gonzalez33%
Matej Šimić33%
Lazar Marin30%
Cătălin Itu29%
Ibrahim Keita29%
Patrick25%
Bozhidar Katsarov20%
Daniel de Pauli20%
Erol Dost17%
Adrián Cova17%
Imanol Alonso17%
Peter Guinari17%
Georgi Tartov14%
Momchil Tsvetanov8%
Nasko Milev7%
Yanko Georgiev7%
Sanasi Sy0%
Arhan Isuf0%
Stanislav Rabotov0%
Hristo Ivanov0%
Oktay Yusein0%
Vyacheslav Velev0%
Rafael Furtado0%
Diego Raposo0%
Ayman Sellouf0%
Matheus Souza0%
Tiago Veiga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matej Šimić17%
Ibrahim Keita14%
Erol Dost8%
Serkan Yussein0%
Joachim Carcela-Gonzalez0%
Sanasi Sy0%
Bozhidar Katsarov0%
Arhan Isuf0%
Georgi Tartov0%
Dzhuneyt Ali0%
Lazar Marin0%
Stanislav Rabotov0%
Nasko Milev0%
Hristo Ivanov0%
Momchil Tsvetanov0%
Oktay Yusein0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Cătălin Itu0%
Vyacheslav Velev0%
Rafael Furtado0%
Patrick0%
Diego Raposo0%
Lucas Santana Dos Santos0%
Ayman Sellouf0%
Daniel de Pauli0%
Adrián Cova0%
Matheus Souza0%
Tiago Veiga0%
Imanol Alonso0%
Peter Guinari0%
Malick Fall0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cătălin Itu43%
Patrick25%
Serkan Yussein17%
Momchil Tsvetanov8%
Joachim Carcela-Gonzalez0%
Sanasi Sy0%
Bozhidar Katsarov0%
Arhan Isuf0%
Georgi Tartov0%
Dzhuneyt Ali0%
Lazar Marin0%
Stanislav Rabotov0%
Nasko Milev0%
Hristo Ivanov0%
Oktay Yusein0%
Yanko Georgiev0%
Vyacheslav Velev0%
Ibrahim Keita0%
Rafael Furtado0%
Erol Dost0%
Diego Raposo0%
Lucas Santana Dos Santos0%
Matej Šimić0%
Ayman Sellouf0%
Daniel de Pauli0%
Adrián Cova0%
Matheus Souza0%
Tiago Veiga0%
Imanol Alonso0%
Peter Guinari0%
Malick Fall0%
Spartak Varna
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ahmed Ahmedov43%
Dimitar Mitkov22%
Berna20%
Antonio Vutov18%
Xandy12%
Felix Strauss12%
Christian Ilić0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Viktor Mitev0%
Milen Stoev0%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Aleksandar Tsvetkov0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Franjo Prce0%
Lesnyak Philip0%
Radoslav Dimitrov0%
Pa Konate0%
Yvey Nathaniel0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Franck Rivollier0%
Angel Granchov0%
Daniel Ivanov0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Angel Granchov45%
Yvey Nathaniel44%
Deyan Lozev43%
Radoslav Dimitrov40%
Antonio Vutov36%
Franjo Prce33%
Yoan Baurenski29%
Felix Strauss25%
Christian Ilić18%
Milen Stoev17%
Franck Rivollier17%
Daniel Ivanov17%
Martin Velichkov15%
Aleksandar Tsvetkov14%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo13%
Xandy12%
Dimitar Mitkov11%
Viktor Mitev8%
Pa Konate8%
Lesnyak Philip7%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Ahmed Ahmedov0%
Berna0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Ivanov17%
Ahmed Ahmedov14%
Lesnyak Philip13%
Yvey Nathaniel11%
Antonio Vutov9%
Christian Ilić0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Viktor Mitev0%
Milen Stoev0%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Aleksandar Tsvetkov0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Franjo Prce0%
Radoslav Dimitrov0%
Pa Konate0%
Dimitar Mitkov0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Franck Rivollier0%
Angel Granchov0%
Xandy0%
Felix Strauss0%
Berna0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Antonio Vutov18%
Berna13%
Dimitar Mitkov11%
Christian Ilić0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Viktor Mitev0%
Milen Stoev0%
Yoan Baurenski0%
Aleksandar Tsvetkov0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Ahmed Ahmedov0%
Franjo Prce0%
Lesnyak Philip0%
Radoslav Dimitrov0%
Pa Konate0%
Yvey Nathaniel0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Franck Rivollier0%
Angel Granchov0%
Xandy0%
Felix Strauss0%
Daniel Ivanov0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Bulgaria: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →