Levski Sofia is the clear favourite to win at home against Septemvri Sofia, with the model predicting a home win with a 71% probability. This is largely due to the away side's struggles on the road, conceding an average of 7 goals against stronger opponents in their away form.
The model expects a total of 2.9 goals in the match, with the most likely score being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13.3% probability.
Levski Sofia has been in good form at home, scoring an average of 2.73 goals and conceding just 0.64 goals per match against weaker opponents. In contrast, Septemvri Sofia has struggled away from home, failing to score against stronger opponents and conceding an average of 7 goals.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, which has a 79.5% probability, and Home win, which has a 70.8% probability. The home win percentage is 71%, the draw percentage is 20%, and the away win percentage is 10%.
Levski Sofia's win extends their 3-game winning run, having previously defeated Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-0. The final score was 3-0, resulting in a home win for Levski Sofia. As the predicted favourite, the model's selection of a home win was correct, with a pre-match probability of 71%. The model's call was vindicated, as Levski Sofia took the three points.
The model's selection of a home win was among the suggested picks, which largely came in. Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 79.5%, while the model's home win selection also hit, with a probability of 70.8%.
Levski Sofia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.97 | 0.77 | 2.14 | 0.57 | 1.81 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.00 | 0.90 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 2.45 | 0.70 | 2.70 | 0.60 | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
Septemvri Sofia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.57 | 0.80 | 1.40 | 0.93 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.70 | 2.70 | 0.86 | 2.43 | 0.33 | 3.33 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.95 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 1.08 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
| Septemvri Sofia goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 13% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 9.7% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Levski Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
Levski Sofia| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 23.3 | 21.5 | 25.4 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 9.4 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 27.8 | 28.5 | 27.3 |
| vs Weaker (32) | 9.4 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 22.1 | 20.1 | 24.6 |
| % over line | 48% | 50% | 45% | 28% | 29% | 27% | 61% | 50% | 73% |
| % under line | 52% | 50% | 55% | 72% | 71% | 73% | 39% | 50% | 27% |
Septemvri Sofia| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 22.2 | 23.1 | 21.3 |
| vs Stronger (20) | 8.5 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 22.4 | 23.2 | 21.7 |
| vs Similar (30) | 7.9 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 22.0 | 23.0 | 21.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 31% | 31% | 31% | 36% | 35% | 38% | 58% | 62% | 54% |
| % under line | 69% | 69% | 69% | 64% | 65% | 62% | 42% | 38% | 46% |
Levski Sofia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.23 | 0.50 | 0.07 | 0.88 | 0.38 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.60 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 0.75 | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.10 | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| Clean sheet % | 80% (+46pp vs league) | |||||
Septemvri Sofia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.30 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.53 | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.14 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.25 | 0.12 | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
Levski Sofia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 0.53 | 1.64 | 0.50 | 0.94 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 1.70 | 0.50 | 2.20 | 0.50 | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Septemvri Sofia| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.87 | 0.53 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.50 | 1.70 | 0.71 | 1.43 | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.60 | 0.65 | 0.50 | 0.38 | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 82.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 79.8% | 1.27 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.21 | +7.4% | - |
| Over 1.5 | 79.5% | 1.19 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.20 | +1.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 78.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 70.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home win | 70.8% | 1.22 | 1.27 | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.22 | -4.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/25 | H | 7-0 | |
| 27/07/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 21/04/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 09/11/24 | H | 2-3 | |
| 04/05/23 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/10/22 | A | 0-0 |
Levski Sofia| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 25/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 22/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 25/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-3 |
Septemvri Sofia| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 28/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 14/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 06/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Ludogorets | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 2.5 | 83% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | 10.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 46 | 27 | 6 | 13 | 1.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 3.4 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | 2.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 3.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 2.6 | 0.6 | - |
| 4 | Arda Kardzhali | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 5 | CSKA 1948 | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.7 | 67% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | 7.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 20 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | Septemvri Sofia | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2.2 | 67% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.5 | - |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 1.6 | 60% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | 10.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | - |
| 9 | Spartak Varna | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3.2 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 2.8 | 83% | 67% | 17% | - | 0% | 7.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.2 | - |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 6 | 3 | 17% | 0.5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1.8 | 50% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | 8.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 | Dunav Ruse | 6 | 3 | 17% | 0.5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 2.8 | 100% | 67% | 17% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |