Levski Sofia is the clear favourite to win at home, with a 75% chance of success, thanks in part to their opponent Spartak Varna's struggles on the road against stronger teams. This has led the model to predict a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total number of goals in this match is 2.8, with a most likely total of 2 goals.
The most likely scoreline is 2-0 to Levski Sofia, with a probability of 15.1%. Levski Sofia have been in excellent form at home, scoring an average of 2.5 goals and conceding just 0.5 per match against weaker opponents. Spartak Varna, on the other hand, have struggled on the road, scoring an average of 1.25 goals and conceding 0.5 per match against stronger teams.
The model's selections include an Over 1.5 goals prediction with a 78% chance of success and a Home win prediction with a 74.9% chance of success. The probabilities for each possible match result are 75% for a home win, 18% for a draw, and 7% for an away win.
Results analysis
Levski Sofia’s unbeaten run in their last five matches continued as they thumped Spartak Varna 6-0, a result that matched the model’s prediction. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 75 % probability and proved correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.7 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.3 %, Under 7.5 at 99.2 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 99.0 %, Home +2 handicap at 98.2 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 98.0 %, Under 6.5 at 97.5 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.0 %. All eight picks were settled, each achieving its target. The match confirmed the model’s confidence in a decisive home victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Levski Sofia win✓ Hit
74.8%
Avg Implied 74.5% · @ 1.23
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Dafabet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Draw✗ Miss
18.0%
Avg Implied 16.8% · @ 5.46
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
6.11
BetVictor
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
1xBet
5.80
Unibet
5.75
Spartak Varna win✗ Miss
7.1%
Avg Implied 8.6% · @ 10.62
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
13.00
Unibet
12.00
Bet365
12.00
Pinnacle
11.58
Marathonbet
11.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Levski Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.70
2.06
0.44
1.71
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.09
0.64
0.80
0.20
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
2.37
0.74
2.64
0.55
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Varna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.63
1.27
1.80
0.67
1.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
3.00
0.75
3.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.00
1.36
1.45
1.18
0.64
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.0%
@ 1.19+0.1%
Under 1.5
22.0%
@ 4.19-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Pinnacle
4.37
Bet365
4.33
888Sport
4.33
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.5%
@ 1.64-3.1%
Under 2.5
46.5%
@ 2.14+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.23
Betfair
2.20
888Sport
2.20
Betano
2.18
Superbet
2.15
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.2%
@ 2.64-4.1%
Under 3.5
68.8%
@ 1.44+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.74
BetVictor
2.70
Marathonbet
2.69
1xBet
2.69
Unibet
2.65
Under
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.7%
@ 2.20-2.3%
No
60.3%
@ 1.59+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
2.38
Betfair
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
1xBet
2.24
No
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.63
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
15.1%@ 5.40+7.0%
1-0
12.7%@ 6.09+5.5%
3-0
11.3%@ 6.69+4.8%
2-1
8.6%@ 8.19+3.3%
1-1
8.5%@ 9.64+3.9%
0-0
6.7%@ 12.79+3.3%
3-1
6.5%@ 10.33+2.2%
4-0
6.3%@ 10.71+2.3%
Levski Sofia goals ↓
Spartak Varna goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
2.7%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
1
13%
8.5%
2.2%
0.4%
0.1%
2
15%
8.6%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
3
11%
6.5%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
6.3%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Levski Sofia goals (down), columns = Spartak Varna goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Levski Sofia is 1.83 points better than Spartak Varna in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Levski Sofia is 1.69 goals better than Spartak Varna in terms of goals scored per game (2.86 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Levski Sofia is 1.26 goals better than Spartak Varna in terms of goals conceded per game (0.57 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Levski Sofia
For 5.9 · Against 3.3 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.9 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Spartak Varna
For 3.4 · Against 6.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 12.8 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Levski Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.1
9.8
2.1
2.0
2.3
23.2
21.2
25.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
9.0
7.7
10.0
2.5
2.1
2.9
26.9
27.3
26.5
vs Weaker (31)
9.6
9.6
9.6
1.9
1.9
1.9
21.7
19.1
24.6
% over line
50%
50%
50%
28%
27%
29%
62%
50%
75%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
72%
73%
71%
38%
50%
25%
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Varna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.1
10.1
3.0
3.3
2.6
21.8
22.6
21.0
vs Stronger (11)
11.1
10.8
11.3
4.3
5.0
3.7
20.7
23.4
18.5
vs Similar (39)
9.6
9.7
9.3
2.6
2.9
2.3
22.4
22.3
22.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
56%
60%
42%
48%
36%
52%
56%
47%
% under line
42%
44%
40%
58%
52%
64%
48%
44%
53%
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.4
Botev Plovdiv
10.2
Spartak Varna
10.1
CSKA Sofia
9.7
Levski Sofia
9.6
Ludogorets
9.5
Botev Vratsa
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.3
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Septemvri Sofia
8.9
Arda Kardzhali
8.7
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Cherno More Varna
4.9
Septemvri Sofia
4.8
Botev Vratsa
4.8
Spartak Varna
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Ludogorets
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Slavia Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1
Dunav Ruse
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.1
Levski Sofia
24.5
Botev Vratsa
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.1
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.8
Septemvri Sofia
23.0
Spartak Varna
22.9
CSKA 1948
22.8
Ludogorets
22.4
CSKA Sofia
22.3
Botev Plovdiv
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.9%
@ 1.74-10.2%
Under 9.5
57.1%
@ 1.98+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
Unibet
2.08
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
65.1%
Under 3.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
55.9%
Under 21.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Levski Sofia or Draw✓ Hit
92.9%
Avg Implied 90.8% · @ 1.03
Edge
+2.1%
75%
18%
7%
covers Levski Sofia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Levski Sofia or Spartak Varna✓ Hit
82.0%
Avg Implied 83.8% · @ 1.12
Edge
-1.8%
75%
18%
7%
covers Levski Sofia + Spartak Varna
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
Draw or Spartak Varna✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.69
Edge
-0.2%
75%
18%
7%
covers Draw + Spartak Varna
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.85
1xBet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.75
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Levski Sofia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.4%
@ 1.06+0.5%
Under
10.6%
@ 8.46-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Under
1xBet
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
888Sport
8.50
Betano
6.80
Levski Sofia over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
65.6%
@ 1.37-1.9%
Under
34.4%
@ 2.85+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.00
Betfair
3.00
888Sport
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Marathonbet
2.85
Levski Sofia over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
38.9%
@ 2.19-3.4%
Under
61.1%
@ 1.61+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.35
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.20
Bet365
2.20
888Sport
2.20
Under
BetVictor
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Levski Sofia over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
19.0%
@ 3.96-4.4%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.20+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Spartak Varna over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
43.6%
@ 2.03-2.0%
Under
56.4%
@ 1.70+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.18
1xBet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
Under
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Spartak Varna over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 6.06-4.1%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.10+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.75
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.50
888Sport
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Spartak Varna over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 19.81-2.8%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
26.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Spartak Varna over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Levski Sofia, so a minus line means Levski Sofia give that many goals of a start and Spartak Varna receive them. At -1, Levski Sofia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Levski Sofia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Levski Sofia)Actual: Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia -2
28.8%
@ 2.83-2.7%
Draw -2
22.6%
@ 3.75-1.2%
Spartak Varna +2
48.5%
@ 2.00+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.95
Bet365
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.74
Unibet
2.70
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Unibet
3.50
Away
Unibet
2.04
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
10Bet
1.95
Handicap -1 (Levski Sofia)Actual: Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia -1
51.5%
@ 1.70-1.2%
Draw -1
23.3%
@ 3.71-0.8%
Spartak Varna +1
25.2%
@ 3.88+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.67
Unibet
1.65
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.56
Unibet
3.55
Away
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Handicap +1 (Levski Sofia)Actual: Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia +1
92.9%
@ 1.05+3.3%
Draw +1
5.4%
@ 13.00-1.9%
Spartak Varna -1
1.8%
@ 29.00-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Away
Bet365
29.00
Handicap +2 (Levski Sofia)Actual: Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia +2
98.2%
Draw +2
1.5%
Spartak Varna -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Levski Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.20
0.50
0.06
0.86
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.18
0.40
0.00
0.83
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
0.68
0.21
0.55
0.09
0.88
0.38
Clean sheet %
83% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Varna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.60
0.60
0.20
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.25
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.64
0.82
0.36
0.14
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.4%
@ 1.29+4.3%
Under 0.5
23.6%
@ 3.34-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
Superbet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.32
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.3%
@ 2.38-0.6%
Under 1.5
61.7%
@ 1.52+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.59
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.39
1xBet
2.39
Bet365
2.38
Under
Superbet
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Betfair
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.7%
@ 5.39-0.5%
Under 2.5
83.3%
@ 1.12+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
William Hil
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.30
Under
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Levski Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
65.7%
@ 1.44+1.1%
Under
34.3%
@ 2.62-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Under
1xBet
2.75
Superbet
2.65
Unibet
2.63
Pinnacle
2.62
Betano
2.47
Levski Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
26.5%
@ 3.17-2.8%
Under
73.5%
@ 1.31+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.10
Under
Marathonbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Levski Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 7.70-3.7%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.06+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Spartak Varna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
29.3%
@ 3.75+4.7%
Under
70.7%
@ 1.23-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.10
Unibet
3.90
1xBet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
Superbet
3.55
Under
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Spartak Varna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 11.00-3.5%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Spartak Varna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Levski Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.50
1.56
0.38
0.86
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.45
0.40
0.20
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
1.68
0.53
2.09
0.45
1.12
0.62
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Spartak Varna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spartak Varna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.67
1.20
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.00
0.75
2.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.72
0.64
0.82
0.50
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.1%
Under 0.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
53.2%
Under 1.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
23.4%
Under 2.5
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Levski Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
73.1%
Under
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
36.2%
Under
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spartak Varna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
+3.8%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
92.9%
1.03
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
92.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
91.6%
1.06
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
89.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
88.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.10
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
84.5%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Betfair
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.3%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
82.0%
1.12
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
81.0%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+4.4%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
79.1%
1.37
Unibet
1.46
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
+11.7%
-
Over 1.5
78.0%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Unibet
1.20
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.4%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
74.8%
1.23
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Dafabet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
73.5%
1.31
Marathonbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+2.8%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 2H goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.7%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
-4.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Levski Sofia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Reinaldo33%
Álex Centelles0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Kristian Dimitrov0%
Svetoslav Vutsov0%
Mazire Soula0%
Nikola Serafimov0%
Everton Bala0%
El Mehdi Moubarik0%
Serginho0%
Aldair0%
Asen Ivanov Mitkov0%
Juan Perea0%
Maicon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nikola Serafimov33%
Everton Bala33%
Aldair33%
Juan Perea33%
Álex Centelles0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Reinaldo0%
Kristian Dimitrov0%
Svetoslav Vutsov0%
Mazire Soula0%
El Mehdi Moubarik0%
Serginho0%
Asen Ivanov Mitkov0%
Maicon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Everton Bala33%
Álex Centelles0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Reinaldo0%
Kristian Dimitrov0%
Svetoslav Vutsov0%
Mazire Soula0%
Nikola Serafimov0%
El Mehdi Moubarik0%
Serginho0%
Aldair0%
Asen Ivanov Mitkov0%
Juan Perea0%
Maicon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reinaldo33%
Álex Centelles0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Kristian Dimitrov0%
Svetoslav Vutsov0%
Mazire Soula0%
Nikola Serafimov0%
Everton Bala0%
El Mehdi Moubarik0%
Serginho0%
Aldair0%
Asen Ivanov Mitkov0%
Juan Perea0%
Maicon0%
Spartak Varna · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jota Lopes40%
Georg Stojanovski29%
Berna25%
Jota Lopes14%
Xandy12%
Ilker Budinov11%
Martin Georgiev10%
Dimo Krastev9%
Daniel Ivanov6%
Tailson0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Emil Yanchev0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Maksym Kovalyov0%
Tales0%
Angel Granchov0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Pedro Victor0%
Emmanuel John0%
Boris Ivanov0%
Ivan Aleksiev0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Damyan Yordanov0%
Daniel Todorov Halachev0%
Tsvetoslav Marinov0%
Petar Prindzhev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Deyan Lozev40%
Ilker Budinov33%
Damyan Yordanov33%
Alexander Georgiev27%
Angel Granchov26%
Petar Prindzhev25%
Georg Stojanovski24%
Maksym Kovalyov21%
Jota Lopes20%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov18%
Dimo Krastev18%
Pedro Victor17%
Tsvetoslav Marinov15%
Daniel Todorov Halachev14%
Jota Lopes14%
Daniel Ivanov12%
Ivan Aleksiev11%
Emmanuel John10%
Martin Georgiev10%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo9%
Emil Yanchev6%
Tailson0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Tales0%
Xandy0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Berna0%
Boris Ivanov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Todorov Halachev14%
Georg Stojanovski12%
Angel Granchov11%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov9%
Boris Ivanov9%
Berna8%
Emil Yanchev6%
Daniel Ivanov6%
Xandy4%
Tailson0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Dimo Krastev0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Maksym Kovalyov0%
Tales0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Pedro Victor0%
Emmanuel John0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Ivan Aleksiev0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Damyan Yordanov0%
Tsvetoslav Marinov0%
Jota Lopes0%
Petar Prindzhev0%
Jota Lopes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georg Stojanovski29%
Xandy12%
Tailson0%
Deyan Lozev0%
Jacques Ivanov Pehlivanov0%
Emil Yanchev0%
Alexander Georgiev0%
Tsvetelin Chunchukov0%
Dimo Krastev0%
Ilker Budinov0%
Louis Pahama0%
Maksym Kovalyov0%
Tales0%
Angel Granchov0%
Saad Moukachar0%
Daniel Ivanov0%
Pedro Victor0%
Berna0%
Emmanuel John0%
Boris Ivanov0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Ivan Aleksiev0%
Mateo Jurić-Petrašilo0%
Damyan Yordanov0%
Daniel Todorov Halachev0%
Tsvetoslav Marinov0%
Jota Lopes0%
Petar Prindzhev0%
Jota Lopes0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Levski Sofia's squad is €32m more valuable than Spartak Varna's (€38m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Levski Sofia's attack is €9m more valuable than Spartak Varna's (€11m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Levski Sofia's midfield is €7m more valuable than Spartak Varna's (€8m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Levski Sofia's defence is €16m more valuable than Spartak Varna's (€19m vs €3m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv