This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.73
0.78
1.78
0.92
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
2.33
0.40
2.40
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
1.65
1.00
1.67
0.91
1.64
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.2%
Under 1.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.7%
@ 2.00-5.6%
Under 2.5
58.3%
@ 1.80+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.1%
Under 3.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.1%
No
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.8%
1-1
12.8%
2-0
11.8%
0-0 ✓
10.7%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
6.3%
3-0
6.2%
3-1
4.8%
Leyton Orient goals ↓
Burton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.3%
2.9%
0.8%
0.1%
1
14%
13%
4.6%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.2%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
6.2%
4.8%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.4%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leyton Orient goals (down), columns = Burton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Birmingham
2.41
Wrexham
2.00
Stockport
1.89
Charlton
1.85
Wycombe
1.83
Leyton Orient
1.70
Reading
1.63
Bolton
1.48
Blackpool
1.46
Huddersfield
1.39
Lincoln
1.33
Barnsley
1.33
Rotherham
1.28
Stevenage
1.24
Wigan
1.22
Exeter
1.22
Mansfield
1.17
Northampton
1.11
Peterboro
1.11
Burton
1.02
Crawley Town
1.00
Bristol Rvs
0.93
Cambridge
0.83
Shrewsbury
0.72
Leyton Orient is 0.67 points better than Burton in terms of average points per game (1.70 vs 1.02).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Birmingham
1.83
Leyton Orient
1.57
Blackpool
1.57
Stockport
1.57
Wycombe
1.52
Barnsley
1.50
Reading
1.48
Peterboro
1.48
Bolton
1.46
Charlton
1.46
Wrexham
1.46
Lincoln
1.39
Mansfield
1.30
Huddersfield
1.26
Crawley Town
1.24
Rotherham
1.17
Exeter
1.07
Burton
1.07
Northampton
1.04
Cambridge
0.98
Bristol Rvs
0.96
Stevenage
0.91
Shrewsbury
0.89
Wigan
0.87
Leyton Orient is 0.50 goals better than Burton in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Birmingham
0.67
Wrexham
0.74
Wigan
0.91
Stockport
0.91
Charlton
0.93
Wycombe
0.98
Leyton Orient
1.04
Stevenage
1.09
Huddersfield
1.20
Lincoln
1.22
Reading
1.24
Rotherham
1.28
Blackpool
1.30
Exeter
1.41
Northampton
1.43
Burton
1.43
Bolton
1.52
Cambridge
1.59
Barnsley
1.59
Mansfield
1.59
Bristol Rvs
1.65
Shrewsbury
1.72
Peterboro
1.76
Crawley Town
1.80
Leyton Orient is 0.39 goals better than Burton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.04 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Birmingham
67%
Bolton
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Huddersfield
54%
Peterboro
54%
Stockport
53%
Leyton Orient
52%
Reading
52%
Barnsley
51%
Exeter
51%
Wycombe
50%
Blackpool
50%
Charlton
50%
Mansfield
49%
Wigan
48%
Stevenage
47%
Wrexham
47%
Rotherham
47%
Lincoln
45%
Northampton
43%
Cambridge
43%
Burton
42%
Shrewsbury
42%
Leyton Orient is 9.4 percentage points better than Burton in terms of average possession (52% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Leyton Orient
For 4.9 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.5 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burton
For 3.5 · Against 6.1 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.3 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leyton Orient
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.3
8.5
3.3
2.9
3.7
21.5
20.6
22.4
vs Stronger (4)
7.5
7.5
-
2.0
4.0
0.0
21.5
21.5
-
vs Similar (38)
9.6
10.6
8.6
3.6
3.1
4.1
21.2
20.4
21.9
vs Weaker (8)
9.2
10.7
7.7
2.4
1.8
3.3
23.3
21.0
25.7
% over line
53%
65%
41%
44%
40%
48%
49%
43%
55%
% under line
47%
35%
59%
56%
60%
52%
51%
57%
45%
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.9
9.2
3.7
3.4
4.0
22.5
22.8
22.2
vs Stronger (14)
9.5
9.6
9.3
3.6
3.9
3.2
21.6
21.9
21.3
vs Similar (34)
9.0
8.8
9.2
3.9
3.4
4.3
22.9
23.2
22.6
vs Weaker (2)
5.0
5.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
24.0
24.0
-
% over line
45%
44%
45%
54%
43%
68%
57%
64%
50%
% under line
55%
56%
55%
46%
57%
32%
43%
36%
50%
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Exeter
11.7
Barnsley
11.4
Huddersfield
11.3
Crawley Town
11.2
Charlton
10.6
Wycombe
10.6
Rotherham
10.5
Bolton
10.5
Peterboro
10.4
Wrexham
10.3
Mansfield
10.3
Bristol Rvs
10.2
Reading
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Stevenage
10.1
Lincoln
9.9
Blackpool
9.8
Shrewsbury
9.8
Leyton Orient
9.3
Northampton
9.3
Cambridge
9.1
Stockport
9.1
Burton
9.1
Wigan
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Wigan
4.8
Lincoln
4.7
Stevenage
4.6
Bolton
4.5
Blackpool
4.4
Crawley Town
4.3
Birmingham
4.2
Cambridge
4.2
Exeter
4.2
Charlton
4.1
Barnsley
4.1
Bristol Rvs
4.1
Mansfield
4.0
Wycombe
3.9
Huddersfield
3.9
Burton
3.8
Shrewsbury
3.8
Stockport
3.8
Northampton
3.6
Leyton Orient
3.6
Wrexham
3.6
Reading
3.5
Rotherham
3.3
Peterboro
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
26.3
Wigan
24.8
Lincoln
24.2
Birmingham
23.8
Blackpool
23.8
Bolton
23.7
Stockport
23.7
Cambridge
23.3
Bristol Rvs
23.0
Reading
22.9
Shrewsbury
22.8
Wycombe
22.8
Exeter
22.7
Huddersfield
22.6
Rotherham
22.4
Burton
22.2
Charlton
22.0
Mansfield
21.9
Crawley Town
21.9
Wrexham
21.2
Leyton Orient
21.2
Peterboro
20.8
Barnsley
20.4
Northampton
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
32.6%
Under 9.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.1%
Under 3.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.3%
Under 21.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leyton Orient
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.80
0.60
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.55
0.78
0.78
0.45
0.36
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.17
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.56
0.44
0.25
0.83
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.20
0.80
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.61
0.75
0.33
0.27
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leyton Orient over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leyton Orient over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leyton Orient over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leyton Orient
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.67
0.53
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.70
0.67
0.44
0.45
0.91
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
1.17
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Burton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.13
0.22
1.33
0.67
0.83
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.67
0.20
1.60
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.43
1.04
0.25
1.33
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leyton Orient over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leyton Orient over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leyton Orient over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Leyton Orient
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brandon Cooper50%
Daniel Agyei50%
Diallang Jaiyesimi25%
Charlie Kelman25%
Thomas James0%
Jayden Sweeney0%
Darren Pratley0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ethan Galbraith0%
Jordan Brown0%
Lewis Warrington0%
Sonny Perkins0%
Jamie Donley0%
Zech Obiero0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jayden Sweeney33%
Lewis Warrington33%
Jamie Donley33%
Diallang Jaiyesimi25%
Brandon Cooper25%
Darren Pratley25%
Zech Obiero25%
Thomas James0%
Omar Beckles0%
Charlie Kelman0%
Daniel Agyei0%
Ethan Galbraith0%
Jordan Brown0%
Sonny Perkins0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jayden Sweeney33%
Thomas James25%
Diallang Jaiyesimi25%
Sonny Perkins25%
Brandon Cooper0%
Darren Pratley0%
Omar Beckles0%
Charlie Kelman0%
Daniel Agyei0%
Ethan Galbraith0%
Jordan Brown0%
Lewis Warrington0%
Jamie Donley0%
Zech Obiero0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Charlie Kelman25%
Thomas James0%
Diallang Jaiyesimi0%
Jayden Sweeney0%
Brandon Cooper0%
Darren Pratley0%
Omar Beckles0%
Daniel Agyei0%
Ethan Galbraith0%
Jordan Brown0%
Lewis Warrington0%
Sonny Perkins0%
Jamie Donley0%
Zech Obiero0%
Burton · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kgagelo Chauke33%
Finn Delap33%
George Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
Toby Sibbick0%
Jack Armer0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Curtis Tilt67%
Sulyman Krubally67%
George Evans33%
Kyran Lofthouse33%
Jack Armer33%
Finn Delap33%
Corey Addai0%
Toby Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kyran Lofthouse33%
Jack Armer33%
George Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Toby Sibbick0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Finn Delap0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
George Evans0%
Corey Addai0%
Curtis Tilt0%
Kyran Lofthouse0%
Toby Sibbick0%
Jack Armer0%
Kgagelo Chauke0%
Finn Delap0%
Sulyman Krubally0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (26)
€93m
WRE (32)
€77m
CHA (29)
€31m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
Leyton Orient's squad is €5m more valuable than Burton's (€10m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BIR (9)
€46m
CHA (13)
€18m
WRE (9)
€15m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
Leyton Orient's attack is €3m more valuable than Burton's (€4m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
BIR (5)
€12m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
Leyton Orient's midfield is €2m more valuable than Burton's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
BIR (12)
€35m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
EXE (5)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
Leyton Orient's defence is €1m more valuable than Burton's (€3m vs €2m).
England: League One 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Birmingham
Wrexham
Stockport
Charlton
Wycombe
Reading
Bolton
Blackpool
Huddersfield
Lincoln
Barnsley
Rotherham
Stevenage
Wigan
Exeter
Mansfield
Peterboro
Northampton
Crawley Town
Bristol Rvs
Cambridge
Shrewsbury