PythiaFootballBETA
This matchup between Leyton Orient and Burton is finely balanced, with both sides coming off a draw against each other in recent form. The model predicts a home win for Leyton Orient, which is the most likely result, with a 41% chance of victory. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.3%.
Leyton Orient has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 2 against weaker opponents, while Burton has fared slightly better away, scoring 0.62 goals and conceding 1.75 against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, which has an 78.9% chance of occurring. Other selections include the Home win, with a 41% chance, and the Draw, with a 30% chance. The Home win percentage is 41%, the Draw percentage is 30%, and the Away win percentage is 28%.
The draw between Leyton Orient and Burton has extended Leyton Orient's run of consecutive draws against Burton. In a stunning upset, the home team has secured a 2-2 draw, defying the pre-match favourite, the home win, which had a 41% probability of occurring. The model's selection, home win, was incorrect. The model's selection also suggested an under 3.5 total goals, which missed with a probability of 78.9%. The model's selection of home win was correct in suggesting that the most likely score would be a draw, with a 14.3% probability of a 1-1 score, a 11.2% probability of a 1-0 score, and a 10.8% probability of a 0-0 score.
Leyton Orient| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.14 | 1.43 | 1.06 | 1.56 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.96 | 1.44 | 1.15 | 1.31 | 0.79 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.33 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
Burton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.27 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.00 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.36 | 1.18 | 1.45 | 1.09 | 1.27 | 1.27 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Burton goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 11% | 14% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.1% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Leyton OrientBurtonLeyton Orient| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 22.9 | 23.0 | 22.9 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (45) | 9.7 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 23.1 | 23.3 | 23.0 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 9.0 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 21.2 | 19.5 | 22.3 |
| % over line | 52% | 58% | 46% | 60% | 54% | 65% | 66% | 67% | 65% |
| % under line | 48% | 42% | 54% | 40% | 46% | 35% | 34% | 33% | 35% |
Burton| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 21.9 | 21.5 | 22.2 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 9.7 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 21.5 | 21.0 | 22.2 |
| vs Similar (37) | 10.8 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 21.9 | 21.7 | 22.1 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 8.0 | - | 8.0 | 2.0 | - | 2.0 | 26.0 | - | 26.0 |
| % over line | 53% | 54% | 52% | 52% | 48% | 56% | 43% | 42% | 44% |
| % under line | 47% | 46% | 48% | 48% | 52% | 44% | 57% | 58% | 56% |
Leyton Orient| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.56 | 0.70 | 0.69 | 0.54 | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Burton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.14 | 0.29 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.68 | 0.59 | 0.73 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
Leyton Orient| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.77 | 0.43 | 0.86 | 0.56 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.41 | 0.74 | 0.46 | 0.77 | 0.36 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Burton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.68 | 0.59 | 0.73 | 0.45 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 85.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 80.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 78.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 4.5 cards | 71.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 | A | 0-4 | |
| 01/04/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 14/12/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 17/02/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 28/10/23 | A | 0-0 |
Leyton Orient| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
Burton| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Lincoln | 46 | 103 | 67% | 2.2 | 89 | 41 | +48 | 2.8 | 78% | 54% | 33% | 9.3 | 41% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.8 | 61% | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 42% |
| 2 |  Cardiff | 46 | 91 | 59% | 2.0 | 90 | 50 | +40 | 3.0 | 78% | 54% | 37% | 10.5 | 61% | 3.5 | 52% | 20.6 | 30% | 31 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 63% |
| 3 |  Bolton | 49 | 84 | 45% | 1.7 | 76 | 53 | +23 | 2.6 | 76% | 47% | 27% | 10.4 | 57% | 3.7 | 49% | 22.4 | 57% | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 59% |
| 4 |  Stockport | 49 | 83 | 49% | 1.7 | 75 | 62 | +13 | 2.8 | 80% | 59% | 24% | 10.0 | 53% | 3.4 | 51% | 21.2 | 45% | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 55% |
| 5 |  Bradford | 48 | 77 | 46% | 1.6 | 58 | 53 | +5 | 2.3 | 69% | 50% | 17% | 9.9 | 52% | 4.4 | 67% | 25.2 | 77% | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 6 |  Stevenage | 48 | 75 | 44% | 1.6 | 49 | 49 | +0 | 2.0 | 52% | 35% | 19% | 8.7 | 46% | 3.8 | 54% | 24.5 | 75% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 45% |
| 7 |  Luton | 46 | 74 | 46% | 1.6 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 2.7 | 76% | 54% | 28% | 10.4 | 57% | 3.7 | 54% | 24.0 | 63% | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 8 |  Plymouth | 46 | 73 | 48% | 1.6 | 75 | 63 | +12 | 3.0 | 76% | 59% | 39% | 11.3 | 74% | 5.2 | 80% | 24.5 | 67% | 12 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 9 |  Huddersfield | 46 | 67 | 39% | 1.5 | 74 | 64 | +10 | 3.0 | 76% | 59% | 43% | 10.5 | 59% | 4.1 | 61% | 25.0 | 76% | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 10 |  Mansfield | 46 | 65 | 35% | 1.4 | 62 | 50 | +12 | 2.4 | 74% | 46% | 20% | 9.5 | 39% | 3.6 | 46% | 22.4 | 57% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 11 |  Wycombe | 46 | 63 | 37% | 1.4 | 69 | 58 | +11 | 2.8 | 80% | 52% | 28% | 10.2 | 54% | 3.7 | 57% | 21.5 | 41% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 12 |  Reading | 46 | 63 | 35% | 1.4 | 64 | 60 | +4 | 2.7 | 83% | 48% | 26% | 9.3 | 39% | 3.6 | 50% | 22.4 | 57% | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 13 |  Blackpool | 46 | 60 | 37% | 1.3 | 54 | 65 | -11 | 2.6 | 65% | 48% | 33% | 9.9 | 57% | 3.7 | 52% | 24.0 | 76% | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 14 |  Doncaster | 46 | 60 | 37% | 1.3 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 2.6 | 72% | 50% | 22% | 9.7 | 35% | 3.9 | 52% | 23.3 | 63% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 15 |  Barnsley | 46 | 59 | 33% | 1.3 | 68 | 73 | -5 | 3.1 | 83% | 63% | 46% | 10.9 | 57% | 3.5 | 50% | 21.0 | 43% | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 16 |  Wigan | 46 | 56 | 30% | 1.2 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 2.3 | 70% | 35% | 17% | 10.8 | 61% | 3.1 | 39% | 23.6 | 63% | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 17 | Burton | 46 | 54 | 28% | 1.2 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 2.4 | 70% | 50% | 22% | 10.4 | 52% | 3.6 | 52% | 22.0 | 41% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 18 |  Peterboro | 46 | 53 | 33% | 1.2 | 64 | 68 | -4 | 2.9 | 80% | 57% | 26% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 67% | 23.6 | 61% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 55% |
| 19 |  AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 53 | 33% | 1.2 | 51 | 72 | -21 | 2.7 | 67% | 50% | 30% | 9.7 | 50% | 3.2 | 46% | 23.2 | 65% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 20 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 52 | 30% | 1.1 | 59 | 71 | -12 | 2.8 | 76% | 61% | 33% | 9.6 | 52% | 4.1 | 61% | 23.0 | 65% | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 21 |  Exeter | 46 | 49 | 26% | 1.1 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 2.5 | 65% | 46% | 24% | 10.1 | 54% | 3.3 | 50% | 22.0 | 57% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 22 |  Port Vale | 46 | 42 | 22% | 0.9 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 2.1 | 54% | 39% | 22% | 10.2 | 59% | 3.6 | 52% | 21.3 | 48% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 23 |  Rotherham | 46 | 41 | 22% | 0.9 | 41 | 71 | -30 | 2.4 | 67% | 52% | 24% | 9.8 | 52% | 4.2 | 65% | 23.9 | 65% | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 24 |  Northampton | 46 | 35 | 20% | 0.8 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 2.5 | 70% | 48% | 26% | 10.1 | 61% | 3.4 | 43% | 21.9 | 54% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 45% |