PythiaFootballBETA
Liverpool's recent draw against Brentford has set the stage for their upcoming match against the same opponent. The model predicts a home win, which is expected to be a close contest with a total of 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.9%.
At home, Liverpool have scored an average of 2.6 goals and conceded 0.7. Against a weaker opponent, they should maintain their strong scoring form. On the road, Brentford have scored an average of 0.25 goals and conceded 2.25, suggesting they will struggle to find the net against a stronger opponent like Liverpool.
The model's selection is Home win, with a 52% chance of occurring. The draw percentage is 25%, while the away win percentage is 23%. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, which has an 80.4% probability of being hit.
The draw between Liverpool and Brentford has extended Liverpool's recent run of inconsistent form, with their last five matches yielding a mix of wins and losses. The final score of 1-1 was the most likely outcome, according to the Pythia model, which had predicted a 24% chance of this exact score. The model's selection, a home win, was not the correct call, as it was only given a 52% probability of success. In contrast, the actual result was a draw, which was given a 25% probability. The model's suggestion to back Over 1.5 goals was a correct call, hitting with an 80.4% probability.
Liverpool| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.83 | 1.20 | 2.29 | 0.86 | 1.44 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (22) | 2.18 | 1.27 | 2.60 | 0.70 | 1.83 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Brentford| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.30 | 1.80 | 1.13 | 1.20 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.83 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 0.25 | 2.25 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.64 | 1.14 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.30 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
| Brentford goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.4% | 12% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.6% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 5.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
LiverpoolBrentfordLiverpool| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.4 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 20.7 | 20.2 | 21.1 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 9.3 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 23.1 | 22.8 | 23.6 |
| vs Weaker (35) | 10.8 | 11.4 | 10.3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 19.6 | 19.1 | 20.1 |
| % over line | 58% | 68% | 48% | 44% | 36% | 52% | 38% | 32% | 44% |
| % under line | 42% | 32% | 52% | 56% | 64% | 48% | 62% | 68% | 56% |
Brentford| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.1 | 9.2 | 11.0 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 19.3 | 18.9 | 19.7 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 10.8 | 8.7 | 13.8 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 19.2 | 20.6 | 17.2 |
| vs Similar (35) | 10.0 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 19.2 | 18.1 | 20.2 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 8.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 21.7 | 22.0 | 21.5 |
| % over line | 60% | 52% | 68% | 54% | 52% | 56% | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| % under line | 40% | 48% | 32% | 46% | 48% | 44% | 68% | 68% | 68% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/25 | A | 3-2 | |
| 18/01/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 25/08/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 17/02/24 | A | 1-4 | |
| 12/11/23 | H | 3-0 | |
| 06/05/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 02/01/23 | A | 3-1 | |
| 16/01/22 | H | 3-0 |
Liverpool| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/03/26 | H | 4-0 |
Brentford| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 16/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 03/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 3-4 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Arsenal | 38 | 85 | 68% | 2.2 | 71 | 27 | +44 | 2.6 | 71% | 53% | 24% | 9.1 | 42% | 3.2 | 47% | 21.3 | 47% | 1280 | 555 | 225 | 500 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 56% |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 38 | 78 | 61% | 2.1 | 77 | 35 | +42 | 2.9 | 87% | 63% | 21% | 10.3 | 58% | 3.9 | 63% | 20.9 | 42% | 1243 | 542 | 166 | 535 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 60% |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 38 | 71 | 53% | 1.9 | 69 | 50 | +19 | 3.1 | 84% | 63% | 37% | 9.7 | 53% | 3.8 | 58% | 21.2 | 47% | 764 | 362 | 102 | 300 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 4 |  Aston Villa | 38 | 65 | 50% | 1.7 | 56 | 49 | +7 | 2.8 | 74% | 53% | 29% | 10.2 | 68% | 3.9 | 61% | 23.0 | 63% | 583 | 270 | 168 | 146 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 53% |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 60 | 45% | 1.6 | 63 | 53 | +10 | 3.1 | 84% | 61% | 29% | 10.5 | 55% | 3.6 | 50% | 20.7 | 37% | 940 | 490 | 201 | 248 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 59% |
| 6 |  Bournemouth | 38 | 57 | 34% | 1.5 | 58 | 54 | +4 | 2.9 | 76% | 55% | 42% | 10.9 | 63% | 4.3 | 63% | 22.5 | 53% | 658 | 353 | 106 | 199 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 7 |  Sunderland | 38 | 54 | 37% | 1.4 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 2.4 | 71% | 45% | 18% | 9.0 | 45% | 4.1 | 55% | 22.1 | 58% | 415 | 168 | 108 | 140 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 8 |  Brighton | 38 | 53 | 37% | 1.4 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 2.6 | 82% | 50% | 18% | 9.7 | 58% | 4.3 | 63% | 22.0 | 55% | 592 | 191 | 176 | 225 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 53% |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 53 | 37% | 1.4 | 55 | 52 | +3 | 2.8 | 82% | 53% | 37% | 10.2 | 63% | 3.7 | 53% | 19.6 | 34% | 482 | 208 | 89 | 186 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 47% |
| 10 |  Chelsea | 38 | 52 | 37% | 1.4 | 58 | 52 | +6 | 2.9 | 87% | 66% | 32% | 10.4 | 68% | 4.7 | 71% | 23.4 | 68% | 1114 | 418 | 267 | 430 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 57% |
| 11 |  Fulham | 38 | 52 | 39% | 1.4 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 2.6 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 10.5 | 66% | 3.8 | 58% | 20.8 | 39% | 356 | 188 | 38 | 131 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 38 | 49 | 37% | 1.3 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 2.8 | 76% | 63% | 34% | 11.0 | 61% | 4.2 | 61% | 22.1 | 53% | 696 | 249 | 249 | 198 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 13 |  Everton | 38 | 49 | 34% | 1.3 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 2.6 | 76% | 45% | 21% | 9.4 | 42% | 3.7 | 47% | 21.7 | 58% | 443 | 194 | 126 | 123 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 14 |  Leeds | 38 | 47 | 29% | 1.2 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 2.8 | 74% | 55% | 37% | 9.5 | 53% | 3.4 | 42% | 21.7 | 47% | 373 | 142 | 98 | 134 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 38 | 45 | 29% | 1.2 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 2.4 | 71% | 55% | 21% | 9.4 | 47% | 3.7 | 63% | 20.2 | 37% | 553 | 255 | 93 | 205 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 38 | 44 | 29% | 1.2 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 2.6 | 82% | 53% | 26% | 10.1 | 58% | 3.3 | 42% | 22.2 | 53% | 621 | 301 | 117 | 203 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 17 |  Tottenham | 38 | 41 | 26% | 1.1 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 2.8 | 82% | 63% | 26% | 10.2 | 50% | 4.7 | 71% | 22.3 | 58% | 713 | 250 | 177 | 286 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 18 |  West Ham | 38 | 39 | 26% | 1.0 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 2.9 | 87% | 61% | 29% | 11.0 | 66% | 3.8 | 55% | 21.7 | 47% | 449 | 174 | 112 | 164 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 42% |
| 19 |  Burnley | 38 | 22 | 11% | 0.6 | 38 | 75 | -37 | 3.0 | 84% | 50% | 39% | 9.6 | 53% | 2.9 | 39% | 19.5 | 37% | 233 | 100 | 48 | 85 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 42% |
| 20 |  Wolves | 38 | 20 | 8% | 0.5 | 27 | 68 | -41 | 2.5 | 79% | 45% | 24% | 9.4 | 58% | 3.8 | 58% | 23.8 | 66% | 311 | 86 | 111 | 115 | 0.7 | 1.8 | - |