Liverpool’s home form is a clear advantage, scoring an average of 3.1 goals while conceding only 0.9 against weaker opponents, and the Premier League model rates a home win at 63%. The model’s pick is a Liverpool victory, reflecting the stark contrast with Fulham’s away record of 0.5 goals scored and 2.75 conceded against stronger teams. The expected total is 3.0 goals, but the most likely total of 2 goals carries only 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, with a 10.7% chance, underscoring Liverpool’s defensive solidity. Home win probability sits at 63%, draw at 22%, and away win at 15%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.1%), Under 6.5 goals (97.8%), Home +2 handicap (94.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.2%), and Home under 2.5 HT goals (94.1%). Liverpool’s recent draw and Fulham’s recent loss further tilt the balance in favour of a home win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Liverpool win
58.8%
Avg Implied 64.4% · @ 1.46
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.52
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Dafabet
1.48
Draw
23.2%
Avg Implied 20.0% · @ 4.71
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.92
Dafabet
4.90
Betano
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
Pinnacle
4.84
Fulham win
18.0%
Avg Implied 15.6% · @ 6.01
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.40
1xBet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.30
Unibet
6.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Liverpool
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.33
2.53
1.00
1.33
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.17
1.67
1.40
1.20
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (18)
2.44
1.11
3.10
0.90
1.62
1.38
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Fulham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fulham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.20
1.60
1.00
0.93
1.40
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
2.43
2.00
2.00
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (21)
1.19
0.86
1.36
0.82
1.00
0.90
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
3.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.8%
@ 1.12-1.1%
Under 1.5
18.2%
@ 5.46+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
BetVictor
1.11
Under
Unibet
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.40
Marathonbet
5.25
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.8%
@ 1.45-5.6%
Under 2.5
41.2%
@ 2.63+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.68
Betfair
2.60
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.4%
@ 2.17-7.2%
Under 3.5
63.6%
@ 1.68+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Under
1xBet
1.74
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Both teams to score
Yes
57.0%
@ 1.59-1.5%
No
43.0%
@ 2.24+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
No
William Hil
2.30
1xBet
2.26
10Bet
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Betano
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%@ 8.66+5.7%
2-1
10.0%@ 7.68+4.0%
2-0
9.6%@ 8.15+4.0%
1-0
8.5%@ 8.92+3.4%
3-1
6.7%@ 9.67+2.0%
3-0
6.4%@ 10.37+2.0%
0-0
5.7%@ 17.70+3.2%
2-2
5.2%@ 13.35+1.8%
Liverpool goals ↓
Fulham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
3.9%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
1
8.5%
11%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.6%
10.0%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.4%
6.7%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
4
3.2%
3.4%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Liverpool goals (down), columns = Fulham goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brentford
1.39
Brighton
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Liverpool is 0.21 points better than Fulham in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Liverpool is 0.42 goals better than Fulham in terms of goals scored per game (1.66 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Liverpool is 0.05 goals worse than Fulham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Liverpool is 7.9 percentage points better than Fulham in terms of average possession (59% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Liverpool
For 6.4 · Against 3.8 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 10.8 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fulham
For 6.1 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.0 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Liverpool
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.8
9.7
3.3
2.9
3.7
21.3
21.3
21.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
8.4
8.4
8.4
3.5
2.9
4.1
23.4
24.2
22.7
vs Weaker (30)
11.3
11.9
10.6
3.2
2.9
3.4
20.1
19.8
20.4
% over line
55%
62%
48%
46%
44%
48%
45%
42%
48%
% under line
45%
38%
52%
54%
56%
52%
55%
58%
52%
This opponent (Fulham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fulham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.2
9.7
3.4
3.7
3.2
20.0
19.8
20.1
vs Stronger (12)
10.9
11.6
10.0
2.4
2.4
2.4
17.8
17.1
18.8
vs Similar (33)
10.2
10.8
9.5
4.0
4.5
3.4
21.4
21.8
21.0
vs Weaker (5)
11.8
12.3
11.0
2.2
1.7
3.0
15.8
15.7
16.0
% over line
67%
77%
57%
48%
52%
43%
33%
35%
30%
% under line
33%
23%
43%
52%
48%
57%
67%
65%
70%
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.6%
@ 1.45-6.5%
Under 9.5
43.4%
@ 2.48+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.45
Under
Unibet
2.48
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
44.3%
Under 3.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
42.5%
Under 21.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Liverpool or Draw
84.1%
Avg Implied 84.0% · @ 1.12
Edge
+0.1%
59%
23%
18%
covers Liverpool + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Liverpool or Fulham
75.8%
Avg Implied 80.6% · @ 1.17
Edge
-4.8%
59%
23%
18%
covers Liverpool + Fulham
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Draw or Fulham
40.2%
Avg Implied 35.4% · @ 2.66
Edge
+4.7%
59%
23%
18%
covers Draw + Fulham
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.80
Marathonbet
2.71
1xBet
2.71
Betano
2.70
10Bet
2.65
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Liverpool over/under 0.5
Over
84.5%
@ 1.07-3.8%
Under
15.5%
@ 8.05+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Under
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
8.00
Betano
6.70
Liverpool over/under 1.5
Over
55.7%
@ 1.40-11.0%
Under
44.3%
@ 2.79+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.84
Marathonbet
2.81
10Bet
2.75
Liverpool over/under 2.5
Over
28.7%
@ 2.27-12.3%
Under
71.3%
@ 1.58+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.37
Marathonbet
2.33
1xBet
2.30
Betano
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Under
Marathonbet
1.60
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Liverpool over/under 3.5
Over
12.0%
@ 4.26-9.8%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.19+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Fulham over/under 0.5
Over
58.0%
@ 1.45-5.9%
Under
42.0%
@ 2.58+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.75
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
Betano
2.57
Fulham over/under 1.5
Over
21.6%
@ 3.16-8.0%
Under
78.4%
@ 1.32+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.28
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Fulham over/under 2.5
Over
5.8%
@ 8.84-4.9%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.05+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
8.80
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Fulham over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
@ 18.88-3.9%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Liverpool, so a minus line means Liverpool give that many goals of a start and Fulham receive them. At -1, Liverpool must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Liverpool win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Liverpool)
Liverpool -2
17.1%
@ 3.67-7.3%
Draw -2
18.8%
@ 4.32-2.0%
Fulham +2
64.1%
@ 1.64+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.60
Draw
Marathonbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.00
Away
Betfair
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Handicap -1 (Liverpool)
Liverpool -1
35.9%
@ 2.13-6.3%
Draw -1
23.9%
@ 3.72-0.3%
Fulham +1
40.2%
@ 2.68+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.22
Bet365
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Unibet
2.10
Betfair
2.00
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
10Bet
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Away
Betfair
2.80
Marathonbet
2.71
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Handicap +1 (Liverpool)
Liverpool +1
84.1%
@ 1.12+4.3%
Draw +1
10.6%
@ 6.98-2.2%
Fulham -1
5.4%
@ 11.84-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.40
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.20
Handicap +2 (Liverpool)
Liverpool +2
94.6%
@ 1.02+2.1%
Draw +2
4.1%
@ 18.00-1.2%
Fulham -2
1.3%
@ 42.50-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Betfair
19.00
Bet365
17.00
Away
Betfair
51.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Liverpool
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
1.20
0.27
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.20
0.14
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.39
1.50
0.30
0.38
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Fulham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fulham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.67
0.27
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.57
0.67
0.67
0.00
2.25
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.29
0.55
0.18
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.9%
@ 1.23-5.9%
Under 0.5
30.1%
@ 3.85+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Under
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.84
Marathonbet
3.84
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.8%
@ 2.13-9.1%
Under 1.5
65.2%
@ 1.67+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
William Hil
2.20
Pinnacle
2.16
Under
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.67
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.0%
@ 4.66-7.0%
Under 2.5
87.0%
@ 1.17+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.00
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Betfair
4.80
Betano
4.60
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Liverpool over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.4%
@ 1.46-9.4%
Under
45.6%
@ 2.57+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Under
Pinnacle
2.65
10Bet
2.65
1xBet
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.45
Liverpool over/under 1.5 HT
Over
23.9%
@ 3.22-4.9%
Under
76.1%
@ 1.30+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.34
Betano
3.25
1xBet
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Under
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Liverpool over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.4%
@ 8.10-6.1%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.04+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.70
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.02
Fulham over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.4%
@ 2.47-7.2%
Under
69.6%
@ 1.49+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.59
Betano
2.47
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
Fulham over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.5%
@ 8.83-3.9%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.70
1xBet
9.10
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Fulham over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
@ 13.50-6.0%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Liverpool
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.83
1.33
0.73
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.86
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
0.72
1.60
0.60
1.25
0.88
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Fulham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fulham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.93
0.73
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.86
1.33
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.57
0.82
0.64
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.4%
@ 1.13-2.3%
Under 0.5
19.6%
@ 5.40+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Under
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.65
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.40
10Bet
5.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.0%
@ 1.68-7.7%
Under 1.5
52.0%
@ 2.12+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.75
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Under
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.18
Unibet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.3%
@ 3.09-10.0%
Under 2.5
79.7%
@ 1.34+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.20
1xBet
3.08
Marathonbet
3.08
10Bet
3.00
Under
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Liverpool over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.0%
@ 1.30-6.5%
Under
35.0%
@ 3.27+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Liverpool over/under 1.5 2H
Over
26.0%
@ 2.42-12.4%
Under
74.0%
@ 1.51+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.40
Betano
2.37
Under
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Liverpool over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.1%
@ 5.37-9.1%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.12+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Fulham over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.8%
@ 2.05-2.6%
Under
57.2%
@ 1.70+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.06
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Under
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.68
Fulham over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.7%
@ 6.33-2.9%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.09+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.80
1xBet
6.50
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Fulham over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
@ 11.50-6.2%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.0%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.0%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.2%
Under 6.5
97.8%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
+5.7%
Home +2 handicap
94.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
+2.1%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.6%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.1%
Away under 2.5 goals
94.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
+4.9%
Under 5.5
94.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.06
+8.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.9%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
-
-
+9.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.3%
1.09
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
-
-
+2.9%
Home under 3.5 goals
88.0%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
+9.8%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.17
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
+7.0%
Under 5.5 cards
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.8%
1.27
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
BetVictor
1.27
+12.2%
Under 25.5 fouls
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.5%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-3.8%
Home or Draw
84.1%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+0.1%
Home +1 handicap
84.1%
1.12
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
+4.3%
Over 1.5
81.8%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
BetVictor
1.11
-1.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.4%
1.13
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-2.3%
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.7%
1.34
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+10.0%
Away under 1.5 goals
78.4%
1.32
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+8.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.1%
1.30
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
-
+4.9%
Home or Away
75.8%
1.17
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
-4.8%
Under 4.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.0%
1.51
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
-
+12.4%
Under 23.5 fouls
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.3%
1.58
Marathonbet
1.60
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.57
+12.3%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Liverpool · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mohamed Salah30%
Hugo Ekitiké30%
Dominik Szoboszlai25%
Alexander Isak18%
Cody Gakpo18%
Florian Wirtz15%
Virgil van Dijk13%
Ryan Gravenberch12%
Andy Robertson9%
Federico Chiesa8%
Alexis Mac Allister7%
Rio Ngumoha7%
Curtis Jones6%
Miloš Kerkez4%
Ibrahima Konaté4%
Jeremie Frimpong3%
Alisson0%
Joe Gomez0%
Wataru Endo0%
Freddie Woodman0%
Giorgi Mamardashvili0%
Conor Bradley0%
Trey Nyoni0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Conor Bradley33%
Dominik Szoboszlai19%
Joe Gomez18%
Ibrahima Konaté18%
Alexis Mac Allister17%
Ryan Gravenberch16%
Virgil van Dijk11%
Federico Chiesa11%
Miloš Kerkez11%
Wataru Endo9%
Curtis Jones8%
Cody Gakpo6%
Hugo Ekitiké5%
Alisson3%
Jeremie Frimpong3%
Andy Robertson3%
Mohamed Salah2%
Florian Wirtz2%
Alexander Isak0%
Freddie Woodman0%
Giorgi Mamardashvili0%
Trey Nyoni0%
Rio Ngumoha0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mohamed Salah25%
Dominik Szoboszlai19%
Florian Wirtz12%
Ryan Gravenberch12%
Hugo Ekitiké11%
Cody Gakpo10%
Alexis Mac Allister9%
Wataru Endo9%
Curtis Jones6%
Joe Gomez6%
Andy Robertson6%
Federico Chiesa6%
Conor Bradley5%
Alexander Isak5%
Miloš Kerkez4%
Rio Ngumoha3%
Jeremie Frimpong3%
Virgil van Dijk2%
Alisson0%
Ibrahima Konaté0%
Freddie Woodman0%
Giorgi Mamardashvili0%
Trey Nyoni0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mohamed Salah28%
Hugo Ekitiké23%
Dominik Szoboszlai21%
Cody Gakpo18%
Alexis Mac Allister9%
Alexander Isak9%
Florian Wirtz8%
Virgil van Dijk4%
Rio Ngumoha3%
Federico Chiesa3%
Miloš Kerkez2%
Ryan Gravenberch2%
Alisson0%
Joe Gomez0%
Andy Robertson0%
Curtis Jones0%
Ibrahima Konaté0%
Wataru Endo0%
Freddie Woodman0%
Giorgi Mamardashvili0%
Jeremie Frimpong0%
Conor Bradley0%
Trey Nyoni0%
Fulham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gonzalo García67%
Ryan Sessegnon0%
Calvin Bassey0%
Kevin0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Shea Charles0%
César Palacios0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Calvin Bassey33%
César Palacios33%
Ryan Sessegnon0%
Kevin0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Shea Charles0%
Gonzalo García0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan Sessegnon33%
Calvin Bassey0%
Kevin0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Shea Charles0%
Gonzalo García0%
César Palacios0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ryan Sessegnon0%
Calvin Bassey0%
Kevin0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Shea Charles0%
Gonzalo García0%
César Palacios0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Liverpool's squad is €651m more valuable than Fulham's (€980m vs €329m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Liverpool's attack is €340m more valuable than Fulham's (€518m vs €178m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Liverpool's midfield is €174m more valuable than Fulham's (€201m vs €28m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Liverpool's defence is €138m more valuable than Fulham's (€260m vs €123m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham