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Livingston vs Kilmarnock Result & Analysis

Date: 17/05/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 1-4
Livingston
Livingston
Vs
44%
25%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
Scotland: Premiership
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Top picks for this game9 Squad value10 Games History11 Overall Statistics12 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Livingston a 44% win probability against Kilmarnock in the Scotland: Premiership on 2026-05-17, with 25% for the draw and 30% for Kilmarnock. The model estimates around 3.2 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (22%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (11.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (84%), Over 21.5 fouls (77%).

Results analysis

Livingston finished 1-4 against Kilmarnock (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 44% home win, 25% draw and 30% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (84%). Missed: Over 21.5 fouls (77%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Livingston win✗ Miss
44.2%
Avg Implied 33.4% · @ 2.77
Edge
+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.45
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock win✓ Hit
30.5%
Avg Implied 39.7% · @ 2.33
Edge
-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

LivingstonLivingston

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D11D00D02L22D23L20W22D03L00DH·RAN22/02H·ST 28/02A·HIB14/03A·KIL21/03H·HEA05/04A·DUN11/04A·ST 25/04H·ABE01/05A·DUN09/05A·DUN12/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.931.291.930.751.94
vs Stronger (14)1.142.211.572.140.712.29
vs Similar (16)0.881.691.001.710.781.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KilmarnockKilmarnock

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D15L10W20W03L22D01L30W30W31WA·DUN21/02A·FAL28/02H·HEA14/03H·LIV21/03A·HIB04/04H·DUN11/04A·ABE25/04H·DUN02/05A·ST 09/05H·DUN12/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.971.531.600.802.33
vs Stronger (17)0.762.410.881.750.673.00
vs Similar (13)1.691.382.291.431.001.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.4%
@ 1.71+7.0%
Under 2.5
38.6%
@ 2.04-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.1%
Under 3.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.8%
No
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.4%
1-0
6.3%
3-1
5.3%
0-0
5.2%
Livingston goals ↓
Kilmarnock goals →
01234
05.2%4.9%4.3%2.0%0.7%
16.3%11%7.4%3.5%1.3%
26.4%9.1%6.5%3.1%1.1%
33.7%5.3%3.8%1.8%0.6%
41.6%2.3%1.7%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Livingston goals (down), columns = Kilmarnock goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Partick
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Livingston
0.55
Arbroath
0.50
Livingston is 0.50 points worse than Kilmarnock in terms of average points per game (0.55 vs 1.05).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Livingston
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
Partick
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Dunfermline
0.75
Arbroath
0.00
Livingston is 0.26 goals worse than Kilmarnock in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 1.32).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Arbroath
0.50
Dunfermline
0.75
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Partick
1.00
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Livingston
1.97
Livingston is 0.18 goals worse than Kilmarnock in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.79).

⏱ïļ Possession

Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Arbroath
50%
Dunfermline
50%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Livingston
45%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Livingston is 2.5 percentage points better than Kilmarnock in terms of average possession (45% vs 42%).

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

LivingstonLivingston

For 4.8 · Against 6.6 · Total 11.4

ðŸšĐ Corners

1808757637834554312723151512915710712918A·DUNA·DUNH·ABEA·ST A·DUNH·HEAA·KILA·HIBH·ST H·RAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.8

ðŸŸĻ Cards

6042113122222121242226244423364A·DUNA·DUNH·ABEA·ST H·HEAA·KILA·HIBH·ST H·RANA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 11.4 · Total 21.3

⚠ïļ Fouls

3301214531015101397101071476111718152682523162021132833A·DUNA·DUNH·ABEA·ST A·DUNH·HEAA·KILA·HIBH·ST H·RAN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

KilmarnockKilmarnock

For 4.2 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.6

ðŸšĐ Corners

1206241485642933429233685121161271159H·DUNA·ST H·DUNA·ABEH·DUNA·HIBH·LIVH·HEAA·FALA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.3

ðŸŸĻ Cards

704313141423122223417415642455H·DUNA·ST H·DUNA·ABEH·DUNA·HIBH·LIVH·HEAA·FALA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 11.0 · Total 25.3

⚠ïļ Fouls

320131811111310161624715914713141599931222332312421272418H·DUNA·ST H·DUNA·ABEH·DUNA·HIBH·LIVH·HEAA·FALA·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

LivingstonLivingston

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.310.210.53.33.73.025.727.923.7
vs Stronger (19)11.211.510.94.85.04.726.728.324.9
vs Similar (28)9.68.710.22.73.22.324.827.622.8
vs Weaker (3)---0.00.00.0---
% over line57%53%62%50%58%42%75%89%62%
% under line43%47%38%50%42%58%25%11%38%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KilmarnockKilmarnock

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.79.210.34.14.53.724.425.223.5
vs Stronger (24)10.09.310.84.34.93.723.524.123.0
vs Similar (24)9.49.29.74.24.34.025.325.824.6
vs Weaker (2)10.09.011.01.52.01.024.030.018.0
% over line52%38%67%60%65%54%68%73%62%
% under line48%62%33%40%35%46%32%27%38%
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.0
ST Mirren
11.0
Hibernian
10.7
Dundee Utd
10.5
Rangers
10.5
Partick
10.3
Aberdeen
10.3
Livingston
10.1
Dundee
10.0
Heart Of Midlothian
10.0
Falkirk
9.9
Arbroath
9.8
Kilmarnock
9.7
Dunfermline
9.1
Motherwell
8.6

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.8
Hibernian
4.6
Motherwell
4.6
Livingston
4.3
Heart Of Midlothian
4.3
Partick
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Falkirk
4.1
Rangers
4.1
Dunfermline
4.0
Dundee Utd
4.0
Celtic
3.8
Arbroath
3.7
Dundee
3.6
ST Mirren
3.6

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Motherwell
25.8
Rangers
25.7
Aberdeen
25.1
Livingston
25.1
Kilmarnock
24.4
Falkirk
24.3
Heart Of Midlothian
23.4
Hibernian
22.5
Dundee
22.1
Dundee Utd
22.0
Celtic
21.9
ST Mirren
21.8
Dunfermline
21.4
Arbroath
20.8
Partick
20.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.4%
Under 9.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
64.2%
Under 3.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
77.3%
Under 21.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

ðŸ”Ĩ 8. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls77.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 9. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (34)
€154m
RAN (25)
€127m
HOM (33)
€33m
HIB (31)
€30m
ABE (35)
€24m
MOT (28)
€21m
KIL (33)
€13m
DUN (30)
€12m
SM (26)
€8m
FAL (26)
€7m
LIV (29)
€6m
DUN (31)
€6m
PAR (22)
€3m
ARB (25)
€1m
Livingston's squad is €7m less valuable than Kilmarnock's (€6m vs €13m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (9)
€59m
CEL (12)
€55m
HOM (12)
€19m
HIB (10)
€14m
MOT (10)
€12m
ABE (11)
€10m
KIL (12)
€5m
DUN (10)
€3m
SM (9)
€3m
DUN (11)
€2m
FAL (10)
€2m
LIV (12)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
ARB (5)
€0m
Livingston's attack is €3m less valuable than Kilmarnock's (€2m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (6)
€38m
RAN (6)
€28m
HIB (8)
€10m
HOM (8)
€9m
ABE (10)
€5m
DUN (8)
€5m
MOT (8)
€4m
SM (7)
€3m
KIL (6)
€3m
LIV (8)
€3m
FAL (5)
€2m
PAR (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
ARB (8)
€1m
Livingston and Kilmarnock have a similar midfield value (both €3m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (16)
€60m
RAN (10)
€40m
ABE (14)
€8m
HIB (13)
€6m
MOT (10)
€6m
HOM (13)
€5m
KIL (15)
€5m
DUN (11)
€5m
FAL (11)
€3m
SM (10)
€2m
DUN (14)
€2m
LIV (9)
€2m
PAR (9)
€1m
ARB (12)
€1m
Livingston's defence is €3m less valuable than Kilmarnock's (€2m vs €5m).

ðŸĪ 10. Games History

Head-to-head

Livingston vs Kilmarnock · H/A from LIV
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/26AKilmarnock Vs LIV2-0
10/01/26HLIV Vs Kilmarnock1-1
02/08/25AKilmarnock Vs LIV2-2
07/02/24AKilmarnock Vs LIV1-0
16/12/23HLIV Vs Kilmarnock0-0
21/10/23AKilmarnock Vs LIV3-1
13/05/23AKilmarnock Vs LIV2-0
04/02/23HLIV Vs Kilmarnock3-1

LivingstonLivingston

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/05/26ADundee Utd Vs LIV0-0
09/05/26ADundee Vs LIV3-0
01/05/26HLIV Vs Aberdeen2-2
25/04/26AST Mirren Vs LIV0-2
11/04/26ADundee Utd Vs LIV3-2
05/04/26HLIV Vs Heart Of Midlothian2-2
21/03/26AKilmarnock Vs LIV2-0
14/03/26AHibernian Vs LIV0-0
28/02/26HLIV Vs ST Mirren1-1
22/02/26HLIV Vs Rangers2-2

KilmarnockKilmarnock

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/05/26HKIL Vs Dundee3-1
09/05/26AST Mirren Vs KIL0-3
02/05/26HKIL Vs Dundee Utd3-0
25/04/26AAberdeen Vs KIL1-0
11/04/26HKIL Vs Dundee2-2
04/04/26AHibernian Vs KIL3-0
21/03/26HKIL Vs Livingston2-0
14/03/26HKIL Vs Heart Of Midlothian1-0
28/02/26AFalkirk Vs KIL5-1
21/02/26ADundee Utd Vs KIL1-1

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Livingston
Livingston
Scotland: Premiership
Recent: 1 Wins / 6 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLD1.04
HomeLDDDD1.12
AwayLLWLD0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%25%23%
AVG goals2.983.172.81
Over 1.5 %84%92%77%
Over 2.5 %62%67%58%
Over 3.5 %34%42%27%
Scored1.441.751.15
Conceded1.541.421.65
BTTS54%67%42%
Clean Sheet24%21%27%
Corners10.3510.1610.52
Cards4.174.403.95
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
Scotland: Premiership
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWW1.06
HomeWWDWW1.46
AwayDLLLW0.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%42%12%
AVG goals3.083.003.17
Over 1.5 %82%81%83%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %40%38%42%
Scored1.261.580.92
Conceded1.821.422.25
BTTS52%50%54%
Clean Sheet24%31%17%
Corners9.749.2310.29
Cards4.204.503.87

🏆 12. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CelticCeltic3882
68%
2.2
7341+32
3.0
82%
68%
42%
10.6
61%
4.1
55%
21.8
37%
154
5538601.91.1
66%
2Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian3880
63%
2.1
6734+33
2.7
71%
53%
29%
10.1
63%
4.7
63%
24.3
61%
33
19951.80.9
53%
3RangersRangers3872
53%
1.9
7643+33
3.1
82%
61%
37%
10.6
63%
4.2
58%
25.5
76%
127
5928402.01.1
58%
4MotherwellMotherwell3861
42%
1.6
5936+23
2.5
76%
39%
29%
8.1
32%
4.9
71%
26.3
79%
21
12461.60.9
58%
5HibernianHibernian3857
39%
1.5
5844+14
2.7
76%
55%
29%
10.6
68%
4.4
61%
23.2
66%
30
141061.51.2
47%
6FalkirkFalkirk3849
37%
1.3
5062-12
2.9
74%
58%
34%
9.6
53%
4.2
63%
25.3
76%
7
2231.31.6
51%
7Dundee UtdDundee Utd3845
26%
1.2
4960-11
2.9
89%
50%
34%
10.0
55%
4.2
61%
22.8
53%
0
0001.31.6
42%
8DundeeDundee3842
29%
1.1
4261-19
2.7
71%
58%
34%
9.5
61%
3.7
51%
22.9
55%
12
2551.11.6
44%
9AberdeenAberdeen3840
29%
1.1
4055-15
2.5
74%
34%
24%
10.0
58%
4.9
69%
26.4
95%
24
10581.11.4
48%
10KilmarnockKilmarnock3840
26%
1.1
5068-18
3.1
84%
66%
42%
9.7
53%
4.5
71%
25.0
74%
13
5351.31.8
42%
11ST MirrenST Mirren4038
22%
0.9
3256-24
2.2
68%
30%
15%
11.1
71%
3.3
38%
22.3
58%
8
3320.81.4
46%
12LivingstonLivingston3821
5%
0.6
4075-35
3.0
84%
63%
39%
10.4
58%
4.2
65%
25.2
71%
6
2321.12.0
45%
13PartickPartick45
25%
1.2
44+0
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
3.5
50%
-
0%
3
1111.01.0
-
14DunfermlineDunfermline45
25%
1.2
33+0
1.5
50%
25%
0%
9.0
50%
6.0
100%
22.5
100%
6
3120.80.8
50%
15ArbroathArbroath21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
9.0
50%
6.0
100%
22.5
100%
1
0110.00.5
50%
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →

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