Livingston are tipped to win, with a 49% chance of triumph, a 28% draw probability and a 23% chance for Partick. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.3% probability.
Livingston, playing at home against a similarly-rated side, average 1.09 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. Partick, on the road, average 1.36 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2%), Under 5.5 (95.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.3%), Home +2 handicap (91.5%) and Under 4.5 (88.7%). Livingston’s recent form shows a 0-1 loss to Arbroath, while Partick are coming off a 0-0 draw with Queen’s Park.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Livingston win
50.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Partick win
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Livingston
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.60
1.75
1.62
0.79
1.57
vs Stronger (8)
1.38
2.38
2.00
2.50
0.75
2.25
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.45
1.09
1.45
0.89
1.44
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
0.00
8.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partick
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.77
1.62
0.54
1.41
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.46
0.73
1.58
0.42
1.36
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.6%
Under 2.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
11.2%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
9.1%
0-1
6.5%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.1%
Livingston goals ↓
Partick goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
6.5%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.8%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.7%
9.4%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.1%
4.9%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.0%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Livingston goals (down), columns = Partick goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Livingston is 0.13 points worse than Partick in terms of average points per game (1.73 vs 1.85).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Livingston is 0.02 goals better than Partick in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Livingston is 0.05 goals better than Partick in terms of goals conceded per game (0.91 vs 0.96).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Livingston
For 4.8 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 10.9 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Partick
For 6.0 · Against 6.3 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 9.0 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Livingston
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.2
10.6
3.0
3.0
3.0
25.0
26.9
23.4
vs Stronger (16)
11.7
12.0
11.4
4.6
4.6
4.6
25.4
26.9
23.9
vs Similar (30)
9.7
8.7
10.5
2.4
2.7
2.1
24.4
27.0
22.4
vs Weaker (4)
6.0
-
6.0
0.8
0.0
3.0
31.0
-
31.0
% over line
59%
53%
65%
44%
48%
40%
70%
82%
60%
% under line
41%
47%
35%
56%
52%
60%
30%
18%
40%
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partick
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
10.7
11.2
0.7
0.7
0.8
18.4
19.0
18.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
11.0
10.7
11.2
0.8
0.7
1.0
18.4
19.0
18.0
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
71%
67%
75%
8%
4%
11%
29%
33%
25%
% under line
29%
33%
25%
92%
96%
89%
71%
67%
75%
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.4%
Under 9.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
64.0%
Under 3.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
58.3%
Under 21.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Livingston or Draw
77.8%
Avg Implied -
50%
28%
22%
covers Livingston + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Livingston or Partick
72.3%
Avg Implied -
50%
28%
22%
covers Livingston + Partick
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Partick
49.9%
Avg Implied -
50%
28%
22%
covers Draw + Partick
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Livingston over/under 0.5
Over
79.2%
Under
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 1.5
Over
46.5%
Under
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 2.5
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 3.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 0.5
Over
62.1%
Under
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5
Over
25.3%
Under
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Livingston, so a minus line means Livingston give that many goals of a start and Partick receive them. At -1, Livingston must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Livingston win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Livingston)
Livingston -2
11.1%
Draw -2
15.7%
Partick +2
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Livingston)
Livingston -1
26.7%
Draw -1
23.3%
Partick +1
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Livingston)
Livingston +1
77.8%
Draw +1
14.0%
Partick -1
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Livingston)
Livingston +2
91.8%
Draw +2
6.0%
Partick -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Livingston
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.75
0.94
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.38
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.80
0.36
0.82
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partick
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.40
1.08
0.38
0.65
0.41
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.35
1.08
0.25
0.50
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Livingston over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Livingston
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
1.00
0.69
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.65
0.73
0.64
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partick
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.37
0.54
0.15
0.76
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.38
0.50
0.17
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Livingston over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Livingston · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jeremy Bokila22%
Connor McLennan19%
Lewis Smith17%
Robbie Muirhead15%
Graham Carey14%
Scott Pittman14%
Brooklyn Kabongolo12%
Tete Yengi11%
Jon Nouble10%
Stevie May6%
Mahamadou Susoho6%
Cristian Montaño4%
Mohammad Sylla3%
Danny Wilson3%
Joshua Brenet0%
Scott Arfield0%
Barrie McKay0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Andy Winter0%
Cammy Kerr0%
Ryan McGowan0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Jérôme Prior0%
Danny Finlayson0%
Joshua Zimmerman0%
Emmanuel Danso0%
Babacar Fati0%
Adam Montgomery0%
Macaulay Tait0%
Samson Lawal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Connor McLennan38%
Mahamadou Susoho33%
Cristian Montaño27%
Adam Montgomery25%
Macaulay Tait24%
Emmanuel Danso23%
Danny Finlayson23%
Jeremy Bokila22%
Robbie Muirhead21%
Brooklyn Kabongolo19%
Stevie May18%
Ryan McGowan17%
Babacar Fati17%
Mohammad Sylla16%
Graham Carey14%
Scott Pittman14%
Joshua Zimmerman14%
Samson Lawal13%
Scott Arfield12%
Jérôme Prior11%
Cammy Kerr9%
Lewis Smith6%
Tete Yengi5%
Danny Wilson3%
Joshua Brenet0%
Barrie McKay0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Andy Winter0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Jon Nouble0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Barrie McKay29%
Jon Nouble20%
Graham Carey14%
Adam Montgomery12%
Cristian Montaño12%
Macaulay Tait9%
Emmanuel Danso8%
Joshua Brenet7%
Robbie Muirhead6%
Stevie May6%
Scott Pittman6%
Lewis Smith6%
Ryan McGowan4%
Danny Finlayson3%
Jérôme Prior3%
Scott Arfield0%
Jeremy Bokila0%
Mohammad Sylla0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Connor McLennan0%
Andy Winter0%
Cammy Kerr0%
Danny Wilson0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Joshua Zimmerman0%
Babacar Fati0%
Tete Yengi0%
Mahamadou Susoho0%
Samson Lawal0%
Brooklyn Kabongolo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tete Yengi11%
Jon Nouble10%
Robbie Muirhead9%
Stevie May9%
Connor McLennan6%
Brooklyn Kabongolo6%
Lewis Smith6%
Cristian Montaño4%
Joshua Brenet0%
Scott Arfield0%
Jeremy Bokila0%
Mohammad Sylla0%
Barrie McKay0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Graham Carey0%
Scott Pittman0%
Andy Winter0%
Cammy Kerr0%
Ryan McGowan0%
Danny Wilson0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Jérôme Prior0%
Danny Finlayson0%
Joshua Zimmerman0%
Emmanuel Danso0%
Babacar Fati0%
Adam Montgomery0%
Mahamadou Susoho0%
Macaulay Tait0%
Samson Lawal0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Livingston's squad is €1m more valuable than Partick's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Livingston and Partick have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Livingston and Partick have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Livingston and Partick have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
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Stenhousemuir
Raith Rovers
Arbroath
Ayr Utd
Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Morton
Queen's Park