Ljungskile SK’s recent win suggests a bright start, yet IFK Varnamo’s unbeaten run keeps the visitors as the model’s pick for victory. The projected total of 3.7 goals signals a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being three goals at 21 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.2 % chance. Ljungskile, playing at home against a similarly-tier opponent, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Varnamo, on the road, averages 1.4 scored and 2.4 conceded. Home win probability is 37 %, draw 23 %, and away win 40 %. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.3 %, Under 7.5 total goals at 96.3 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.8 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 92.9 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.8 %, Under 6.5 total goals at 91.5 %, and Under 5.5 cards at 90.6 %.
Results analysis
The match saw Ljungskile SK return to the losing side after a 0-1 defeat, while IFK Varnamo kept their unbeaten streak alive. The Pythia model had correctly called the away win, with a pre-match probability of 39%. The final score of 0-1 matched the actual result, confirming the model’s pick. Every suggested selection hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.7%, Under 7.5 goals at 96.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.3%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.9%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.8%, Under 6.5 goals at 91.5%, and Under 5.5 cards at 90.6%. The model’s predictions were spot on, delivering a clean sweep of accurate outcomes.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ljungskile SK win✗ Miss
37.7%
Avg Implied 43.1% · @ 2.13
Edge
-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.19
Pinnacle
2.19
Betano
2.18
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.16
Draw✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.47
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
10Bet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.52
Dafabet
3.50
IFK Varnamo win✓ Hit
39.2%
Avg Implied 30.3% · @ 3.03
Edge
+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.20
1xBet
3.12
Marathonbet
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
10Bet
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ljungskile SK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.29
1.40
1.50
1.27
1.09
vs Stronger (3)
2.00
1.67
1.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
1.24
1.29
1.50
1.38
1.00
1.22
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
19% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Varnamo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IFK Varnamo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.17
1.14
1.57
1.50
2.69
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
3.50
0.00
5.00
1.80
3.20
vs Similar (24)
1.29
1.83
1.23
1.31
1.36
2.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ljungskile SK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
89.6%
@ 1.19+11.1%
Under 1.5
10.4%
@ 4.33-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Under
Pinnacle
4.70
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
72.1%
@ 1.62+14.4%
Under 2.5
27.9%
@ 2.21-14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.65
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Under
10Bet
2.38
Betfair
2.30
Pinnacle
2.26
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.4%
@ 2.53+14.7%
Under 3.5
48.6%
@ 1.47-14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.62
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Superbet
2.52
Under
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Betfair
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
72.4%
@ 1.51+11.1%
No
27.6%
@ 2.39-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
No
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.45
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.39
BetVictor
2.38
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.1%@ 6.72+2.5%
1-2
7.8%@ 9.91+3.4%
2-1
7.7%@ 8.18+2.3%
2-2
7.3%@ 10.76+3.1%
1-3
4.9%@ 20.21+2.7%
3-1
4.7%@ 13.82+1.5%
2-3
4.6%@ 22.80+2.6%
3-2
4.5%@ 18.32+2.1%
Ljungskile SK goals ↓
IFK Varnamo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
3.7%
4.2%
2.7%
1.3%
1
3.6%
9.1%
7.8%
4.9%
2.3%
2
4.1%
7.7%
7.3%
4.6%
2.2%
3
2.5%
4.7%
4.5%
2.8%
1.3%
4
1.2%
2.2%
2.1%
1.3%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ljungskile SK goals (down), columns = IFK Varnamo goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
IFK Norrkoping
2.24
Falkenbergs FF
1.81
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.76
Ostersunds FK
1.67
Osters IF
1.57
United Nordic
1.52
Landskrona BoIS
1.48
Oddevold
1.38
Sandviken
1.29
Helsingborg
1.24
Ljungskile SK
1.14
Norrby IF
1.10
IFK Varnamo
1.05
IK brage
1.00
Orebro SK
0.95
GIF Sundsvall
0.62
Ljungskile SK is 0.10 points better than IFK Varnamo in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkenbergs FF
1.95
IFK Norrkoping
1.95
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.81
IK brage
1.67
Sandviken
1.62
Oddevold
1.62
Helsingborg
1.62
United Nordic
1.52
Osters IF
1.52
Ostersunds FK
1.43
Ljungskile SK
1.29
Landskrona BoIS
1.29
Norrby IF
1.19
IFK Varnamo
1.19
Orebro SK
1.00
GIF Sundsvall
0.71
Ljungskile SK is 0.10 goals better than IFK Varnamo in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
IFK Norrkoping
0.62
Landskrona BoIS
1.05
Ostersunds FK
1.10
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.29
Norrby IF
1.33
Ljungskile SK
1.33
United Nordic
1.43
Osters IF
1.43
Falkenbergs FF
1.43
Sandviken
1.48
Oddevold
1.48
Orebro SK
1.57
IFK Varnamo
1.81
Helsingborg
1.95
IK brage
2.00
GIF Sundsvall
2.10
Ljungskile SK is 0.48 goals better than IFK Varnamo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.81).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Landskrona BoIS
57%
Sandviken
55%
IFK Norrkoping
55%
IFK Varnamo
53%
Ostersunds FK
53%
Osters IF
50%
Orebro SK
50%
Falkenbergs FF
50%
Ljungskile SK
50%
Oddevold
50%
United Nordic
49%
IK brage
48%
Varbergs BoIS FC
47%
Helsingborg
44%
Norrby IF
44%
GIF Sundsvall
41%
Ljungskile SK is 3.4 percentage points worse than IFK Varnamo in terms of average possession (50% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ljungskile SK
For 5.1 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 12.6 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
IFK Varnamo
For 4.1 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 13.0 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ljungskile SK
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (21)
10.2
8.5
11.6
1.8
1.5
2.1
26.6
25.0
27.7
vs Stronger (3)
16.0
-
16.0
0.3
0.0
1.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
9.5
8.5
10.5
2.2
1.9
2.4
26.6
25.0
27.7
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
50%
60%
24%
20%
27%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
44%
50%
40%
76%
80%
73%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (IFK Varnamo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IFK Varnamo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.9
9.7
2.2
2.5
1.9
22.6
22.5
22.7
vs Stronger (17)
11.2
13.1
9.7
3.1
3.3
3.0
23.3
22.3
24.1
vs Similar (32)
10.4
11.0
9.8
1.8
2.2
1.3
21.6
22.7
20.5
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
62%
71%
53%
26%
33%
19%
61%
62%
60%
% under line
38%
29%
47%
74%
67%
81%
39%
38%
40%
This opponent (Ljungskile SK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Osters IF
11.8
IFK Norrkoping
11.5
IFK Varnamo
11.0
Helsingborg
10.4
Landskrona BoIS
10.3
IK brage
10.3
Ljungskile SK
10.2
Varbergs BoIS FC
10.1
GIF Sundsvall
10.0
Sandviken
9.9
Oddevold
9.5
Ostersunds FK
9.4
Orebro SK
9.4
United Nordic
9.1
Norrby IF
9.0
Falkenbergs FF
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
IFK Norrkoping
4.2
Helsingborg
4.1
Landskrona BoIS
4.0
Osters IF
3.9
Ljungskile SK
3.8
Norrby IF
3.8
Varbergs BoIS FC
3.7
Orebro SK
3.7
IK brage
3.6
Ostersunds FK
3.4
IFK Varnamo
3.3
Sandviken
3.3
GIF Sundsvall
3.0
Oddevold
2.9
United Nordic
2.7
Falkenbergs FF
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
United Nordic
29.8
IFK Norrkoping
27.0
Ljungskile SK
26.6
Varbergs BoIS FC
26.6
Osters IF
25.2
Ostersunds FK
25.1
Norrby IF
24.3
Helsingborg
24.2
IK brage
24.1
Landskrona BoIS
23.9
Orebro SK
23.7
Sandviken
23.5
Falkenbergs FF
23.3
IFK Varnamo
22.8
Oddevold
21.4
GIF Sundsvall
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
40.9%
@ 1.55-18.8%
Under 9.5
59.1%
@ 2.29+18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.62
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
Under
Unibet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.36
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.20
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.4%
Under 3.5
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.0%
Under 21.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ljungskile SK or Draw✗ Miss
60.8%
Avg Implied 69.5% · @ 1.34
Edge
-8.6%
38%
23%
39%
covers Ljungskile SK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
10Bet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
Ljungskile SK or IFK Varnamo✓ Hit
76.9%
Avg Implied 74.0% · @ 1.25
Edge
+2.8%
38%
23%
39%
covers Ljungskile SK + IFK Varnamo
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Draw or IFK Varnamo✓ Hit
62.3%
Avg Implied 56.5% · @ 1.64
Edge
+5.8%
38%
23%
39%
covers Draw + IFK Varnamo
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.69
Betano
1.67
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.64
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ljungskile SK over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
84.3%
@ 1.16+4.4%
Under
15.7%
@ 4.62-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Under
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.60
BetVictor
4.50
Ljungskile SK over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
55.2%
@ 1.86+5.3%
Under
44.8%
@ 1.85-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Under
10Bet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Unibet
1.86
Ljungskile SK over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
28.3%
@ 3.71+3.4%
Under
71.7%
@ 1.23-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.88
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
Under
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.24
Ljungskile SK over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 8.00-0.0%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.06+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Betano
7.40
1xBet
7.10
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
IFK Varnamo over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.9%
@ 1.26+11.4%
Under
15.1%
@ 3.49-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.71
10Bet
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.50
IFK Varnamo over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
56.3%
@ 2.32+16.2%
Under
43.7%
@ 1.55-16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.49
BetVictor
2.38
1xBet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
Superbet
2.32
Under
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.54
IFK Varnamo over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
29.3%
@ 5.29+11.8%
Under
70.7%
@ 1.12-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.30
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
IFK Varnamo over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 11.50+4.1%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.03-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ljungskile SK, so a minus line means Ljungskile SK give that many goals of a start and IFK Varnamo receive them. At -1, Ljungskile SK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ljungskile SK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ljungskile SK)Actual: IFK Varnamo
Ljungskile SK -2
9.0%
@ 8.12-2.1%
Draw -2
11.5%
@ 5.97-3.6%
IFK Varnamo +2
79.6%
@ 1.22+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
7.60
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Draw
Marathonbet
6.25
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
5.60
Away
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Handicap -1 (Ljungskile SK)Actual: IFK Varnamo
Ljungskile SK -1
20.4%
@ 3.73-3.5%
Draw -1
17.3%
@ 4.01-4.9%
IFK Varnamo +1
62.3%
@ 1.65+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.75
Away
10Bet
1.67
Unibet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.64
Betfair
1.62
Handicap +1 (Ljungskile SK)Actual: Draw
Ljungskile SK +1
60.8%
@ 1.34-5.8%
Draw +1
17.7%
@ 4.83-0.9%
IFK Varnamo -1
21.5%
@ 6.04+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Away
Unibet
6.10
Marathonbet
6.05
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Handicap +2 (Ljungskile SK)Actual: Ljungskile SK
Ljungskile SK +2
78.5%
@ 1.12-4.9%
Draw +2
11.9%
@ 9.00+1.5%
IFK Varnamo -2
9.6%
@ 15.00+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Away
Bet365
15.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ljungskile SK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.48
0.52
0.60
0.80
0.36
0.27
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.47
0.50
0.62
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Varnamo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IFK Varnamo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.97
0.36
0.50
0.50
1.38
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.88
0.38
0.38
0.36
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ljungskile SK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
71.2%
@ 1.29-0.8%
Under 0.5
28.8%
@ 3.30+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.45
BetVictor
3.40
William Hil
3.40
Superbet
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.4%
@ 2.34-4.1%
Under 1.5
64.6%
@ 1.53+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Pinnacle
2.45
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.36
Under
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.9%
@ 5.34-3.3%
Under 2.5
86.1%
@ 1.11+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.75
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.40
Superbet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ljungskile SK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
52.1%
@ 1.76-0.5%
Under
47.9%
@ 1.96+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Unibet
1.96
Superbet
1.92
Ljungskile SK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.9%
@ 4.82-1.4%
Under
82.1%
@ 1.15+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.00
Betano
4.75
10Bet
4.33
Under
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Ljungskile SK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 10.88-3.9%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
IFK Varnamo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.8%
@ 2.05-6.3%
Under
61.2%
@ 1.69+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
1xBet
2.10
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Under
10Bet
1.73
Superbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.67
IFK Varnamo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 6.24-6.6%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.09+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.90
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
6.00
Betano
5.80
Under
1xBet
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
IFK Varnamo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 16.88-4.6%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ljungskile SK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.76
0.80
0.70
0.91
0.82
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.82
1.00
0.75
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Varnamo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IFK Varnamo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.20
0.79
1.07
1.00
1.31
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.17
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.96
0.85
0.92
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ljungskile SK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.5%
@ 1.16-0.1%
Under 0.5
20.5%
@ 4.55+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Under
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
William Hil
4.40
Superbet
4.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
49.6%
@ 1.82-1.3%
Under 1.5
50.4%
@ 1.89+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
William Hil
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Unibet
1.81
Under
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Unibet
1.86
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.4%
@ 3.48-3.2%
Under 2.5
76.6%
@ 1.26+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.44
Marathonbet
3.44
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ljungskile SK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
59.5%
@ 1.53-1.0%
Under
40.5%
@ 2.34+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Under
10Bet
2.40
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.33
Superbet
2.27
Ljungskile SK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.7%
@ 3.48-1.9%
Under
75.3%
@ 1.26+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.35
Under
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Ljungskile SK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 8.80-4.5%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.04+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.90
10Bet
9.00
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
IFK Varnamo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.1%
@ 1.71-4.1%
Under
49.9%
@ 2.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.65
Under
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
IFK Varnamo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.6%
@ 4.45-6.2%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.17+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.20
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
IFK Varnamo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 10.00-6.0%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.8%
1.09
1xBet
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
91.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
89.6%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
+11.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
88.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
87.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.4%
1.17
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
84.9%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
+11.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.3%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Unibet
1.16
+4.4%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-6.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.1%
1.15
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.6%
1.50
Unibet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.50
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
+19.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
79.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.5%
1.16
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.14
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
78.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-4.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.9%
1.25
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.6%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.3%
1.26
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
72.4%
1.51
Superbet
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
+11.1%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
72.1%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.65
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
+14.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
71.7%
1.23
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.24
-3.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.2%
1.29
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
William Hil
1.29
-0.8%
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
70.9%
1.79
Unibet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
+19.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
70.7%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
-11.8%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ljungskile SK
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mehmet Uzel33%
Jonathan Liljedahl33%
Isaac Shears25%
Gideon Mensah20%
Filip Ambroz20%
Lukas Lindholm Corner20%
Daniel Ljung0%
David Frisk0%
William Nilsson0%
Issaka Seidu0%
Alfons Boren0%
Ivan Marić0%
Emilio Reljanovic0%
Hugo Borstam0%
Daniel Lagerlöf0%
Shakur Omar0%
Lukas Eriksson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Lagerlöf40%
William Nilsson33%
Daniel Ljung25%
Isaac Shears25%
Gideon Mensah20%
Lukas Lindholm Corner20%
Issaka Seidu20%
Ivan Marić20%
David Frisk0%
Filip Ambroz0%
Mehmet Uzel0%
Alfons Boren0%
Jonathan Liljedahl0%
Emilio Reljanovic0%
Hugo Borstam0%
Shakur Omar0%
Lukas Eriksson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Ljung25%
Filip Ambroz20%
Lukas Lindholm Corner20%
Daniel Lagerlöf20%
Lukas Eriksson20%
Gideon Mensah0%
David Frisk0%
Isaac Shears0%
William Nilsson0%
Mehmet Uzel0%
Issaka Seidu0%
Alfons Boren0%
Ivan Marić0%
Jonathan Liljedahl0%
Emilio Reljanovic0%
Hugo Borstam0%
Shakur Omar0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Isaac Shears50%
Lukas Lindholm Corner40%
Gideon Mensah20%
Daniel Lagerlöf20%
Daniel Ljung0%
David Frisk0%
Filip Ambroz0%
William Nilsson0%
Mehmet Uzel0%
Issaka Seidu0%
Alfons Boren0%
Ivan Marić0%
Jonathan Liljedahl0%
Emilio Reljanovic0%
Hugo Borstam0%
Shakur Omar0%
Lukas Eriksson0%
IFK Varnamo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marcus Antonsson33%
Simon Thern33%
Axel Björnström33%
Douglas Bergqvist0%
Hugo Andersson0%
Carl Johansson0%
Logi Hrafn Róbertsson0%
Kai Meriluoto0%
Sigge Jansson0%
Fred Bozicevic0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Carl Johansson33%
Marcus Antonsson0%
Douglas Bergqvist0%
Hugo Andersson0%
Simon Thern0%
Axel Björnström0%
Logi Hrafn Róbertsson0%
Kai Meriluoto0%
Sigge Jansson0%
Fred Bozicevic0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Simon Thern33%
Marcus Antonsson0%
Douglas Bergqvist0%
Hugo Andersson0%
Carl Johansson0%
Axel Björnström0%
Logi Hrafn Róbertsson0%
Kai Meriluoto0%
Sigge Jansson0%
Fred Bozicevic0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Simon Thern33%
Marcus Antonsson0%
Douglas Bergqvist0%
Hugo Andersson0%
Carl Johansson0%
Axel Björnström0%
Logi Hrafn Róbertsson0%
Kai Meriluoto0%
Sigge Jansson0%
Fred Bozicevic0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (25)
€9m
HEL (25)
€7m
LB (20)
€6m
VBF (24)
€6m
FF (19)
€5m
OI (23)
€5m
ODD (23)
€5m
IV (21)
€5m
OS (23)
€5m
IB (23)
€5m
SAN (20)
€4m
GS (22)
€4m
OF (21)
€4m
LS (22)
€3m
UN (17)
€3m
NI (17)
€3m
Ljungskile SK's squad is €2m less valuable than IFK Varnamo's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
IV (7)
€2m
HEL (8)
€2m
FF (8)
€2m
LB (5)
€2m
VBF (7)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
ODD (6)
€1m
SAN (5)
€1m
OS (6)
€1m
GS (8)
€1m
NI (6)
€1m
LS (7)
€1m
IB (5)
€1m
OF (5)
€1m
UN (4)
€0m
Ljungskile SK's attack is €1m less valuable than IFK Varnamo's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (8)
€3m
HEL (7)
€2m
VBF (8)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
OF (6)
€2m
OI (6)
€2m
IB (7)
€1m
ODD (7)
€1m
GS (5)
€1m
SAN (6)
€1m
OS (5)
€1m
LS (4)
€1m
UN (4)
€1m
IV (4)
€1m
FF (2)
€1m
NI (3)
€0m
Ljungskile SK and IFK Varnamo have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IN (9)
€3m
FF (9)
€3m
OS (12)
€3m
ODD (10)
€3m
HEL (10)
€2m
LB (8)
€2m
IB (11)
€2m
VBF (9)
€2m
OI (10)
€2m
UN (9)
€2m
SAN (9)
€2m
IV (10)
€2m
OF (10)
€2m
GS (9)
€2m
LS (11)
€2m
NI (8)
€1m
Ljungskile SK and IFK Varnamo have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Sweden: Superettan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Superettan stats & trends →
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IFK Norrkoping
Falkenbergs FF
Varbergs BoIS FC
Ostersunds FK
Osters IF
United Nordic
Landskrona BoIS
Oddevold
Sandviken
Helsingborg
Norrby IF
IK brage
Orebro SK
GIF Sundsvall