Defensive caution will shape the encounter, with Llanelli AFC conceding an average of 2.27 goals at home and Baglan Dragons allowing 1.27 away. The model favours a draw, assigning 36% to a stalemate, 30% to a home win and 35% to an away win. The expected total goals sit at 1.8, yet the most probable scoreline is 0-0, carrying an 18% chance. The single most likely total of goals is two, with a 28% probability.
Llanelli’s home form shows 0.64 goals scored per game against similar opposition, while Baglan’s away scoring averages 0.55. Both sides have struggled recently, each coming off a defeat.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.8%), Under 5.5 (99.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 4.5 (96.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (94.6%) and Away under 2.5 goals (93.0%). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 2.63 | 0.73 | 2.40 | 0.60 | 2.87 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.25 | 2.75 | 1.00 | 2.33 | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.56 | 2.56 | 0.64 | 2.27 | 0.50 | 2.79 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 4.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.70 | 0.93 | 2.14 | 0.56 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.86 | 1.77 | 1.18 | 2.27 | 0.55 | 1.27 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.38 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.67 | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Baglan Dragons goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 18% | 14% | 7.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 13% | 15% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 6.0% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 1.17 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.36 | 1.08 | 0.36 | 0.91 | 0.36 | 1.21 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.85 | 0.35 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.59 | 0.64 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.12 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.20 | 1.47 | 0.20 | 1.40 | 0.20 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.20 | 1.48 | 0.27 | 1.36 | 0.14 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.20 | 1.07 | 0.15 | 1.38 | 0.24 | 0.82 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.18 | 1.18 | 0.20 | 1.50 | 0.17 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.25 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 99.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 99.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 98.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 98.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 96.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 94.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 93.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 89.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 89.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 86.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 goals | 79.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 goals | 75.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 | 73.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Draw or Away | 70.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +1 handicap | 70.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/12/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 23/08/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 02/03/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 08/09/23 | H | 2-1 |
llanelli AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 1-2 |
Baglan Dragons| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 09/08/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 31/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-7 | |
| 24/03/26 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |