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llanelli AFC vs Carmarthen Town Result & Analysis

Date: 28/08/2026
Time: 18:30
Final 2-2
llanelli AFC
llanelli AFC
Vs
20%
24%
56%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Carmarthen Town
Carmarthen Town
Wales: FAW Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

After two consecutive defeats, Llanelli AFC’s recent form has dipped, while Carmarthen Town, despite a loss, has shown a stronger run of results. The model’s most confident outcome is an away win, with a 53% chance for Carmarthen, 21% for Llanelli and 25% for a draw. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a modestly high-scoring match, yet the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12% probability. Llanelli’s home attack averages 0.5 goals and they concede 2.5 against stronger opponents, whereas Carmarthen’s away scoring rate of 1.43 goals and 1.71 conceded against weaker sides suggests they can exploit the home side’s defensive frailties. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.2%), Under 6.5 (97.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.8%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.5%), Under 5.5 (92.7% with a 10% edge) and Away +2 handicap (91.6%). These selections reflect the model’s view that Carmarthen will edge out Llanelli while keeping the total goals on the lower side.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Carmarthen Town, fell short as the match finished 2-2, a draw that extended Llanelli AFC’s recent run of a single draw. The model had tipped an away win with a 56% probability, but that call proved wrong. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 98.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.8%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.7%, Under 6.5 at 96.9%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.9%, Away +2 handicap at 92.5%, and Under 5.5 at 92.2%. The match delivered a low-scoring affair, with both sides scoring twice, confirming the model’s over-optimistic expectations for Carmarthen.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

llanelli AFC win✗ Miss
19.6%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.45
Edge
-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Dafabet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.52
Superbet
3.50
Draw✓ Hit
24.3%
Avg Implied 23.5% · @ 3.85
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
Dafabet
3.95
Pinnacle
3.93
Bet365
3.90
Superbet
3.85
Carmarthen Town win✗ Miss
56.0%
Avg Implied 50.3% · @ 1.80
Edge
+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.82
Dafabet
1.82
William Hil
1.80

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

llanelli AFCllanelli AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D02L12L21W05L06L14L11D03L24LA·BAL27/02H·BRI13/03H·CAR20/03A·FLI28/03H·BAL03/04A·HAV18/04H·NEW31/07H·TRE07/08A·SWA15/08A·CAR22/08← Premier LeagueFAW Championship →
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.702.470.672.270.732.67
vs Stronger (3)1.003.000.502.502.004.00
vs Similar (26)0.652.350.672.080.642.57
vs Weaker (1)1.004.001.004.00--
Clean sheet %10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Carmarthen Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-754W32W00D70W01L14L43W21W31W24LA·TRE06/03A·CAR14/03H·YNY21/03A·BAG28/03H·PON04/04A·TRE18/04H·CAE01/08A·NEW08/08H·AFA14/08H·TRE22/08
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.571.351.292.381.92
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)2.411.761.821.553.502.17
vs Weaker (13)1.001.310.500.831.431.71
Clean sheet %23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (llanelli AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.3%
@ 1.11-1.4%
Under 1.5
19.7%
@ 4.95+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Under
1xBet
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.4%
@ 1.43-7.5%
Under 2.5
43.6%
@ 2.54+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.60
Superbet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.0%
@ 2.07-10.3%
Under 3.5
66.0%
@ 1.65+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.66
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.62
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.2%
@ 1.43-7.8%
No
43.8%
@ 2.55+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
No
1xBet
2.59
Superbet
2.57
Marathonbet
2.53
William Hil
2.50

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%@ 7.88+6.1%
1-2
9.9%@ 8.25+4.8%
0-2
9.5%@ 10.25+5.3%
0-1
8.9%@ 10.50+4.9%
0-0
6.3%@ 18.00+4.0%
1-3
6.3%@ 12.25+2.8%
0-3
6.0%@ 14.50+3.0%
2-1
5.5%@ 11.50+1.8%
llanelli AFC goals ↓
Carmarthen Town goals →
01234
06.3%8.9%9.5%6.0%2.8%
14.5%12%9.9%6.3%3.0%
22.9%5.5%5.2%3.3%1.6%
31.0%1.9%1.8%1.1%0.5%
40.3%0.5%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = llanelli AFC goals (down), columns = Carmarthen Town goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Swansea University
2.60
Pontypridd Town
2.60
Newtown AFC
2.60
Brickfield Rangers
2.50
Bala Town
2.40
Aberystwyth Town
2.40
Mold Alexandra
2.17
Bangor City 1876 FC
2.00
Caersws
2.00
Porthmadog
1.83
Treowen Stars
1.80
Carmarthen Town
1.67
Baglan Dragons
1.67
Ynyshir Albions
1.60
Guilsfield
1.50
Rhyl
1.40
Caerphilly Athletic
1.40
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.33
Llanuwchllyn
1.20
Newport City
1.20
Afan Lido
1.17
Caerau (Ely)
1.17
Cardiff Draconians
1.00
Holyhead Hotspur
0.80
Ruthin Town
0.67
Buckley Town
0.67
Denbigh Town
0.67
Pontardawe Town
0.60
llanelli AFC
0.33
Penrhyncoch
0.20
Llantwit Major
0.00
Gresford Athletic
0.00
llanelli AFC is 1.33 points worse than Carmarthen Town in terms of average points per game (0.33 vs 1.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Swansea University
3.60
Pontypridd Town
3.20
Aberystwyth Town
3.20
Brickfield Rangers
2.83
Newtown AFC
2.80
Treowen Stars
2.60
Carmarthen Town
2.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
2.33
Caerau (Ely)
2.17
Bala Town
2.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
2.00
Mold Alexandra
2.00
Guilsfield
2.00
Caersws
2.00
Afan Lido
1.83
Porthmadog
1.83
Denbigh Town
1.83
Rhyl
1.80
Newport City
1.80
Holyhead Hotspur
1.40
Cardiff Draconians
1.25
Buckley Town
1.17
llanelli AFC
1.00
Llanuwchllyn
1.00
Pontardawe Town
1.00
Ruthin Town
1.00
Baglan Dragons
0.83
Ynyshir Albions
0.80
Penrhyncoch
0.60
Caerphilly Athletic
0.60
Llantwit Major
0.25
Gresford Athletic
0.00
llanelli AFC is 1.50 goals worse than Carmarthen Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Newtown AFC
0.20
Ynyshir Albions
0.60
Brickfield Rangers
0.67
Bala Town
0.80
Baglan Dragons
0.83
Swansea University
1.00
Mold Alexandra
1.00
Aberystwyth Town
1.00
Newport City
1.00
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.33
Caerphilly Athletic
1.40
Caersws
1.40
Porthmadog
1.50
Guilsfield
1.50
Rhyl
1.60
Cardiff Draconians
1.75
Treowen Stars
1.80
Holyhead Hotspur
1.80
Pontardawe Town
1.80
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.83
Buckley Town
1.83
Pontypridd Town
2.00
Afan Lido
2.17
Ruthin Town
2.17
Carmarthen Town
2.33
Denbigh Town
2.33
Gresford Athletic
2.80
Caerau (Ely)
2.83
llanelli AFC
3.00
Llanuwchllyn
3.00
Penrhyncoch
3.20
Llantwit Major
3.50
llanelli AFC is 0.67 goals worse than Carmarthen Town in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 2.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
llanelli AFC or Draw✓ Hit
44.0%
Avg Implied 49.5% · @ 1.86
Edge
-5.5%
20%
24%
56%
covers llanelli AFC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.00
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
llanelli AFC or Carmarthen Town✗ Miss
75.7%
Avg Implied 76.6% · @ 1.20
Edge
-0.9%
20%
24%
56%
covers llanelli AFC + Carmarthen Town
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Draw or Carmarthen Town✓ Hit
80.4%
Avg Implied 73.9% · @ 1.24
Edge
+6.4%
20%
24%
56%
covers Draw + Carmarthen Town
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.25

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
llanelli AFC over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.0%
@ 1.25-7.8%
Under
35.0%
@ 3.32+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Under
1xBet
3.34
Superbet
3.30
llanelli AFC over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
28.2%
@ 2.28-12.3%
Under
71.8%
@ 1.55+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.29
Pinnacle
2.29
Superbet
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
llanelli AFC over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 4.62-10.7%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.13+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.65
1xBet
4.60
Under
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.11
llanelli AFC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carmarthen Town over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.9%
@ 1.08+1.2%
Under
15.1%
@ 5.58-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Under
1xBet
5.85
Superbet
5.30
Carmarthen Town over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
56.4%
@ 1.56-2.5%
Under
43.6%
@ 2.24+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.59
Superbet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.27
1xBet
2.24
Marathonbet
2.24
Superbet
2.22
Carmarthen Town over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
29.5%
@ 2.70-4.3%
Under
70.5%
@ 1.38+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.72
Marathonbet
2.72
Superbet
2.67
Under
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Carmarthen Town over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 4.83-6.5%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.12+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
4.15
Under
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.10

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to llanelli AFC, so a minus line means llanelli AFC give that many goals of a start and Carmarthen Town receive them. At -1, llanelli AFC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal llanelli AFC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (llanelli AFC)Actual: Carmarthen Town
llanelli AFC -2
2.1%
Draw -2
5.4%
Carmarthen Town +2
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (llanelli AFC)Actual: Carmarthen Town
llanelli AFC -1
7.5%
Draw -1
12.1%
Carmarthen Town +1
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (llanelli AFC)Actual: llanelli AFC
llanelli AFC +1
44.0%
@ 1.88-2.4%
Draw +1
22.7%
@ 3.71-0.7%
Carmarthen Town -1
33.3%
@ 2.88+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.91
Marathonbet
1.84
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
Away
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
Handicap +2 (llanelli AFC)Actual: llanelli AFC
llanelli AFC +2
66.7%
@ 1.32+0.4%
Draw +2
17.5%
@ 5.10+0.3%
Carmarthen Town -2
15.8%
@ 5.30-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.32
Draw
Marathonbet
5.10
Away
Marathonbet
5.30

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

llanelli AFCllanelli AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L01L10W02L03L13L10W01L13LA·BAL27/02H·BRI13/03H·CAR20/03A·FLI28/03H·BAL03/04A·HAV18/04H·NEW31/07H·TRE07/08A·SWA15/08A·CAR22/08← Premier LeagueFAW Championship →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.130.470.930.401.33
vs Stronger (3)0.671.330.500.501.003.00
vs Similar (26)0.381.040.420.830.361.21
vs Weaker (1)1.003.001.003.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Carmarthen Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W32W00D20W01L00D00D20W11D10WA·TRE06/03A·CAR14/03H·YNY21/03A·BAG28/03H·PON04/04A·TRE18/04H·CAE01/08A·NEW08/08H·AFA14/08H·TRE22/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.470.410.411.080.54
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.760.590.550.641.170.50
vs Weaker (13)0.620.310.170.001.000.57
Clean sheet %60% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (llanelli AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.2%
@ 1.21-1.8%
Under 0.5
25.8%
@ 3.83+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.90
William Hil
3.80
Superbet
3.60
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.7%
@ 2.09-0.2%
Under 1.5
56.3%
@ 1.64+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Under
Superbet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Betfair
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.2%
@ 4.42-3.5%
Under 2.5
82.8%
@ 1.16+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
William Hil
4.50
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.10
Under
1xBet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
llanelli AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.0%
@ 2.03+3.4%
Under
51.0%
@ 1.70-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Under
Superbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
1xBet
1.70
llanelli AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
14.3%
@ 5.85-1.6%
Under
85.7%
@ 1.10+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.85
Under
1xBet
1.10
llanelli AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 11.00-6.1%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Carmarthen Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
51.7%
@ 1.58-6.7%
Under
48.3%
@ 2.21+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.59
Superbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.22
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Carmarthen Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
22.5%
@ 3.60-2.9%
Under
77.5%
@ 1.23+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.23
Carmarthen Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 8.45-6.8%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.04+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.45
Under
1xBet
1.04

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

llanelli AFCllanelli AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L11D11D03L03L01L01L02L11DA·BAL27/02H·BRI13/03H·CAR20/03A·FLI28/03H·BAL03/04A·HAV18/04H·NEW31/07H·TRE07/08A·SWA15/08A·CAR22/08← Premier LeagueFAW Championship →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.271.330.201.330.331.33
vs Stronger (3)0.331.670.002.001.001.00
vs Similar (26)0.271.310.251.250.291.36
vs Weaker (1)0.001.000.001.00--
Clean sheet %20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Carmarthen Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-533D00D00D50W00D14L43W01L20W14LA·TRE06/03A·CAR14/03H·YNY21/03A·BAG28/03H·PON04/04A·TRE18/04H·CAE01/08A·NEW08/08H·AFA14/08H·TRE22/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.100.940.881.311.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.651.181.270.912.331.67
vs Weaker (13)0.381.000.330.830.431.14
Clean sheet %47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (llanelli AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.6%
@ 1.10+2.2%
Under 0.5
15.4%
@ 5.17-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Under
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
4.85
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
53.0%
@ 1.65-2.7%
Under 1.5
47.0%
@ 2.08+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Under
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.6%
@ 2.85+5.6%
Under 2.5
62.4%
@ 1.34-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.90
1xBet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.75
Under
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.32

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
llanelli AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.5%
@ 1.73+0.1%
Under
46.5%
@ 1.99-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.74
Superbet
1.72
Under
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.97
llanelli AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.7%
@ 4.40-1.2%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.16+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.40
Under
1xBet
1.16
llanelli AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 10.00-4.2%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.02+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Under
1xBet
1.02
Carmarthen Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
64.9%
@ 1.39-0.5%
Under
35.1%
@ 2.62+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Under
Superbet
2.65
1xBet
2.59
Carmarthen Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
26.0%
@ 2.76-6.9%
Under
74.0%
@ 1.35+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.82
Superbet
2.70
Under
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.34
Carmarthen Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 6.85-1.6%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.07+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.85
Under
1xBet
1.07

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.598.9%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals97.8%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals97.7%1.01
1xBet
1.01
----+6.1%✓ Hit
Under 6.596.9%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals95.8%1.04
1xBet
1.04
----+6.8%✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals94.9%1.02
1xBet
1.02
----+4.2%✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap92.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.592.2%1.09
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.08
---+8.2%✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals91.0%1.13
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.11
---+10.7%✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals88.0%1.07
1xBet
1.07
----+1.6%✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals87.6%1.12
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.10
---+6.5%✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals85.7%1.10
1xBet
1.10
----+1.6%✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals84.9%1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
---+1.2%✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals84.6%1.10
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
---+2.2%✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals82.8%1.16
1xBet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-+3.5%✗ Miss
Under 4.582.5%1.24
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
--+9.6%✓ Hit
Draw or Away80.4%1.24
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+6.4%✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap80.4%-------✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals80.3%1.16
1xBet
1.16
----+1.2%✓ Hit
Over 1.580.3%1.11
1xBet
1.12
Superbet
1.10
----1.4%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals77.5%1.23
1xBet
1.23
----+2.9%✓ Hit
Home or Away75.7%1.20
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
-0.9%✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals74.2%1.21
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.20
--1.8%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals74.0%1.35
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.34
---+6.9%✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals71.8%1.55
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
-+12.3%✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals70.5%1.38
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
--+4.3%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (12)
€1m
NC (4)
€0m
AT (2)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (4)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
NC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BT (6)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
LA wins
2
Draws
1
CT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

llanelli AFC vs Carmarthen Town · H/A from LA
DateH/AGameScore
30/11/24ACarmarthen Town Vs LA1-1
16/08/24HLA Vs Carmarthen Town1-1
16/03/24ACarmarthen Town Vs LA0-1
18/08/23HLA Vs Carmarthen Town4-3
11/02/23ACarmarthen Town Vs LA1-3
04/11/22HLA Vs Carmarthen Town0-3

llanelli AFCllanelli AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/08/26ACardiff Draconians Vs LA4-2
15/08/26ASwansea University Vs LA3-0
07/08/26HLA Vs Trethomas Bluebirds1-1
31/07/26HLA Vs Newport City1-4
18/04/26AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs LA6-0
03/04/26HLA Vs Bala Town0-5
28/03/26AFlint Town United Vs LA1-2
20/03/26HLA Vs Cardiff MET1-2
13/03/26HLA Vs Briton Ferry0-2
27/02/26ABala Town Vs LA0-0

Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/08/26HCT Vs Treowen Stars2-4
14/08/26HCT Vs Afan Lido3-1
08/08/26ANewport City Vs CT1-2
01/08/26HCT Vs Caerau (Ely)4-3
18/04/26ATreowen Stars Vs CT4-1
04/04/26HCT Vs Pontypridd Town0-1
28/03/26ABaglan Dragons Vs CT0-7
21/03/26HCT Vs Ynyshir Albions0-0
14/03/26ACardiff Draconians Vs CT2-3
06/03/26ATrethomas Bluebirds Vs CT4-5

📊 16. Overall Statistics

llanelli AFC
llanelli AFC
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL0.82
HomeLLLLD0.68
AwayDWLLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%16%28%
AVG goals3.102.803.40
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %60%48%72%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored0.880.800.96
Conceded2.222.002.44
BTTS48%40%56%
Clean Sheet14%16%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Carmarthen Town
Carmarthen Town
Wales: FAW Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWL1.58
HomeDLWWL1.58
AwayWWWLW1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%38%46%
AVG goals3.322.813.88
Over 1.5 %78%69%88%
Over 2.5 %50%38%62%
Over 3.5 %40%35%46%
Scored1.841.582.12
Conceded1.481.231.75
BTTS58%58%58%
Clean Sheet28%31%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Brickfield RangersBrickfield Rangers615
83%
2.5
174+13
3.5
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.7
-
2Swansea UniversitySwansea University513
80%
2.6
185+13
4.6
100%
100%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.61.0
-
3Newtown AFCNewtown AFC513
80%
2.6
141+13
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.2
-
4Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town513
80%
2.6
1610+6
5.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.22.0
-
5Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra613
67%
2.2
126+6
3.0
67%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
6Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town512
80%
2.4
165+11
4.2
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.21.0
-
7Bangor City 1876 FCBangor City 1876 FC612
67%
2.0
148+6
3.7
100%
100%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
8Bala TownBala Town512
80%
2.4
104+6
2.8
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.8
-
9PorthmadogPorthmadog611
50%
1.8
119+2
3.3
83%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.5
-
10CaerswsCaersws510
60%
2.0
107+3
3.4
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
11Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town610
50%
1.7
1514+1
4.8
100%
100%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.52.3
-
12Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons610
50%
1.7
55+0
1.7
33%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.8
-
13Treowen StarsTreowen Stars59
60%
1.8
139+4
4.4
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.8
-
14GuilsfieldGuilsfield69
33%
1.5
129+3
3.5
100%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
15Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds68
33%
1.3
1211+1
3.8
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.8
-
16Ynyshir AlbionsYnyshir Albions58
40%
1.6
43+1
1.4
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.6
-
17RhylRhyl57
40%
1.4
98+1
3.4
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.6
-
18Afan LidoAfan Lido67
33%
1.2
1113-2
4.0
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.2
-
19Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)67
33%
1.2
1317-4
5.0
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.8
-
20Caerphilly AthleticCaerphilly Athletic57
40%
1.4
37-4
2.0
60%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
21Newport CityNewport City56
40%
1.2
95+4
2.8
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
22LlanuwchllynLlanuwchllyn56
40%
1.2
515-10
4.0
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
23Holyhead HotspurHolyhead Hotspur54
20%
0.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
24Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians44
25%
1.0
57-2
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
25Denbigh TownDenbigh Town64
17%
0.7
1114-3
4.2
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
26Buckley TownBuckley Town64
17%
0.7
711-4
3.0
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
27Ruthin TownRuthin Town64
17%
0.7
613-7
3.2
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
28Pontardawe TownPontardawe Town53
20%
0.6
59-4
2.8
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
29llanelli AFCllanelli AFC62
0%
0.3
618-12
4.0
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
30PenrhyncochPenrhyncoch51
0%
0.2
316-13
3.8
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.2
-
31Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major40
0%
0.0
114-13
3.8
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.23.5
-
32Gresford AthleticGresford Athletic50
0%
0.0
014-14
2.8
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.8
-
Wales: FAW Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →

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