Llanelli AFC is expected to edge out Newport City in a closely contested match. The recent form of both teams suggests that Llanelli AFC is coming off a draw, while Newport City is coming off a defeat. However, Llanelli AFC has a slight advantage, with a 53% chance of winning, 25% chance of a draw, and 22% chance of an away win.
The expected total goals is 3.0, with the most likely score being 2-0, but the most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 11.6% probability. Llanelli AFC has averaged 0.6 goals scored and 2.5 conceded at home against similar opponents, while Newport City has averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded away against similar opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 81.2% probability, and the model predicts a home win. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, which is expected to hit, and has an 81.2% probability. Llanelli AFC's home win percentage is 53%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 22%.
The away team, Newport City, pulled off a stunning upset, defeating Llanelli AFC 1-4 at home, extending their run of scoring at least two goals in their last five matches. The win marks a turning point in their recent form, coming off a defeat. The pre-match favourite, Llanelli AFC, was predicted to win by the model, which assigned them a 53% probability of success, but unfortunately, the model's call was incorrect. The model's selection, Llanelli AFC to win, was a 53% probability, but they ultimately fell short. Meanwhile, the model's suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit at 81.2% probability, and the most likely total goals was 2, with a 23% probability.
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 2.47 | 0.50 | 2.19 | 0.64 | 2.79 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 5.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.61 | 2.29 | 0.53 | 2.07 | 0.69 | 2.54 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 1.77 | 1.44 | 1.62 | 1.07 | 1.93 |
| vs Stronger (25) | 1.48 | 1.72 | 1.77 | 1.54 | 1.17 | 1.92 |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.20 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Newport City goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 12% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.6% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 5.4% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.33 | 1.13 | 0.31 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.36 | 1.11 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 1.23 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.36 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (25) | 0.60 | 0.68 | 0.85 | 0.62 | 0.33 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.23 | 1.33 | 0.19 | 1.19 | 0.29 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 3.50 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.25 | 1.18 | 0.20 | 1.07 | 0.31 | 1.31 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.03 | 0.75 | 0.94 | 0.71 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (25) | 0.88 | 1.04 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81.2% | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.15 | - | - | +2.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 04/10/24 | H | 2-3 |
llanelli AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 27/02/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 20/02/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 13/02/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 07/02/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 23/01/26 | A | 3-1 |
Newport City| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 09/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 4-4 | |
| 20/02/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 13/02/26 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swansea University | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | Brickfield Rangers | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 3 | Pontypridd Town | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 4 | Porthmadog | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | Bala Town | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 9 | Newtown AFC | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | - |
| 10 | Mold Alexandra | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 11 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.2 | 25% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 12 | Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 5.3 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | - |
| 13 | Newport City | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 14 | Afan Lido | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 4.2 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Guilsfield | 4 | 6 | 25% | 1.5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 16 | Rhyl | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3.0 | 67% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 17 | Ynyshir Albions | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 18 | Ruthin Town | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 19 | Caersws | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3.7 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 21 | Caerau (Ely) | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 5.2 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | - |
| 22 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Denbigh Town | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 24 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Pontardawe Town | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 26 | Llanuwchllyn | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.7 | - |
| 27 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 28 | Buckley Town | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.3 | - |
| 31 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 32 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |