The model favours an away win, with Treowen Stars beating Llanelli AFC 1-1 as the most likely scoreline at 12.9 %. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the single most probable total is 2 goals, a 25 % chance. Llanelli’s home form shows a modest 0.5 goals per game and a 1.67 average conceded, while Treowen’s away attack averages 2.11 goals and concedes 2.56, reflecting similar opponent strength on both sides.
Home win 29 %, draw 27 %, away win 44 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2 %), Under 6.5 (97.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.3 %), Under 5.5 (93.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (92.4 %), Away +2 handicap (87.5 %), Home under 2.5 goals (87.2 %), and Under 4.5 (84.5 %). The edge for each pick is omitted as no edge_pct is provided.
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 2.63 | 0.73 | 2.40 | 0.60 | 2.87 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.25 | 2.75 | 1.00 | 2.33 | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.56 | 2.56 | 0.64 | 2.27 | 0.50 | 2.79 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 4.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Treowen Stars| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.03 | 2.10 | 1.88 | 1.56 | 2.21 | 2.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 2.18 | 1.91 | 1.92 | 1.25 | 2.50 | 2.70 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.62 | 2.62 | 1.75 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Treowen Stars goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| 1 | 5.5% | 12% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 4.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 1.17 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.36 | 1.08 | 0.36 | 0.91 | 0.36 | 1.21 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Treowen Stars| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.83 | 0.44 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.59 | 0.91 | 0.58 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.12 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.20 | 1.47 | 0.20 | 1.40 | 0.20 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.20 | 1.48 | 0.27 | 1.36 | 0.14 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Treowen Stars| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.27 | 1.44 | 0.94 | 1.71 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.59 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.90 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 2.25 | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 98.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 97.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 96.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 96.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 95.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 94.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 93.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 91.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 91.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 86.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 85.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 85.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 84.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 83.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 81.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 81.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 81.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 81.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 77.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 76.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 76.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 74.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 72.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
llanelli AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 1-2 |
Treowen Stars| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-5 | |
| 23/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 2-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |