In the Wales FAW Championship, Llanelli AFC host Trethomas Bluebirds on August 7. The recent form of these teams has been closely tied, with their last two meetings ending in draws. Llanelli AFC's recent draw against Trethomas Bluebirds has set the stage for this match.
Llanelli AFC is the favourite to win, with a 49% chance of victory, followed by a 26% chance of Trethomas Bluebirds winning, and a 25% chance of a draw. The expected total goals in this match is 3.2, suggesting a high-scoring encounter. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.3% probability.
At home, Llanelli AFC has averaged 0.5 goals per game, while conceding 1.92 goals. In contrast, Trethomas Bluebirds, when playing away, has scored 0.64 goals per game against opponents of similar strength, while conceding 1.55 goals. The model's selection is the home win, with the model also suggesting Over 1.5 goals, which has an 83.5% probability of being correct. This selection has a 5% edge. The model also suggests Llanelli AFC to win, with a 49% probability, and Trethomas Bluebirds to win, with a 26% probability. The home win percentage is 49%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 26%.
A surprise draw at Llanelli AFC, as they edged out Trethomas Bluebirds 1-1. This result extends their unbeaten run, having drawn their last five matches. The model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 49%. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was a draw. The model's selection was not the favourite, but it was still a popular choice. The Over 1.5 selection, with a probability of 83.5%, hit, as the total goals scored was indeed more than 1.5.
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 2.57 | 0.56 | 2.38 | 0.64 | 2.79 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 5.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.63 | 2.33 | 0.57 | 2.14 | 0.69 | 2.54 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 4.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 2.13 | 2.07 | 2.13 | 0.87 | 2.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.58 | 2.16 | 2.30 | 2.20 | 0.78 | 2.11 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.27 | 2.09 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Trethomas Bluebirds goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 11% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.3% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 4.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 1.20 | 0.38 | 1.12 | 0.36 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.37 | 1.11 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 1.23 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.87 | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.58 | 0.68 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.55 | 0.82 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.23 | 1.37 | 0.19 | 1.25 | 0.29 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 3.50 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.26 | 1.22 | 0.21 | 1.14 | 0.31 | 1.31 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Trethomas Bluebirds| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.27 | 0.47 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.00 | 1.47 | 1.50 | 1.30 | 0.44 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.73 | 1.27 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83.5% | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.15 | - | +5.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 07/09/24 | A | 1-4 |
llanelli AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 27/02/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 20/02/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 13/02/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 07/02/26 | H | 0-2 |
Trethomas Bluebirds| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 4-4 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 09/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 4-5 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 20/02/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 3 | Brickfield Rangers | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Bala Town | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 6 | Newtown AFC | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 3.5 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 0.2 | - |
| 7 | Mold Alexandra | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 60% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 10 | Baglan Dragons | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 1.8 | 40% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 11 | Aberystwyth Town | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 4.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 12 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Caersws | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Ynyshir Albions | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.8 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 16 | Guilsfield | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 17 | Afan Lido | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.8 | 80% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.6 | - |
| 18 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 3.6 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | - |
| 19 | Denbigh Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 20 | Rhyl | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 21 | Buckley Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Caerau (Ely) | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 5.0 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 24 | Ruthin Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3.4 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 25 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 26 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 28 | Llanuwchllyn | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.0 | - |
| 31 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 32 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |