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Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons Result & Analysis

Date: 20/09/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 2-0
Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major
Vs
54%
29%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons
Wales: Welsh Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Llantwit Major win✓ Hit
54.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons win✗ Miss
16.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L10W01L12L12L00D12L33D21W00DA·NEW28/03H·CAE05/04A·CWM12/04H·ABE26/07A·AMM08/08H·CAR16/08A·CAM22/08A·TRE25/08H·TRE06/09A·CAE12/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.131.130.930.931.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.000.901.180.820.801.00
vs Weaker (9)1.111.671.001.251.202.00
Clean sheet %30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Baglan Dragons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D30W12L33D01L00D11D00D12LH·CAR05/04A·AMM12/04H·PON27/07A·ABE09/08H·NEW17/08A·CAE22/08A·CAR25/08H·TRE06/09H·CAR13/09A·CAE17/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.971.931.070.930.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.430.761.800.701.090.82
vs Weaker (9)1.441.442.201.800.501.00
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Llantwit Major) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%022%128%220%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.6%
Under 1.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.5%
Under 2.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.9%
Under 3.5
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.6%
No
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.3%
1-1
13.0%
0-0
12.3%
2-0 ✓
12.2%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
6.8%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
4.3%
Llantwit Major goals ↓
Baglan Dragons goals →
01234
012%6.8%2.8%0.7%0.1%
115%13%4.2%1.0%0.2%
212%8.7%3.1%0.7%0.1%
36.0%4.3%1.5%0.4%0.1%
42.2%1.6%0.6%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Llantwit Major goals (down), columns = Baglan Dragons goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
3.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
llanelli AFC
2.40
Trearddur Bay
2.33
Denbigh Town
2.25
Caersws
2.25
Airbus UK
2.25
Llandudno
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.00
Trefelin
2.00
Pill AFC
2.00
Buckley Town
2.00
Flint Town United
2.00
Llantwit Major
2.00
Swansea University
2.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
2.00
Mold Alexandra
2.00
Caerau (Ely)
1.75
Morriston Town
1.67
Penydarren BGC
1.67
Cambrian & Clydach
1.60
Kinmel Bay
1.50
Llanefydd
1.50
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
1.50
Porthmadog
1.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Cardiff Draconians
1.50
Briton Ferry
1.50
Cardiff MET
1.50
Penrhyncoch
1.50
Holyhead Hotspur
1.50
Gresford Athletic
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Bala Town
1.33
Carmarthen Town
1.25
Barry Town
1.00
Caernarfon Town
1.00
Evans & Williams
1.00
Cefn Cribwr
1.00
Saltney Town
1.00
Afan United
1.00
Nefyn United
1.00
Tredegar Town
1.00
Lliswerry
1.00
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
1.00
Goytre United
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
CPD Sychdyn United
1.00
Berriew
1.00
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
1.00
Llanfair United
1.00
Glynneath Town
1.00
Dinas Powys
1.00
Llanrug United
1.00
Blaenavon Blues
1.00
Port Talbot Town
1.00
Pentwynmawr Athletic
1.00
Pwllheli
1.00
Abercarn United
1.00
Rhostyllen
1.00
Forden United
1.00
Broughton United FC
1.00
Dolgellau Athletic
1.00
Hawarden Rangers
1.00
Penygraig United FC
1.00
Bow Street
1.00
Welshpool Town
1.00
Tata Steel
1.00
Cwmbach Royal Stars
1.00
Ynyshir Albions
1.00
Treowen Stars
1.00
Caerphilly Athletic
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Newtown AFC
1.00
Afan Lido
1.00
Pontyclun
1.00
Cwm Welfare AFC
1.00
Garden Village
1.00
Canton Liberal
1.00
Rhayader Town
1.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.67
Ruthin Town
0.50
Rhyl
0.50
Baglan Dragons
0.00
Queens Park
0.00
St Asaph City
0.00
Taffs Well
0.00
Cefn Albion
0.00
Llanberis
0.00
Cwmbran Town
0.00
NFA
0.00
Llwydcoed
0.00
Caldicot Town
0.00
Cwmbran Celtic
0.00
Penybont
0.00
Brickfield Rangers
0.00
Guilsfield
0.00
Aberystwyth Town
0.00
Pontypridd Town
0.00
Newport City
0.00
Llantwit Major is 2.00 points better than Baglan Dragons in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
5.83
Gresford Athletic
5.00
Buckley Town
4.50
Denbigh Town
3.50
Caersws
3.50
Flint Town United
3.50
Llandudno
3.33
Trefelin
3.33
Barry Town
3.00
Kinmel Bay
3.00
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
3.00
Cwmbran Celtic
3.00
Caerau (Ely)
3.00
Porthmadog
3.00
Airbus UK
2.75
Rhyl
2.50
Penydarren BGC
2.33
Swansea University
2.33
llanelli AFC
2.20
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.17
Briton Ferry
2.00
Carmarthen Town
1.75
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Bala Town
1.67
Mold Alexandra
1.67
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Cardiff Draconians
1.50
Llantwit Major
1.50
Penrhyncoch
1.50
Evans & Williams
1.46
Cefn Cribwr
1.46
Saltney Town
1.46
Afan United
1.46
Nefyn United
1.46
Tredegar Town
1.46
Lliswerry
1.46
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
1.46
CPD Sychdyn United
1.46
Berriew
1.46
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
1.46
Llanfair United
1.46
Glynneath Town
1.46
Dinas Powys
1.46
Llanrug United
1.46
Blaenavon Blues
1.46
Port Talbot Town
1.46
Pentwynmawr Athletic
1.46
Pwllheli
1.46
Abercarn United
1.46
Rhostyllen
1.46
Forden United
1.46
Broughton United FC
1.46
Dolgellau Athletic
1.46
Hawarden Rangers
1.46
Penygraig United FC
1.46
Bow Street
1.46
Welshpool Town
1.46
Tata Steel
1.46
Cwmbach Royal Stars
1.46
Ynyshir Albions
1.46
Treowen Stars
1.46
Caerphilly Athletic
1.46
Pontyclun
1.46
Cwm Welfare AFC
1.46
Garden Village
1.46
Canton Liberal
1.46
Rhayader Town
1.46
Pill AFC
1.33
Trearddur Bay
1.33
Afan Lido
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.20
Ammanford AFC
1.00
Baglan Dragons
1.00
Queens Park
1.00
Morriston Town
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
Cwmbran Town
1.00
Llanefydd
1.00
NFA
1.00
Caldicot Town
1.00
Brickfield Rangers
1.00
Ruthin Town
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Cardiff MET
1.00
Holyhead Hotspur
1.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Caernarfon Town
0.00
St Asaph City
0.00
Taffs Well
0.00
Goytre United
0.00
Cefn Albion
0.00
Llanberis
0.00
Llwydcoed
0.00
Penybont
0.00
Guilsfield
0.00
Aberystwyth Town
0.00
Pontypridd Town
0.00
Newport City
0.00
Newtown AFC
0.00
Llantwit Major is 0.50 goals better than Baglan Dragons in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Caernarfon Town
0.00
Goytre United
0.00
Newtown AFC
0.00
Holyhead Hotspur
0.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.00
llanelli AFC
0.40
Ammanford AFC
0.50
Cardiff Draconians
0.50
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Morriston Town
0.67
Trearddur Bay
0.67
Taffs Well
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
Llanefydd
1.00
Llwydcoed
1.00
Penybont
1.00
Denbigh Town
1.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.00
Briton Ferry
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Aberystwyth Town
1.00
Llantwit Major
1.00
Mold Alexandra
1.00
Swansea University
1.33
Bala Town
1.33
Afan Lido
1.33
Caerau (Ely)
1.50
Porthmadog
1.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Ruthin Town
1.50
Flint Town United
1.50
Airbus UK
1.50
Cardiff MET
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.60
Trefelin
1.67
Penydarren BGC
1.67
Caersws
1.75
Llandudno
2.00
St Asaph City
2.00
Pill AFC
2.00
NFA
2.00
Caldicot Town
2.00
Buckley Town
2.00
Pontypridd Town
2.00
Newport City
2.00
Penrhyncoch
2.00
Carmarthen Town
2.00
Evans & Williams
2.17
Cefn Cribwr
2.17
Saltney Town
2.17
Afan United
2.17
Nefyn United
2.17
Tredegar Town
2.17
Lliswerry
2.17
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
2.17
CPD Sychdyn United
2.17
Berriew
2.17
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
2.17
Llanfair United
2.17
Glynneath Town
2.17
Dinas Powys
2.17
Llanrug United
2.17
Blaenavon Blues
2.17
Port Talbot Town
2.17
Pentwynmawr Athletic
2.17
Pwllheli
2.17
Abercarn United
2.17
Rhostyllen
2.17
Forden United
2.17
Broughton United FC
2.17
Dolgellau Athletic
2.17
Hawarden Rangers
2.17
Penygraig United FC
2.17
Bow Street
2.17
Welshpool Town
2.17
Tata Steel
2.17
Cwmbach Royal Stars
2.17
Ynyshir Albions
2.17
Treowen Stars
2.17
Caerphilly Athletic
2.17
Pontyclun
2.17
Cwm Welfare AFC
2.17
Garden Village
2.17
Canton Liberal
2.17
Rhayader Town
2.17
Colwyn Bay
2.33
Kinmel Bay
2.50
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
2.50
Gresford Athletic
2.50
Barry Town
3.00
Cwmbran Town
3.00
Brickfield Rangers
3.00
Llanberis
4.00
Cwmbran Celtic
4.00
Rhyl
4.00
Baglan Dragons
5.00
Cefn Albion
5.00
Guilsfield
5.00
Queens Park
6.00
Llantwit Major is 4.00 goals better than Baglan Dragons in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 5.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Llantwit Major or Draw✓ Hit
83.2%
Avg Implied -
54%
29%
17%
covers Llantwit Major + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Llantwit Major or Baglan Dragons✓ Hit
71.2%
Avg Implied -
54%
29%
17%
covers Llantwit Major + Baglan Dragons
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Baglan Dragons✗ Miss
45.6%
Avg Implied -
54%
29%
17%
covers Draw + Baglan Dragons
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Llantwit Major over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.2%
Under
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llantwit Major over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
43.5%
Under
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llantwit Major over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llantwit Major over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
51.0%
Under
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Llantwit Major, so a minus line means Llantwit Major give that many goals of a start and Baglan Dragons receive them. At -1, Llantwit Major must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Llantwit Major win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Llantwit Major)Actual: Draw
Llantwit Major -2
11.6%
Draw -2
17.1%
Baglan Dragons +2
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Llantwit Major)Actual: Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major -1
28.7%
Draw -1
25.7%
Baglan Dragons +1
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Llantwit Major)Actual: Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major +1
83.2%
Draw +1
11.8%
Baglan Dragons -1
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Llantwit Major)Actual: Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major +2
95.0%
Draw +2
4.0%
Baglan Dragons -2
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L11D01L00D10W21W00D00DA·NEW28/03H·CAE05/04A·CWM12/04H·ABE26/07A·AMM08/08H·CAR16/08A·CAM22/08A·TRE25/08H·TRE06/09A·CAE12/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.530.400.470.400.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.290.480.270.360.300.60
vs Weaker (9)0.670.670.750.750.600.60
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Baglan Dragons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D20W11D21W01L00D10W00D00DH·CAR05/04A·AMM12/04H·PON27/07A·ABE09/08H·NEW17/08A·CAE22/08A·CAR25/08H·TRE06/09H·CAR13/09A·CAE17/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.401.070.400.400.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.620.330.800.200.450.45
vs Weaker (9)1.000.561.600.800.250.25
Clean sheet %63% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Llantwit Major) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Llantwit Major over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llantwit Major over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llantwit Major over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D00D01L11D00D02L12L21W00DA·NEW28/03H·CAE05/04A·CWM12/04H·ABE26/07A·AMM08/08H·CAR16/08A·CAM22/08A·TRE25/08H·TRE06/09A·CAE12/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.600.730.470.530.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.710.430.910.450.500.40
vs Weaker (9)0.441.000.250.500.601.40
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Baglan Dragons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D10W01L12L00D00D01L00D12LH·CAR05/04A·AMM12/04H·PON27/07A·ABE09/08H·NEW17/08A·CAE22/08A·CAR25/08H·TRE06/09H·CAR13/09A·CAE17/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.570.870.670.530.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.810.431.000.500.640.36
vs Weaker (9)0.440.890.601.000.250.75
Clean sheet %57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Llantwit Major) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Llantwit Major over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llantwit Major over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llantwit Major over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baglan Dragons over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.599.8%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals99.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.599.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.597.5%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals96.4%-------✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap95.0%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals93.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.592.8%-------✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals83.9%-------✓ Hit
Home or Draw83.2%-------✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap83.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.582.1%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals81.4%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals77.2%-------✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap71.3%-------✗ Miss
Home or Away71.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
NC (4)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AT (2)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
NC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
LM wins
2
Draws
2
BD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Llantwit Major vs Baglan Dragons · H/A from LM
DateH/AGameScore
08/03/25HLM Vs Baglan Dragons0-1
30/11/24ABaglan Dragons Vs LM0-0
29/03/24ABaglan Dragons Vs LM0-0
12/08/23HLM Vs Baglan Dragons1-4

Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/09/25ACaerau (Ely) Vs LM0-0
06/09/25HLM Vs Trethomas Bluebirds2-1
25/08/25ATrefelin Vs LM3-3
22/08/25ACambrian & Clydach Vs LM2-1
16/08/25HLM Vs Carmarthen Town0-0
08/08/25AAmmanford AFC Vs LM2-1
26/07/25HLM Vs Aberystwyth Town1-2
12/04/25ACwmbran Celtic Vs LM1-0
05/04/25HLM Vs Caerau (Ely)1-0
28/03/25ANewport City Vs LM2-1

Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/25ACaerau (Ely) Vs BD2-1
13/09/25HBD Vs Cardiff Draconians0-0
06/09/25HBD Vs Trefelin1-1
25/08/25ACarmarthen Town Vs BD0-0
22/08/25ACaerau (Ely) Vs BD1-0
17/08/25HBD Vs Newport City3-3
09/08/25AAberystwyth Town Vs BD2-1
27/07/25HBD Vs Pontypridd Town3-0
12/04/25AAmmanford AFC Vs BD1-1
05/04/25HBD Vs Carmarthen Town1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Llantwit Major
Llantwit Major
Wales: Welsh Cup
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWD1.40
HomeLWLDW1.65
AwayLLLDD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%42%25%
AVG goals2.482.422.54
Over 1.5 %68%65%71%
Over 2.5 %48%42%54%
Over 3.5 %28%31%25%
Scored1.341.461.21
Conceded1.140.961.33
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet28%31%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Baglan Dragons
Baglan Dragons
Wales: Welsh Cup
Recent: 1 Wins / 6 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDDL1.32
HomeDWDDD1.44
AwayDLLDL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%33%30%
AVG goals2.583.002.09
Over 1.5 %74%85%61%
Over 2.5 %48%59%35%
Over 3.5 %24%33%13%
Scored1.381.701.00
Conceded1.201.301.09
BTTS56%70%39%
Clean Sheet32%26%39%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LlandudnoLlandudno3080
87%
2.7
7722+55
3.3
83%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.60.7
-
2TrefelinTrefelin3078
83%
2.6
8317+66
3.3
93%
60%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.6
-
3Cambrian & ClydachCambrian & Clydach3076
80%
2.5
7520+55
3.2
87%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.50.7
-
4Airbus UKAirbus UK3075
80%
2.5
9322+71
3.8
93%
83%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.10.7
-
5HolywellHolywell3060
60%
2.0
7840+38
3.9
87%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.3
-
6Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)3160
58%
1.9
6734+33
3.3
81%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.1
-
7Ammanford AFCAmmanford AFC3060
57%
2.0
4926+23
2.5
70%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.9
-
8Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3048
50%
1.6
5149+2
3.3
87%
67%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
9RhylRhyl3046
47%
1.5
4655-9
3.4
80%
73%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
10Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town3045
37%
1.5
4538+7
2.8
67%
37%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
11Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3044
43%
1.5
3538-3
2.4
63%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
12GuilsfieldGuilsfield3043
43%
1.4
5048+2
3.3
77%
70%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
13Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra3041
40%
1.4
3845-7
2.8
77%
60%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
14Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians3040
40%
1.3
5048+2
3.3
77%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
15Denbigh TownDenbigh Town3040
40%
1.3
5259-7
3.7
87%
77%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
16Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major3037
30%
1.2
4447-3
3.0
83%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
17CaerswsCaersws3037
37%
1.2
4651-5
3.2
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
18Brickfield RangersBrickfield Rangers3037
37%
1.2
3949-10
2.9
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
19Treowen StarsTreowen Stars3037
33%
1.2
5163-12
3.8
90%
70%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
20Newport CityNewport City3037
30%
1.2
3648-12
2.8
70%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
21Holyhead HotspurHolyhead Hotspur3036
33%
1.2
4449-5
3.1
73%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
22PenrhyncochPenrhyncoch3035
33%
1.2
4553-8
3.3
80%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
23Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3034
30%
1.1
4651-5
3.2
80%
60%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
24Afan LidoAfan Lido3030
30%
1.0
3257-25
3.0
67%
53%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
25Buckley TownBuckley Town3030
30%
1.0
5077-27
4.2
90%
80%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.6
-
26Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds3029
20%
1.0
4562-17
3.6
90%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
27Flint MountainFlint Mountain3029
30%
1.0
3961-22
3.3
83%
73%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
28Gresford AthleticGresford Athletic3028
27%
0.9
4787-40
4.5
90%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.9
-
29Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons3125
16%
0.8
2653-27
2.5
68%
48%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.7
-
30Ruthin TownRuthin Town3023
20%
0.8
3664-28
3.3
77%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
31Ynyshir AlbionsYnyshir Albions3023
17%
0.8
2756-29
2.8
80%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
32Cwmbran CelticCwmbran Celtic3010
3%
0.3
2578-53
3.4
83%
70%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.6
-
Wales: FAW Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →

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