Llantwit Major hosts Baglan Dragons in the Wales: FAW Championship. The home side has struggled recently, having lost three straight matches, including a 0-5 defeat to Afan Lido. However, they have been relatively competitive at home, scoring 1.18 goals and conceding 1.36 goals per match against similar opponents.
Baglan Dragons have been decent on the road, scoring 0.6 goals and conceding 1.5 goals per match against similar opponents. They come into this match off a draw against Trethomas Bluebirds.
The model predicts a low-scoring match, with a 28% chance of two goals being scored. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% probability. The expected total goals are 2.2, and the model suggests an Under 3.5 goal total, which is selected with 81.2% probability. The model's selection, the home win, has a 40% probability, while the draw has a 31% probability and the away win has a 29% probability. The home win percentage is 40%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 29%. The model's selection, the home win, is the favoured match result.
In a stunning upset, Baglan Dragons secured a 0-1 away win against Llantwit Major, extending their recent form's narrative of coming off a win. The win marks a reversal of their previous fortunes, having suffered four consecutive defeats. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, as it had predicted a home victory with a 40% probability. The model's call was wrong. Meanwhile, the model's suggested pick, Under 3.5, hit, with an 81.2% probability.
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.67 | 1.38 | 1.50 | 1.57 | 1.86 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.27 | 1.45 | 1.73 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.50 | 2.12 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 1.73 | 0.79 | 2.07 | 0.50 | 1.44 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.73 | 1.77 | 1.00 | 2.30 | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.38 | 1.62 | 0.25 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Baglan Dragons goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 12% | 9.5% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 12% | 15% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.0% | 8.1% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.70 | 0.56 | 0.75 | 0.79 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.64 | 0.50 | 0.73 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.20 | 1.40 | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 0.79 | 0.31 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.55 | 0.64 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.25 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.97 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.79 | 1.21 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.82 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.91 | 1.18 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.75 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Baglan Dragons| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.17 | 1.07 | 0.14 | 1.29 | 0.19 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.18 | 1.14 | 0.20 | 1.40 | 0.17 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.12 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 81.2% | 1.32 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | +12.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/10/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 20/09/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 08/03/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 30/11/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 29/03/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 12/08/23 | H | 1-4 |
Llantwit Major| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 10/03/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 03/03/26 | H | 3-2 |
Baglan Dragons| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 31/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-7 | |
| 24/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |