Llantwit Major are favoured to win, with a 45% chance of triumph, a 28% draw probability, and a 27% chance for llanelli AFC. The model expects 2.7 goals in total, most likely 2 goals overall, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. Home side Llantwit Major have scored 1.27 and conceded 1.27 against similar opposition, while away side llanelli AFC have managed only 0.5 goals scored and 2.79 conceded on the road. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.0%), Under 5.5 (94.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.8%), Home +2 handicap (88.6%), and Under 4.5 (86.0%). After five consecutive defeats, Llantwit Major’s recent form is bleak, while llanelli AFC return from a loss, both having struggled against Aberystwyth Town with 1-5 and 0-4 results respectively. The match is likely to be low-scoring and favour the home side.
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.73 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.43 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.36 | 1.50 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.45 | 1.73 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.25 | 2.38 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 2.63 | 0.73 | 2.40 | 0.60 | 2.87 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.25 | 2.75 | 1.00 | 2.33 | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.56 | 2.56 | 0.64 | 2.27 | 0.50 | 2.79 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 4.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
| llanelli AFC goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 13% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 8.0% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.77 | 0.56 | 0.81 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.64 | 0.55 | 0.73 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.50 | 1.38 | 0.20 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 1.17 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.36 | 1.08 | 0.36 | 0.91 | 0.36 | 1.21 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.97 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.79 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.73 | 0.95 | 0.55 | 0.73 | 0.91 | 1.18 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.20 | 1.47 | 0.20 | 1.40 | 0.20 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.20 | 1.48 | 0.27 | 1.36 | 0.14 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 97.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 97.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 94.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 92.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 88.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 88.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 86.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 79.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 78.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 76.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 76.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 72.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +1 handicap | 72.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 71.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 10/08/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 08/03/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 28/08/23 | H | 2-5 | |
| 17/02/23 | A | 1-2 | |
| 19/11/22 | H | 0-1 |
Llantwit Major| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 10/03/26 | A | 1-3 |
llanelli AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |