The contest between Llapi and Dukagjini is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 40% for Llapi, 31% for a draw, and 28% for Dukagjini. The match is expected to see about 2.3 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 28% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 14.5% probability. Llapi, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.15 goals scored and 0.85 conceded. Dukagjini, on the road against a comparable side, averages 1.21 scored and 0.86 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 5.5 (97.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 4.5 (92.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.9%), and Home +2 handicap (89.0%). Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and the home win remains the most likely outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Llapi win
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini win
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Llapi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.50
1.07
0.93
1.31
2.00
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.20
0.00
2.00
1.25
2.25
vs Similar (25)
1.24
1.36
1.15
0.85
1.33
1.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dukagjini
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.90
0.93
0.79
1.19
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.25
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.08
0.92
0.90
1.00
1.21
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Llapi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.2%
Under 1.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.2%
Under 2.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.1%
Under 3.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.5%
No
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.8%
1-0
11.8%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
8.2%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.3%
Llapi goals ↓
Dukagjini goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.2%
5.3%
1.8%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.6%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.2%
8.2%
4.1%
1.4%
0.3%
3
3.4%
3.4%
1.7%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Llapi goals (down), columns = Dukagjini goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Drita
1.83
Malisheva
1.64
Ballkani
1.61
Drenica Skënderaj
1.43
Dukagjini
1.42
Gjilani
1.42
Llapi
1.41
Prishtina
1.36
Feronikeli
1.04
Vushtrria
0.45
Llapi is 0.01 points worse than Dukagjini in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ballkani
1.69
Malisheva
1.61
Prishtina
1.44
Drita
1.39
Drenica Skënderaj
1.31
Gjilani
1.31
Llapi
1.30
Dukagjini
1.17
Feronikeli
0.97
Vushtrria
0.42
Llapi is 0.13 goals better than Dukagjini in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Drita
0.97
Dukagjini
1.00
Ballkani
1.14
Gjilani
1.33
Llapi
1.35
Malisheva
1.39
Prishtina
1.42
Drenica Skënderaj
1.49
Feronikeli
1.68
Vushtrria
3.89
Llapi is 0.35 goals worse than Dukagjini in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Llapi or Draw
71.6%
Avg Implied -
40%
31%
28%
covers Llapi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Llapi or Dukagjini
68.9%
Avg Implied -
40%
31%
28%
covers Llapi + Dukagjini
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dukagjini
59.5%
Avg Implied -
40%
31%
28%
covers Draw + Dukagjini
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Llapi over/under 0.5
Over
71.3%
Under
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 1.5
Over
35.5%
Under
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 2.5
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 0.5
Over
63.4%
Under
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 1.5
Over
26.6%
Under
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 2.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Llapi, so a minus line means Llapi give that many goals of a start and Dukagjini receive them. At -1, Llapi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Llapi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Llapi)
Llapi -2
6.4%
Draw -2
12.2%
Dukagjini +2
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Llapi)
Llapi -1
18.6%
Draw -1
21.9%
Dukagjini +1
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Llapi)
Llapi +1
71.6%
Draw +1
17.4%
Dukagjini -1
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Llapi)
Llapi +2
89.0%
Draw +2
7.9%
Dukagjini -2
3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Llapi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.64
0.36
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.52
0.69
0.38
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dukagjini
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.40
0.50
0.21
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.17
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.46
0.50
0.30
0.50
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Llapi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.5%
Under 0.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
29.4%
Under 1.5
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.1%
Under 2.5
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Llapi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.7%
Under
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.5%
Under
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Llapi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.93
0.43
0.57
0.44
1.25
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.40
0.00
2.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.84
0.46
0.46
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dukagjini) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dukagjini
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.43
0.57
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.25
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.46
0.40
0.70
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Llapi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.2%
Under 0.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.6%
Under 1.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.4%
Under 2.5
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Llapi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.7%
Under
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llapi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dukagjini over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (24)
€8m
BAL (26)
€7m
PRI (24)
€6m
MAL (19)
€5m
LLA (28)
€5m
GJI (16)
€4m
DUK (20)
€3m
FER (14)
€3m
DS (8)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
Llapi's squad is €2m more valuable than Dukagjini's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PRI (10)
€4m
DRI (8)
€3m
BAL (7)
€3m
LLA (9)
€2m
GJI (6)
€2m
MAL (6)
€2m
DUK (7)
€2m
FER (7)
€1m
DS (5)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Llapi and Dukagjini have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (8)
€2m
DRI (5)
€2m
MAL (4)
€1m
LLA (7)
€1m
GJI (3)
€1m
PRI (3)
€1m
DUK (5)
€1m
FER (2)
€0m
DS (1)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Llapi and Dukagjini have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (11)
€3m
PRI (11)
€2m
BAL (11)
€2m
MAL (9)
€2m
LLA (12)
€2m
GJI (7)
€2m
DUK (8)
€1m
FER (5)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
DS (2)
€0m
Llapi's defence is €1m more valuable than Dukagjini's (€2m vs €1m).
Kosovo: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Superliga stats & trends →
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Malisheva
Gjilani
Prishtina
Drita
Ballkani
Drenica Skënderaj
Feronikeli
Vushtrria