In this match between Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and Fratria, the model predicts an away win for Fratria, which is the most likely result given the probabilities of 26% for a home win, 29% for a draw, and 45% for an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely total number of goals being 2.
One of the most likely scorelines is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 13.9%. Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa has a poor home record, scoring 0.6 goals on average at home and conceding 1.6 goals, while facing stronger opponents. Fratria, on the other hand, has a good away record, scoring 1.71 goals on average against weaker opponents and conceding 0.57 goals.
The model's selections include Under 3.5, with a probability of 76.7% and an edge of 1%, and Over 1.5, with a probability of 71.6% and an edge of 4%. The home win percentage is 26%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 45%.
Results analysis
The win extends Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa's recent struggles, with their home form having taken a hit after two consecutive defeats. Meanwhile, Fratria's away form has been on the rise, with a two-game winning streak. The final score was 0-2 in favour of Fratria, which is the actual result. The model correctly picked the away win, with Fratria being the pre-match favourite at 45% probability. The model's selection came in, as it was the favourite. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 71.6%. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals also hit, with a probability of 76.7%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied 23.2% · @ 3.88
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.49
Marathonbet
4.40
BetVictor
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied 28.1% · @ 3.20
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Bet365
3.30
Betano
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Fratria win✓ Hit
44.7%
Avg Implied 48.6% · @ 1.85
Edge
-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.13
Superbet
2.12
Betfair
1.91
Unibet
1.85
Betano
1.82
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.70
1.00
1.20
1.07
2.20
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
2.33
0.25
1.50
0.60
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.29
1.43
1.27
1.09
1.30
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fratria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.90
2.12
0.94
1.29
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.65
0.96
2.08
1.00
1.18
0.91
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
0.71
2.25
0.75
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.6%
@ 1.33+3.5%
Under 1.5
28.4%
@ 2.84-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.36
Unibet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Under
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.88
1xBet
2.88
Pinnacle
2.76
Unibet
2.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.5%
@ 2.11+1.1%
Under 2.5
55.5%
@ 1.62-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
Superbet
2.15
Bet365
2.15
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Under
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.60
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.3%
@ 3.81-0.5%
Under 3.5
76.7%
@ 1.19+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.82
Marathonbet
3.82
Superbet
3.70
Unibet
3.70
Under
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.1%
@ 1.91+2.2%
No
49.9%
@ 1.76-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Superbet
1.90
Unibet
1.88
No
Betfair
1.85
Superbet
1.80
BetVictor
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Unibet
1.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 5.80+7.5%
0-1
11.0%@ 5.58+4.3%
0-0
9.8%@ 7.83+5.1%
1-2
9.0%@ 7.68+4.2%
0-2 ✓
8.7%@ 7.53+3.8%
1-0
7.6%@ 8.72+3.4%
2-1
6.5%@ 12.06+3.5%
2-2
4.6%@ 14.29+2.1%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa goals ↓
Fratria goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
11%
8.7%
4.1%
1.5%
1
7.6%
14%
9.0%
4.3%
1.5%
2
4.6%
6.5%
4.6%
2.2%
0.8%
3
1.6%
2.2%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa goals (down), columns = Fratria goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa is 0.57 points worse than Fratria in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa is 0.29 goals worse than Fratria in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa is 0.71 goals worse than Fratria in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 0.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.97
0.53
0.53
0.60
1.40
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.33
0.25
0.50
0.20
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.81
0.64
0.55
0.80
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fratria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.52
0.92
0.50
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.43
1.25
0.50
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.47
0.67
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.62
0.64
0.55
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fratria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.40
1.12
0.44
0.50
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.43
1.17
0.50
0.55
0.36
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.29
1.00
0.25
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
76.7%
1.19
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.6%
1.33
Superbet
1.36
Unibet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
+3.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa's squad is €2m less valuable than Fratria's (€1m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and Fratria have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and Fratria have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and Fratria have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Yantra 2019
Montana
Beroe
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Nesebar
Marek
Rilski Sportist
Hebar 1918
Ludogorets II
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad