Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding just 1.2 goals per game against similar opposition, while they average 1.6 goals scored. Marek, on the road, struggles to find the net, managing only 0.59 goals per game, and concedes 1.24 against comparable teams. The model projects a tight 1.8-goal affair, with the most probable total of two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 17.4% probability. The predicted outcome favors a home win, with a 38% chance, a draw at 35%, and an away win at 27%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Under 5.5 (98.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 4.5 (96.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.0%), and Home under 2.5 goals (91.8%). Lokomotiv’s recent two-game winning streak and a 2-1 victory over Etar Veliko Tarnovo contrast with Marek’s draw-streaked start, reinforcing the home advantage forecast.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marek win
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.80
1.20
1.33
0.93
2.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
2.17
0.50
1.33
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.44
1.56
1.67
1.33
1.22
1.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marek
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.03
1.58
0.67
0.56
1.28
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
1.03
1.58
0.67
0.56
1.28
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.7%
Under 1.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.5%
Under 2.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
11.2%
Under 3.5
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
36.3%
No
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.5%
1-0
15.6%
1-1
14.4%
0-1
11.2%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
6.9%
1-2
5.1%
0-2
4.9%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa goals ↓
Marek goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
11%
4.9%
1.3%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
5.1%
1.3%
0.3%
2
8.9%
6.9%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
3
3.1%
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.8%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa goals (down), columns = Marek goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and Marek are level in average points per game (both 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and Marek are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa is 0.43 goals worse than Marek in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Draw
74.8%
Avg Implied -
40%
35%
25%
covers Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Marek
65.2%
Avg Implied -
40%
35%
25%
covers Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa + Marek
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Marek
60.0%
Avg Implied -
40%
35%
25%
covers Draw + Marek
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5
Over
64.9%
Under
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5
Over
28.2%
Under
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 0.5
Over
53.9%
Under
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5
Over
18.2%
Under
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, so a minus line means Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa give that many goals of a start and Marek receive them. At -1, Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa)
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa -2
5.0%
Draw -2
11.5%
Marek +2
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa)
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa -1
16.5%
Draw -1
23.5%
Marek +1
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa)
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa +1
74.8%
Draw +1
17.0%
Marek -1
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa)
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa +2
91.8%
Draw +2
6.3%
Marek -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.00
0.67
0.60
0.53
1.40
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.25
0.33
0.67
0.17
1.83
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.83
0.89
0.56
0.78
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marek
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.83
0.42
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.53
0.57
0.83
0.42
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.53
0.73
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.92
0.17
0.67
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.72
0.78
0.78
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marek
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.75
0.25
0.22
0.61
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.43
0.47
0.75
0.25
0.22
0.61
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and Marek have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and Marek have a similar attack value (both €0m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and Marek have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and Marek have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →