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Lokomotiv Gomel vs Baranovichi Result & Analysis

Date: 11/08/2024
Time: 12:30
Final 3-3
Lokomotiv Gomel
Lokomotiv Gomel
Vs
56%
26%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Baranovichi
Baranovichi
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lokomotiv Gomel win✗ Miss
55.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi win✗ Miss
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D12L11D01L32W00D02L31W02L03LH·DIN24/05A·LID02/06H·ORS09/06A·SLO14/06H·ABF22/06A·BUM29/06H·BEL06/07A·TOR19/07A·NIV01/08A·ML 05/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.431.271.470.731.40
vs Stronger (3)0.003.330.003.000.003.50
vs Similar (11)1.091.641.501.670.601.60
vs Weaker (16)1.120.941.251.121.000.75
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BaranovichiBaranovichi

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L21W02L13L21W00D03L01L01L01LA·BEL02/06H·TOR09/06A·VOL16/06H·NIV23/06A·ML 30/06A·FC 06/07H·MOL21/07A·OST27/07H·SHA31/07H·BAT05/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.701.071.730.531.67
vs Stronger (2)2.002.002.003.002.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.711.751.081.770.271.73
vs Weaker (4)0.751.250.000.001.001.67
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.3%
Under 2.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.7%
Under 3.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-0
11.9%
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.8%
3-0
6.2%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
5.4%
Lokomotiv Gomel goals ↓
Baranovichi goals →
01234
08.8%5.5%2.9%0.8%0.2%
112%12%4.9%1.4%0.3%
211%9.6%4.2%1.2%0.3%
36.2%5.4%2.4%0.7%0.1%
42.7%2.3%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lokomotiv Gomel goals (down), columns = Baranovichi goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.24
Belshina
2.18
ML Vitebsk
2.15
Niva
2.06
Volna
1.94
Dinamo Minsk II
1.53
Lida
1.53
BATE II
1.44
Bumprom
1.41
Orsha
1.32
Ostrovets FC
1.26
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.03
Baranovichi
1.00
ABFF U17
0.97
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.91
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.85
Slonim
0.76
Torpedo BelAZ II
0.62
Lokomotiv Gomel is 0.03 points better than Baranovichi in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Belshina
2.47
ML Vitebsk
2.21
Niva
2.15
Volna
2.06
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.82
Dinamo Minsk II
1.59
Bumprom
1.47
Lida
1.41
Orsha
1.35
BATE II
1.35
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.24
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.06
Torpedo BelAZ II
1.00
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.97
ABFF U17
0.91
Baranovichi
0.88
Slonim
0.76
Lokomotiv Gomel is 0.35 goals better than Baranovichi in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 0.88).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.76
ML Vitebsk
0.79
Niva
1.00
Bumprom
1.09
Dinamo Minsk II
1.15
Lida
1.18
Belshina
1.24
Volna
1.26
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.47
Orsha
1.50
ABFF U17
1.53
BATE II
1.59
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.62
Ostrovets FC
1.68
Baranovichi
1.76
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.79
Slonim
1.91
Torpedo BelAZ II
2.68
Lokomotiv Gomel is 0.29 goals better than Baranovichi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.76).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D01L11D00D11D00D01L10W00D01LH·DIN24/05A·LID02/06H·ORS09/06A·SLO14/06H·ABF22/06A·BUM29/06H·BEL06/07A·TOR19/07A·NIV01/08A·ML 05/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.700.471.000.400.40
vs Stronger (3)0.001.670.002.000.001.50
vs Similar (11)0.360.910.331.500.400.20
vs Weaker (16)0.560.380.620.500.500.25
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BaranovichiBaranovichi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L00D00D03L21W00D02L00D00D00DA·BEL02/06H·TOR09/06A·VOL16/06H·NIV23/06A·ML 30/06A·FC 06/07H·MOL21/07A·OST27/07H·SHA31/07H·BAT05/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.830.271.070.400.60
vs Stronger (2)1.002.000.003.002.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.250.830.311.000.180.64
vs Weaker (4)0.500.250.000.000.670.33
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lokomotiv Gomel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Gomel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Gomel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D00D01L21W00D01L21W02L02LH·DIN24/05A·LID02/06H·ORS09/06A·SLO14/06H·ABF22/06A·BUM29/06H·BEL06/07A·TOR19/07A·NIV01/08A·ML 05/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.730.800.470.331.00
vs Stronger (3)0.001.670.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (11)0.730.731.170.170.201.40
vs Weaker (16)0.560.560.620.620.500.50
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Baranovichi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BaranovichiBaranovichi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L21W02L10W00D00D01L01L01L01LA·BEL02/06H·TOR09/06A·VOL16/06H·NIV23/06A·ML 30/06A·FC 06/07H·MOL21/07A·OST27/07H·SHA31/07H·BAT05/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.870.800.670.131.07
vs Stronger (2)1.000.002.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (24)0.460.920.770.770.091.09
vs Weaker (4)0.251.000.000.000.331.33
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lokomotiv Gomel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Gomel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Gomel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baranovichi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.3%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.573.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
BAR (21)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
BAR (8)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
BAR (9)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
LG wins
1
Draws
1
BAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Gomel vs Baranovichi · H/A from LG
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/24ABaranovichi Vs LG2-1
05/11/23ABaranovichi Vs LG1-1
01/07/23HLG Vs Baranovichi3-1
16/10/22ABaranovichi Vs LG0-5
12/06/22HLG Vs Baranovichi5-0

Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/24AML Vitebsk Vs LG3-0
01/08/24ANiva Vs LG2-0
19/07/24ATorpedo BelAZ II Vs LG1-3
06/07/24HLG Vs Belshina0-2
29/06/24ABumprom Vs LG0-0
22/06/24HLG Vs ABFF U173-2
14/06/24ASlonim Vs LG1-0
09/06/24HLG Vs Orsha1-1
02/06/24ALida Vs LG2-1
24/05/24HLG Vs Dinamo Minsk II1-1

BaranovichiBaranovichi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/08/24HBAR Vs BATE II0-1
31/07/24HBAR Vs Shakhtyor Petrikov0-1
27/07/24AOstrovets FC Vs BAR1-0
21/07/24HBAR Vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 40-3
06/07/24AFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk Vs BAR0-0
30/06/24AML Vitebsk Vs BAR1-2
23/06/24HBAR Vs Niva1-3
16/06/24AVolna Vs BAR2-0
09/06/24HBAR Vs Torpedo BelAZ II2-1
02/06/24ABelshina Vs BAR5-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Lokomotiv Gomel
Lokomotiv Gomel
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL1.62
HomeDDDWL1.83
AwayLDWLL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%54%38%
AVG goals2.803.082.54
Over 1.5 %88%92%85%
Over 2.5 %50%58%42%
Over 3.5 %26%33%19%
Scored1.501.831.19
Conceded1.301.251.35
BTTS52%58%46%
Clean Sheet30%29%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Baranovichi
Baranovichi
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL1.26
HomeWLLLL1.52
AwayLLWDL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%44%28%
AVG goals2.702.882.52
Over 1.5 %76%88%64%
Over 2.5 %52%56%48%
Over 3.5 %30%32%28%
Scored1.121.360.88
Conceded1.581.521.64
BTTS44%56%32%
Clean Sheet22%16%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 43476
68%
2.2
6226+36
2.6
71%
44%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.80.8
-
2BelshinaBelshina3474
68%
2.2
8442+42
3.7
88%
68%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.51.2
-
3ML VitebskML Vitebsk3473
68%
2.1
7527+48
3.0
71%
59%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6352.20.8
-
4NivaNiva3470
62%
2.1
7334+39
3.1
71%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.11.0
-
5VolnaVolna3466
62%
1.9
7043+27
3.3
94%
74%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.11.3
-
6Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II3452
44%
1.5
5439+15
2.7
76%
59%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0111.61.1
-
7LidaLida3452
44%
1.5
4840+8
2.6
68%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.2
-
8BATE IIBATE II3449
41%
1.4
4654-8
2.9
76%
56%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.6
-
9BumpromBumprom3448
38%
1.4
5037+13
2.6
62%
56%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.1
-
10OrshaOrsha3445
32%
1.3
4651-5
2.9
82%
38%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
11Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3443
35%
1.3
4457-13
3.0
76%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.7
-
12Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3435
24%
1.0
4250-8
2.7
88%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
13BaranovichiBaranovichi3434
26%
1.0
3060-30
2.6
74%
56%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.8
-
14ABFF U17ABFF U173433
26%
1.0
3152-21
2.4
74%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
15Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov3431
26%
0.9
3361-28
2.8
68%
53%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
16FC Energetik-Bgu MinskFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk3429
21%
0.9
3655-19
2.7
65%
41%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.6
-
17SlonimSlonim3426
18%
0.8
2665-39
2.7
65%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.9
-
18Torpedo BelAZ IITorpedo BelAZ II3421
18%
0.6
3491-57
3.7
85%
65%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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