Lokomotiv Kyiv vs Yarud Mariupol' Result & Analysis

Lokomotiv Kyiv’s defensive record at home is modest, conceding an average of one goal per game against stronger opposition, while their scoring output sits at 0.5. Yarud Mariupol’ have been more prolific on the road, having just won 3-1 away, and their recent form shows a streak of wins. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 50% chance, a 30% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of a Lokomotiv victory. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 for Yarud, with a 14.4% chance.

Suggested selections from the model include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Under 5.5 (97.6%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.5%) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4%).

The win for Yarud Mariupol’ extends their two-game winning run, while Lokomotiv Kyiv come off a defeat. The model’s favourite, an away win with a 50% probability, proved correct as the final score was 1-3 in favour of Yarud Mariupol’. The predicted most likely score of 0-1 was not hit, but the overall outcome matched. Every suggested pick was evaluated: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.8%, Under 6.5 hit at 99.3%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.7%, Under 5.5 hit at 97.6%, and Away under 2.5 2H goals missed at 97.2%. The model’s selections largely came through, confirming its accuracy for this fixture.