The contest between Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Arda Kardzhali is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are almost even: 31 % for a home triumph, 31 % for a draw and 38 % for an away victory. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely total of two goals carries a 28 % probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.6 % chance.
Lokomotiv, playing at home, averages 0.82 goals scored and 1.18 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Arda, on the road, has 1.1 goals scored and 0.8 conceded in comparable opposition. Recent form shows Lokomotiv struggling after three straight defeats, whereas Arda is on a two-game winning run.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.1 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.7 % with a 2 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7 % with a 6 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.4 % with a 5 % edge), Under 5.5 (97.2 % with a 2 % edge) and Away under 3.5 goals (96.6 % with a 4 % edge).
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as Arda Kardzhali edged Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1, confirming the favoured away win with a 38 % probability. The result matched the final score and the actual outcome. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 7.5 goals (99.8 %) and Under 6.5 goals (99.1 %) were correct, as were Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7 %) and Home under 3.5 goals (97.7 %). Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7 %) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.4 %) also succeeded, along with Under 5.5 (97.2 %) and Away under 3.5 goals (96.6 %). Lokomotiv’s recent form, after four straight defeats, was halted by Arda’s three-game winning streak, underscoring the model’s precise assessment.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.35
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.51
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.40
Draw✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied 31.1% · @ 2.96
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.15
Unibet
3.05
Pinnacle
3.03
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Arda Kardzhali win✓ Hit
38.0%
Avg Implied 41.4% · @ 2.23
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Dafabet
2.27
William Hil
2.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.10
1.07
1.00
0.75
1.19
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
-
-
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (24)
1.04
1.08
1.07
1.00
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Arda Kardzhali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arda Kardzhali
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.87
1.36
0.64
1.25
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.80
0.50
1.50
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.42
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.33
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.3%
@ 1.50+4.8%
Under 1.5
32.7%
@ 2.49-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.56
Unibet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Marathonbet
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.3%
@ 2.51+2.4%
Under 2.5
60.7%
@ 1.47-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.64
10Bet
2.60
Bet365
2.60
Betfair
2.55
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
BetVictor
1.48
Bet365
1.48
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.2%
@ 4.85+0.0%
Under 3.5
80.8%
@ 1.15-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.25
Pinnacle
5.05
888Sport
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Betfair
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.9%
@ 2.09+2.7%
No
53.1%
@ 1.66-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.15
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
No
888Sport
1.70
William Hil
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%@ 5.51+6.7%
0-0
11.8%@ 6.30+4.9%
0-1 ✓
11.2%@ 5.38+3.2%
1-0
9.7%@ 7.14+3.6%
1-2
8.0%@ 8.72+3.0%
0-2
7.6%@ 8.71+2.6%
2-1
7.0%@ 11.30+3.1%
2-0
5.8%@ 14.56+2.8%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals ↓
Arda Kardzhali goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
7.6%
3.0%
0.9%
1
9.7%
15%
8.0%
3.2%
1.0%
2
5.8%
7.0%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.0%
2.5%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals (down), columns = Arda Kardzhali goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is 1.86 points worse than Arda Kardzhali in terms of average points per game (0.43 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is 1.14 goals worse than Arda Kardzhali in terms of goals scored per game (0.43 vs 1.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is 0.86 goals worse than Arda Kardzhali in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 0.57).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
For 3.3 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 9.8 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arda Kardzhali
For 4.1 · Against 3.7 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
8.2
7.8
2.3
2.2
2.3
24.3
24.2
24.4
vs Stronger (9)
9.0
11.0
8.3
2.1
1.7
2.3
22.0
19.0
23.0
vs Similar (40)
7.5
8.0
6.7
2.3
2.3
2.3
25.0
24.7
25.6
vs Weaker (1)
14.0
-
14.0
3.0
-
3.0
20.0
-
20.0
% over line
33%
38%
27%
36%
42%
31%
67%
62%
73%
% under line
67%
62%
73%
64%
58%
69%
33%
38%
27%
This opponent (Arda Kardzhali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arda Kardzhali
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.7
8.1
2.8
3.2
2.5
24.2
23.7
24.6
vs Stronger (10)
10.1
9.3
10.8
3.4
4.6
2.2
22.1
24.3
20.5
vs Similar (38)
8.1
8.5
7.6
2.7
3.0
2.5
24.2
23.5
25.1
vs Weaker (2)
2.0
-
2.0
2.0
0.0
4.0
37.0
-
37.0
% over line
36%
36%
36%
44%
44%
44%
71%
64%
79%
% under line
64%
64%
64%
56%
56%
56%
29%
36%
21%
This opponent (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.3
Botev Plovdiv
10.2
Spartak Varna
10.1
CSKA Sofia
9.7
Levski Sofia
9.6
Ludogorets
9.4
Botev Vratsa
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.3
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.3
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Septemvri Sofia
9.0
Arda Kardzhali
8.7
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
4.9
Cherno More Varna
4.9
Spartak Varna
4.9
Botev Vratsa
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Ludogorets
4.8
Slavia Sofia
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1
Dunav Ruse
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.1
Levski Sofia
24.7
Botev Vratsa
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.1
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.8
Septemvri Sofia
23.0
Spartak Varna
22.9
CSKA 1948
22.7
Ludogorets
22.4
CSKA Sofia
22.3
Botev Plovdiv
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
34.8%
@ 2.52-1.7%
Under 9.5
65.2%
@ 1.45+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.54
Pinnacle
2.53
Marathonbet
2.53
Superbet
2.52
Under
Unibet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
1xBet
1.43
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.9%
Under 3.5
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.2%
Under 21.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Draw✗ Miss
62.0%
Avg Implied 58.2% · @ 1.60
Edge
+3.8%
31%
31%
38%
covers Lokomotiv Plovdiv + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.64
888Sport
1.62
10Bet
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Arda Kardzhali✓ Hit
68.8%
Avg Implied 69.6% · @ 1.33
Edge
-0.9%
31%
31%
38%
covers Lokomotiv Plovdiv + Arda Kardzhali
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Draw or Arda Kardzhali✓ Hit
69.3%
Avg Implied 72.2% · @ 1.29
Edge
-2.9%
31%
31%
38%
covers Draw + Arda Kardzhali
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.35
888Sport
1.30
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
65.2%
@ 1.54+5.2%
Under
34.8%
@ 2.31-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Under
Pinnacle
2.39
BetVictor
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.32
Marathonbet
2.31
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.5%
@ 3.65+3.2%
Under
71.5%
@ 1.24-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
888Sport
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.1%
@ 10.39-0.1%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.04+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
12.00
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
11.20
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 23.25-1.9%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Arda Kardzhali over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.0%
@ 1.33+0.4%
Under
30.0%
@ 3.03-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Under
Betfair
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.11
Marathonbet
3.04
BetVictor
3.00
Arda Kardzhali over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.8%
@ 2.63-1.4%
Under
66.2%
@ 1.43+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.76
Bet365
2.75
BetVictor
2.70
Marathonbet
2.66
Superbet
2.65
Under
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Arda Kardzhali over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 6.31-2.6%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.09+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
BetVictor
6.50
1xBet
6.40
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
Arda Kardzhali over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 17.50-2.1%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
888Sport
21.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lokomotiv Plovdiv, so a minus line means Lokomotiv Plovdiv give that many goals of a start and Arda Kardzhali receive them. At -1, Lokomotiv Plovdiv must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lokomotiv Plovdiv win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Arda Kardzhali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arda Kardzhali
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.37
0.79
0.36
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.33
0.83
0.33
0.58
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
68.4%
@ 1.53+7.4%
Under 0.5
31.6%
@ 2.39-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
BetVictor
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
William Hil
2.45
Pinnacle
2.43
Unibet
2.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.5%
@ 3.47+2.9%
Under 1.5
70.5%
@ 1.26-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
1xBet
3.52
Marathonbet
3.52
Betfair
3.50
Under
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.0%
@ 9.68+1.3%
Under 2.5
89.0%
@ 1.04-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
BetVictor
10.50
William Hil
10.00
Marathonbet
9.60
Betfair
9.50
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
William Hil
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.2%
@ 2.71+4.9%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.41-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.83
1xBet
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Marathonbet
2.68
Betano
2.67
Under
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 9.75-0.7%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.04+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
9.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arda Kardzhali over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.9%
@ 2.17+5.4%
Under
52.1%
@ 1.60-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Arda Kardzhali over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.8%
@ 7.60+0.5%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.06-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.20
1xBet
8.00
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Arda Kardzhali over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 12.50-5.2%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.67
-
-
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.54
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Arda Kardzhali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arda Kardzhali
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.57
0.29
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.20
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.33
0.67
0.17
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.3%
@ 1.35+6.8%
Under 0.5
24.7%
@ 2.95-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Betano
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Under
Betano
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.95
1xBet
2.95
Superbet
2.92
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.4%
@ 2.65+5.6%
Under 1.5
59.6%
@ 1.42-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.69
1xBet
2.69
888Sport
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.40
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.9%
@ 6.50+1.6%
Under 2.5
84.1%
@ 1.08-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
1xBet
6.75
888Sport
6.50
William Hil
6.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.09
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
43.3%
@ 2.24+1.9%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.58-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
1xBet
2.24
Betano
2.22
Under
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 7.90+1.7%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.06-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.60
Marathonbet
8.60
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 12.50-4.8%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Arda Kardzhali over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.0%
@ 1.87+2.4%
Under
48.0%
@ 1.83-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.82
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Arda Kardzhali over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.2%
@ 5.53+0.4%
Under
82.8%
@ 1.12-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.85
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Arda Kardzhali over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 10.75-5.0%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.03+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.1%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
William Hil
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.9%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.6%
1.06
Unibet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.06
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.8%
1.11
Unibet
1.16
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
+3.4%
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.1%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.09
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.1%
1.15
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.8%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
-
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.8%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Betfair
1.17
10Bet
1.17
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
76.2%
1.25
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+3.0%
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.3%
1.35
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Betano
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.35
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
71.5%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.5%
1.26
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
-2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joël Zwarts38%
Dimitar Iliev20%
Juan Perea18%
Petar Andreev17%
Sevi Idriz17%
Miha Trdan14%
Francisco Politino11%
Julien Lamy10%
Adrián Cova10%
Lucas Ryan10%
Todor Pavlov6%
Parvizdzhon Umarbaev6%
Cătălin Itu6%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Zapro Dinev0%
Andrei Chindriş0%
Bojan Milosavljević0%
Martin Ruskov0%
Martin Atanasov0%
Ivaylo Ivanov0%
Petar Zovko0%
Efe Ali0%
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski0%
Enzo Espinoza0%
Francisco Politino0%
Axel Velev0%
Efe Ali0%
Ivaylo Ivanov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski40%
Ivaylo Ivanov33%
Enzo Espinoza33%
Parvizdzhon Umarbaev28%
Cătălin Itu28%
Juan Perea27%
Zapro Dinev25%
Adrián Cova25%
Sevi Idriz25%
Ivaylo Ivanov24%
Bojan Milosavljević22%
Lucas Ryan20%
Martin Ruskov17%
Petar Andreev17%
Miha Trdan14%
Efe Ali14%
Todor Pavlov12%
Francisco Politino11%
Andrei Chindriş11%
Martin Atanasov11%
Julien Lamy10%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Dimitar Iliev0%
Joël Zwarts0%
Petar Zovko0%
Efe Ali0%
Francisco Politino0%
Axel Velev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivaylo Ivanov33%
Dimitar Iliev20%
Julien Lamy20%
Parvizdzhon Umarbaev17%
Petar Andreev17%
Joël Zwarts12%
Todor Pavlov6%
Cătălin Itu6%
Francisco Politino0%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Zapro Dinev0%
Andrei Chindriş0%
Bojan Milosavljević0%
Martin Ruskov0%
Martin Atanasov0%
Adrián Cova0%
Petar Zovko0%
Efe Ali0%
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski0%
Juan Perea0%
Lucas Ryan0%
Enzo Espinoza0%
Miha Trdan0%
Francisco Politino0%
Axel Velev0%
Efe Ali0%
Ivaylo Ivanov0%
Sevi Idriz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski20%
Juan Perea18%
Joël Zwarts12%
Cătălin Itu11%
Sevi Idriz8%
Parvizdzhon Umarbaev6%
Julien Lamy5%
Adrián Cova5%
Francisco Politino0%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Zapro Dinev0%
Dimitar Iliev0%
Andrei Chindriş0%
Bojan Milosavljević0%
Martin Ruskov0%
Martin Atanasov0%
Ivaylo Ivanov0%
Petar Zovko0%
Efe Ali0%
Lucas Ryan0%
Todor Pavlov0%
Petar Andreev0%
Enzo Espinoza0%
Miha Trdan0%
Francisco Politino0%
Axel Velev0%
Efe Ali0%
Ivaylo Ivanov0%
Arda Kardzhali · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivelin Popov30%
Birsent Karagaren28%
Antonio Vutov27%
Wilson Samaké18%
Dimitar Velkovski17%
Isnaba Mané17%
Andre Shinyashiki12%
Atanas Kabov6%
Idowu David Akintola6%
Gustavo Cascardo5%
Patrick Luan5%
Svetoslav Kovachev5%
Félix Eboa Eboa4%
Serkan Yussein4%
Anatoli Gospodinov0%
Lachezar Kotev0%
Martin Paskalev0%
Ivan Tilev0%
Plamen Krachunov0%
Vyacheslav Velev0%
Emil Viyachki0%
Jalal Huseynov0%
Georgi Nikolov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dimitar Velkovski33%
Gustavo Cascardo30%
Svetoslav Kovachev29%
Idowu David Akintola28%
Georgi Nikolov22%
Wilson Samaké18%
Félix Eboa Eboa17%
Emil Viyachki17%
Isnaba Mané17%
Lachezar Kotev13%
Martin Paskalev12%
Atanas Kabov12%
Ivelin Popov10%
Patrick Luan10%
Antonio Vutov9%
Vyacheslav Velev9%
Serkan Yussein8%
Anatoli Gospodinov8%
Birsent Karagaren8%
Andre Shinyashiki6%
Jalal Huseynov5%
Ivan Tilev0%
Plamen Krachunov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lachezar Kotev17%
Isnaba Mané17%
Svetoslav Kovachev14%
Atanas Kabov12%
Andre Shinyashiki12%
Ivan Tilev11%
Gustavo Cascardo10%
Birsent Karagaren8%
Patrick Luan5%
Antonio Vutov5%
Serkan Yussein4%
Anatoli Gospodinov0%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Martin Paskalev0%
Félix Eboa Eboa0%
Plamen Krachunov0%
Ivelin Popov0%
Vyacheslav Velev0%
Emil Viyachki0%
Idowu David Akintola0%
Jalal Huseynov0%
Georgi Nikolov0%
Wilson Samaké0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georgi Nikolov22%
Andre Shinyashiki12%
Ivelin Popov10%
Birsent Karagaren8%
Dimitar Velkovski6%
Idowu David Akintola6%
Patrick Luan5%
Vyacheslav Velev5%
Serkan Yussein0%
Atanas Kabov0%
Antonio Vutov0%
Anatoli Gospodinov0%
Lachezar Kotev0%
Martin Paskalev0%
Ivan Tilev0%
Svetoslav Kovachev0%
Félix Eboa Eboa0%
Plamen Krachunov0%
Gustavo Cascardo0%
Emil Viyachki0%
Jalal Huseynov0%
Isnaba Mané0%
Wilson Samaké0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Arda Kardzhali have a similar squad value (both €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Arda Kardzhali have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Arda Kardzhali have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Arda Kardzhali have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Levski Sofia
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofia