Lokomotiv Plovdiv’s defensive record at home, conceding just one goal per match, contrasts with Cherno More Varna’s away woes, allowing 1.42 goals on the road. Both sides have faced opponents of similar strength, with Lokomotiv scoring 1.21 goals and Cherno More 1.0 on average. The model projects a tight 2.1-goal affair, most likely ending 1-1 with a 14.6% chance. The favourite outcome is a Lokomotiv win, with a 40% chance of victory, a 32% chance of a draw, and a 27% chance of Cherno More triumph. The single most likely total is two goals, with a 28% probability. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.5% edge 4), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.2% edge 6), Under 5.5 (97.9% edge 3), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.4% edge 6), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.2% edge 5).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win
40.5%
Avg Implied 37.1% · @ 2.48
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.55
Pinnacle
2.55
1xBet
2.54
Marathonbet
2.53
Draw
32.2%
Avg Implied 30.4% · @ 3.02
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.15
Dafabet
3.10
Bet365
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Pinnacle
3.06
Cherno More Varna win
27.4%
Avg Implied 32.5% · @ 2.83
Edge
-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.90
Pinnacle
2.89
1xBet
2.88
Betano
2.87
Superbet
2.87
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.13
0.86
1.07
0.62
1.19
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
-
-
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (24)
0.83
1.12
0.86
1.07
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Cherno More Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cherno More Varna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.33
1.00
1.20
0.93
1.47
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.33
1.33
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (24)
0.96
1.33
0.92
1.25
1.00
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
63.8%
@ 1.38-3.3%
Under 1.5
36.2%
@ 2.81+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Under
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.82
Superbet
2.80
BetVictor
2.80
Unibet
2.80
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
35.4%
@ 2.23-6.4%
Under 2.5
64.6%
@ 1.61+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.30
1xBet
2.29
Pinnacle
2.27
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Under
Marathonbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
BetVictor
1.60
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.4%
@ 4.07-6.3%
Under 3.5
83.6%
@ 1.20+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.40
Unibet
4.25
Pinnacle
4.17
1xBet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Unibet
1.18
Both teams to score
Yes
43.4%
@ 1.88-5.7%
No
56.6%
@ 1.81+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.90
BetVictor
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Unibet
1.86
No
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Superbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%@ 5.43+6.6%
0-0
13.4%@ 7.17+7.3%
1-0
13.0%@ 6.66+6.5%
0-1
9.9%@ 7.14+3.8%
2-0
8.5%@ 10.76+4.5%
2-1
7.9%@ 8.92+3.0%
1-2
6.2%@ 9.76+1.7%
0-2
5.2%@ 12.39+1.7%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals ↓
Cherno More Varna goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.9%
5.2%
1.6%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.2%
1.9%
0.4%
2
8.5%
7.9%
3.7%
1.1%
0.3%
3
3.4%
3.1%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.0%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals (down), columns = Cherno More Varna goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is 0.14 points worse than Cherno More Varna in terms of average points per game (0.43 vs 0.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is 0.71 goals worse than Cherno More Varna in terms of goals scored per game (0.43 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is 0.86 goals better than Cherno More Varna in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 2.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
For 3.3 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 9.8 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cherno More Varna
For 4.1 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 10.7 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
8.2
7.8
2.5
2.5
2.5
24.3
24.2
24.4
vs Stronger (9)
9.0
11.0
8.3
2.1
1.7
2.3
22.0
19.0
23.0
vs Similar (40)
7.5
8.0
6.7
2.6
2.7
2.5
25.0
24.7
25.6
vs Weaker (1)
14.0
-
14.0
3.0
-
3.0
20.0
-
20.0
% over line
33%
38%
27%
40%
46%
35%
67%
62%
73%
% under line
67%
62%
73%
60%
54%
65%
33%
38%
27%
This opponent (Cherno More Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cherno More Varna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.6
8.1
2.2
1.8
2.6
24.8
25.2
24.4
vs Stronger (13)
10.8
13.0
9.8
2.9
1.1
5.0
25.5
27.5
24.5
vs Similar (37)
8.0
8.8
7.2
1.9
2.0
1.9
24.5
24.6
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
50%
42%
32%
28%
36%
77%
90%
67%
% under line
55%
50%
58%
68%
72%
64%
23%
10%
33%
This opponent (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.6
Botev Plovdiv
10.1
Spartak Varna
10.0
CSKA Sofia
9.6
Levski Sofia
9.5
CSKA 1948
9.4
Ludogorets
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.4
Botev Vratsa
9.4
Septemvri Sofia
9.1
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Arda Kardzhali
8.7
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
5.0
Botev Vratsa
4.8
Spartak Varna
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Ludogorets
4.8
Cherno More Varna
4.7
Slavia Sofia
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
Dunav Ruse
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.0
Botev Vratsa
24.7
Levski Sofia
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.4
Slavia Sofia
23.9
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.9
Septemvri Sofia
22.8
CSKA 1948
22.7
Spartak Varna
22.7
CSKA Sofia
22.6
Botev Plovdiv
22.4
Ludogorets
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
37.4%
@ 2.30-2.6%
Under 9.5
62.6%
@ 1.53+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.37
Marathonbet
2.36
Unibet
2.16
Under
Unibet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.54
Marathonbet
1.48
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.9%
Under 3.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
63.8%
Under 21.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Draw
72.6%
Avg Implied 67.5% · @ 1.37
Edge
+5.1%
40%
32%
27%
covers Lokomotiv Plovdiv + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Unibet
1.37
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Cherno More Varna
67.8%
Avg Implied 69.6% · @ 1.33
Edge
-1.7%
40%
32%
27%
covers Lokomotiv Plovdiv + Cherno More Varna
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Draw or Cherno More Varna
59.5%
Avg Implied 62.9% · @ 1.47
Edge
-3.4%
40%
32%
27%
covers Draw + Cherno More Varna
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Superbet
1.48
BetVictor
1.47
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 0.5
Over
69.5%
@ 1.33-0.1%
Under
30.5%
@ 3.03+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.08
Superbet
3.05
Pinnacle
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 1.5
Over
33.2%
@ 2.66-1.6%
Under
66.8%
@ 1.42+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.92
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.63
BetVictor
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 2.5
Over
11.7%
@ 6.37-2.8%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.09+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
@ 14.88-3.2%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Cherno More Varna over/under 0.5
Over
60.5%
@ 1.38-6.3%
Under
39.5%
@ 2.79+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.87
Marathonbet
2.83
Betano
2.82
Superbet
2.77
Cherno More Varna over/under 1.5
Over
23.8%
@ 2.90-8.1%
Under
76.2%
@ 1.36+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.99
Marathonbet
2.89
BetVictor
2.88
Under
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Cherno More Varna over/under 2.5
Over
6.8%
@ 7.40-5.8%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.06+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Cherno More Varna over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
@ 17.25-4.1%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lokomotiv Plovdiv, so a minus line means Lokomotiv Plovdiv give that many goals of a start and Cherno More Varna receive them. At -1, Lokomotiv Plovdiv must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lokomotiv Plovdiv win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lokomotiv Plovdiv)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv -2
6.0%
@ 11.24-1.9%
Draw -2
12.1%
@ 6.66-1.2%
Cherno More Varna +2
82.0%
@ 1.11+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.95
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Lokomotiv Plovdiv)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv -1
18.0%
@ 5.22+1.0%
Draw -1
22.4%
@ 3.94-0.1%
Cherno More Varna +1
59.5%
@ 1.47-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
Unibet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Draw
Marathonbet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Away
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Unibet
1.47
Betfair
1.44
Handicap +1 (Lokomotiv Plovdiv)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv +1
72.6%
@ 1.39+8.0%
Draw +1
17.3%
@ 4.33-3.5%
Cherno More Varna -1
10.1%
@ 6.17-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Draw
Marathonbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.00
Away
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
Unibet
5.75
Handicap +2 (Lokomotiv Plovdiv)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv +2
89.9%
@ 1.10+6.8%
Draw +2
7.4%
@ 8.50-3.4%
Cherno More Varna -2
2.7%
@ 15.00-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Away
Bet365
15.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.57
0.36
0.50
0.25
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.58
0.36
0.50
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Cherno More Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cherno More Varna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.50
0.33
0.40
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.29
0.54
0.25
0.50
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.4%
@ 1.47+3.3%
Under 0.5
33.6%
@ 2.52-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Under
William Hil
2.70
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.61
Unibet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
27.7%
@ 3.23-1.1%
Under 1.5
72.3%
@ 1.31+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.33
BetVictor
3.30
Betano
3.30
1xBet
3.25
Under
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.4%
@ 8.64-1.4%
Under 2.5
90.6%
@ 1.04+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
BetVictor
9.50
1xBet
8.90
William Hil
8.50
Marathonbet
8.50
Under
William Hil
1.07
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.8%
@ 2.21+2.8%
Under
55.2%
@ 1.60-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.25
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Under
Unibet
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Betano
1.60
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.0%
@ 7.63-1.2%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.06+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
8.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
@ 12.50-5.3%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Cherno More Varna over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.1%
@ 2.34-0.4%
Under
60.9%
@ 1.52+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Pinnacle
2.39
Superbet
2.37
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.30
Under
Unibet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Cherno More Varna over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.6%
@ 8.63-2.2%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.05+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.00
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Cherno More Varna over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.50
0.57
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.67
-
-
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.54
0.50
0.57
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Cherno More Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cherno More Varna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.79
0.67
0.75
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.1%
@ 1.30+1.5%
Under 0.5
26.9%
@ 3.26-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.35
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.6%
@ 2.38-0.3%
Under 1.5
61.4%
@ 1.52+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.42
1xBet
2.41
William Hil
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Unibet
2.38
Under
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Superbet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.6%
@ 5.52-2.2%
Under 2.5
85.4%
@ 1.11+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.70
William Hil
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.35
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.1%
@ 1.85+0.1%
Under
49.9%
@ 1.85-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Under
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.82
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.9%
@ 5.47-2.1%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.12+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.65
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.7%
@ 10.75-6.1%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.03+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Cherno More Varna over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.2%
@ 1.95-2.3%
Under
54.8%
@ 1.76+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.93
Betano
1.91
Under
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Cherno More Varna over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.8%
@ 6.05-1.5%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.10+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.55
Marathonbet
6.30
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Cherno More Varna over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
@ 11.50-5.3%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+4.1%
Under 5.5
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.6%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+3.2%
Under 4.5
93.6%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.05
BetVictor
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
+4.9%
Away under 2.5 goals
93.2%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
+5.8%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.05
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-
+2.2%
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.04
William Hil
1.07
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
+1.4%
Home +2 handicap
89.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+6.8%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.06
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
+1.2%
Home under 2.5 goals
88.3%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
+2.8%
Over 2.5 cards
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.2%
1.10
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-
-
+1.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.4%
1.11
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
+2.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.1%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
-
-
+2.1%
Under 3.5
83.6%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Unibet
1.18
+6.3%
Under 11.5 corners
83.0%
1.22
Unibet
1.22
-
-
-
-
+7.8%
Away +2 handicap
82.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+3.0%
Over 19.5 fouls
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.2%
1.36
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
+8.1%
Under 10.5 corners
74.0%
1.31
Unibet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.26
-
-
-
+4.4%
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.1%
1.30
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
+1.5%
Over 3.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.6%
1.37
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Unibet
1.37
+5.1%
Home +1 handicap
72.6%
1.39
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
-
-
+8.0%
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.3%
1.31
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+1.1%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lokomotiv Plovdiv · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joël Zwarts38%
Dimitar Iliev20%
Juan Perea18%
Petar Andreev17%
Sevi Idriz17%
Miha Trdan14%
Francisco Politino11%
Julien Lamy10%
Adrián Cova10%
Lucas Ryan10%
Todor Pavlov6%
Parvizdzhon Umarbaev6%
Cătălin Itu6%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Zapro Dinev0%
Andrei Chindriş0%
Bojan Milosavljević0%
Martin Ruskov0%
Martin Atanasov0%
Ivaylo Ivanov0%
Petar Zovko0%
Efe Ali0%
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski0%
Enzo Espinoza0%
Francisco Politino0%
Axel Velev0%
Efe Ali0%
Ivaylo Ivanov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski40%
Ivaylo Ivanov33%
Enzo Espinoza33%
Parvizdzhon Umarbaev28%
Cătălin Itu28%
Juan Perea27%
Zapro Dinev25%
Adrián Cova25%
Sevi Idriz25%
Ivaylo Ivanov24%
Bojan Milosavljević22%
Lucas Ryan20%
Martin Ruskov17%
Petar Andreev17%
Miha Trdan14%
Efe Ali14%
Todor Pavlov12%
Francisco Politino11%
Andrei Chindriş11%
Martin Atanasov11%
Julien Lamy10%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Dimitar Iliev0%
Joël Zwarts0%
Petar Zovko0%
Efe Ali0%
Francisco Politino0%
Axel Velev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivaylo Ivanov33%
Dimitar Iliev20%
Julien Lamy20%
Parvizdzhon Umarbaev17%
Petar Andreev17%
Joël Zwarts12%
Todor Pavlov6%
Cătălin Itu6%
Francisco Politino0%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Zapro Dinev0%
Andrei Chindriş0%
Bojan Milosavljević0%
Martin Ruskov0%
Martin Atanasov0%
Adrián Cova0%
Petar Zovko0%
Efe Ali0%
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski0%
Juan Perea0%
Lucas Ryan0%
Enzo Espinoza0%
Miha Trdan0%
Francisco Politino0%
Axel Velev0%
Efe Ali0%
Ivaylo Ivanov0%
Sevi Idriz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski20%
Juan Perea18%
Joël Zwarts12%
Cătălin Itu11%
Sevi Idriz8%
Parvizdzhon Umarbaev6%
Julien Lamy5%
Adrián Cova5%
Francisco Politino0%
Nikolay Nikolaev0%
Zapro Dinev0%
Dimitar Iliev0%
Andrei Chindriş0%
Bojan Milosavljević0%
Martin Ruskov0%
Martin Atanasov0%
Ivaylo Ivanov0%
Petar Zovko0%
Efe Ali0%
Lucas Ryan0%
Todor Pavlov0%
Petar Andreev0%
Enzo Espinoza0%
Miha Trdan0%
Francisco Politino0%
Axel Velev0%
Efe Ali0%
Ivaylo Ivanov0%
Cherno More Varna · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Georgi Lazarov21%
Weslen Junior17%
João Pedro12%
Vasil Panayotov11%
Asen Chandarov11%
Celso Sidney11%
Dimitar Tonev10%
Berk Beyhan10%
Nikolay Zlatev5%
Plamen Iliev0%
Tsvetomir Panov0%
Ertan Tombak0%
Zhivko Atanasov0%
David Teles0%
Andreias Calcan0%
Dani Martín0%
Vlatko Drobarov0%
Kristian Tomov0%
Asen Donchev0%
Martin Milushev0%
Rosen Stefanov0%
Gustavo França0%
João Bandaro0%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo0%
Jorge Padilla0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Weslen Junior33%
Tsvetomir Panov27%
Asen Chandarov26%
Nikolay Zlatev25%
Asen Donchev21%
Andreias Calcan20%
Berk Beyhan20%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo20%
David Teles19%
Dani Martín19%
Ertan Tombak14%
Jorge Padilla12%
Vasil Panayotov11%
Zhivko Atanasov11%
Vlatko Drobarov11%
Celso Sidney11%
Dimitar Tonev10%
Rosen Stefanov8%
Plamen Iliev0%
João Pedro0%
Kristian Tomov0%
Martin Milushev0%
Gustavo França0%
João Bandaro0%
Georgi Lazarov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martin Milushev20%
Asen Donchev11%
David Teles6%
Dani Martín6%
Vasil Panayotov6%
Asen Chandarov5%
Plamen Iliev0%
Tsvetomir Panov0%
Ertan Tombak0%
Zhivko Atanasov0%
Andreias Calcan0%
Vlatko Drobarov0%
Dimitar Tonev0%
Weslen Junior0%
João Pedro0%
Kristian Tomov0%
Celso Sidney0%
Rosen Stefanov0%
Nikolay Zlatev0%
Gustavo França0%
Berk Beyhan0%
João Bandaro0%
Georgi Lazarov0%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo0%
Jorge Padilla0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georgi Lazarov16%
Nikolay Zlatev15%
João Pedro12%
Asen Chandarov5%
Plamen Iliev0%
Tsvetomir Panov0%
Vasil Panayotov0%
Ertan Tombak0%
Zhivko Atanasov0%
David Teles0%
Andreias Calcan0%
Dani Martín0%
Vlatko Drobarov0%
Dimitar Tonev0%
Weslen Junior0%
Kristian Tomov0%
Asen Donchev0%
Martin Milushev0%
Celso Sidney0%
Rosen Stefanov0%
Gustavo França0%
Berk Beyhan0%
João Bandaro0%
Phellipe Cardoso Araujo0%
Jorge Padilla0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Lokomotiv Plovdiv's squad is €2m more valuable than Cherno More Varna's (€9m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Cherno More Varna have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Lokomotiv Plovdiv's midfield is €1m more valuable than Cherno More Varna's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Lokomotiv Plovdiv's defence is €2m more valuable than Cherno More Varna's (€4m vs €2m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Levski Sofia
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
Dunav Ruse
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofia