Lokomotiv Plovdiv face CSKA Sofia in a Bulgarian Cup clash that the model favours an away win, with a 56% chance for CSKA, 24% for a draw and 19% for a home victory. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, yet the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.6% probability. Lokomotiv, playing at home against a stronger side, averages one goal scored and none conceded, while CSKA, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.57 goals scored and 0.71 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.9%, Under 6.5 at 97%, Away +2 handicap at 92.7%, Under 5.5 at 92.4%, Home under 2.5 goals at 91.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 87.7% and Over 19.5 fouls at 84.9%. Each selection is presented with its exact probability, and the overall shape of the match remains a CSKA-led, low-to-mid-scoring affair.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, CSKA Sofia, failed to secure the win, with the match ending in a 1-1 draw. The model had picked an away win with a 56% probability, but that call proved wrong. Lokomotiv Plovdiv, after four straight defeats, managed a stalemate, while CSKA Sofia, coming off a 0-3 loss, could not convert their 1.57 average goals per game into a victory. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 (99%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Under 6.5 (97%), Away +2 handicap (92.7%), Under 5.5 (92.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.4%), and Away under 3.5 goals (87.7%). The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely 1-1 outcome with 11.6% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win✗ Miss
19.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia win✗ Miss
56.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.97
1.13
0.73
1.33
1.20
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (22)
1.18
1.00
1.00
0.92
1.40
1.10
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.75
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.73
1.71
0.65
1.31
0.85
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.85
0.86
0.71
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
2.00
0.65
2.30
0.60
1.57
0.71
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.9%
Under 1.5
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.9%
Under 2.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.5%
Under 3.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.6%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.6%
0-1
9.1%
0-0
6.4%
1-3
6.2%
0-3
6.0%
2-1
5.4%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals ↓
CSKA Sofia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
9.1%
9.6%
6.0%
2.9%
1
4.5%
12%
9.9%
6.2%
2.9%
2
2.9%
5.4%
5.1%
3.2%
1.5%
3
1.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals (down), columns = CSKA Sofia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ludogorets
2.67
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
2.60
Botev Plovdiv
2.33
CSKA Sofia
2.17
Metalurg Pernik
2.00
Arda Kardzhali
2.00
Levski Sofia
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Cherno More Varna
2.00
Rilski Sportist
1.75
Beroe
1.67
Slavia Sofia
1.50
Chernolomets 1919
1.50
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.50
Spartak Varna
1.50
CSKA 1948
1.50
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.50
Belasitsa
1.50
FK Minyor Pernik
1.50
Yantra 2019
1.50
Dobrudzha
1.50
Sportist Svoge
1.50
Botev Vratsa
1.40
Dunav Ruse
1.33
Sayana Haskovo
1.33
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Hebar 1918
1.00
Germaneya
0.97
Benkovski Isperih
0.97
Bdin
0.97
Vitosha Bistritsa
0.97
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.50
Montana
0.50
Litex
0.00
Kom Berkovitsa
0.00
Yambol 1915
0.00
Zagorets
0.00
Spartak Plovdiv
0.00
Septemvri Tervel
0.00
Partizan
0.00
Botev Novi Pazar
0.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.00
Sevlievo
0.00
Vihren
0.00
Spartak Pleven
0.00
Marek
0.00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.00
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is 1.67 points worse than CSKA Sofia in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA 1948
3.50
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
3.20
Spartak Varna
3.00
Metalurg Pernik
2.67
Fratria
2.50
Ludogorets
2.17
Botev Plovdiv
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
2.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.00
Rilski Sportist
2.00
Yantra 2019
2.00
CSKA Sofia
1.83
Sayana Haskovo
1.67
Arda Kardzhali
1.67
Beroe
1.67
Slavia Sofia
1.50
Chernolomets 1919
1.50
Dobrudzha
1.50
Sportist Svoge
1.50
Cherno More Varna
1.40
Germaneya
1.22
Benkovski Isperih
1.22
Bdin
1.22
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.22
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Yambol 1915
1.00
Zagorets
1.00
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
1.00
Belasitsa
1.00
FK Minyor Pernik
1.00
Levski Sofia
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Marek
1.00
Montana
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.60
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.50
Litex
0.00
Kom Berkovitsa
0.00
Spartak Plovdiv
0.00
Septemvri Tervel
0.00
Partizan
0.00
Botev Novi Pazar
0.00
Sevlievo
0.00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
0.00
Hebar 1918
0.00
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is 1.33 goals worse than CSKA Sofia in terms of goals scored per game (0.50 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hebar 1918
0.00
Botev Plovdiv
0.33
Ludogorets
0.33
Levski Sofia
0.33
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.40
Cherno More Varna
0.40
Yantra 2019
0.50
Botev Vratsa
0.60
Dunav Ruse
0.67
CSKA Sofia
0.83
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Spartak Plovdiv
1.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.00
Arda Kardzhali
1.00
Sevlievo
1.00
FK Minyor Pernik
1.00
Beroe
1.00
Metalurg Pernik
1.33
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.50
Spartak Varna
1.50
CSKA 1948
1.50
Fratria
1.50
Rilski Sportist
1.75
Sayana Haskovo
2.00
Botev Novi Pazar
2.00
Septemvri Sofia
2.00
Vihren
2.00
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.00
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
2.00
Montana
2.00
Dobrudzha
2.00
Sportist Svoge
2.00
Germaneya
2.06
Benkovski Isperih
2.06
Bdin
2.06
Vitosha Bistritsa
2.06
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.50
Litex
3.00
Zagorets
3.00
Septemvri Tervel
3.00
Partizan
3.00
Chernolomets 1919
3.00
Belasitsa
3.00
Marek
3.00
Kom Berkovitsa
4.00
Yambol 1915
7.00
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is 0.67 goals worse than CSKA Sofia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or Draw✓ Hit
43.7%
Avg Implied -
19%
24%
56%
covers Lokomotiv Plovdiv + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv or CSKA Sofia✗ Miss
75.6%
Avg Implied -
19%
24%
56%
covers Lokomotiv Plovdiv + CSKA Sofia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or CSKA Sofia✓ Hit
80.7%
Avg Implied -
19%
24%
56%
covers Draw + CSKA Sofia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.4%
Under
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.6%
Under
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lokomotiv Plovdiv, so a minus line means Lokomotiv Plovdiv give that many goals of a start and CSKA Sofia receive them. At -1, Lokomotiv Plovdiv must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lokomotiv Plovdiv win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.40
0.71
0.41
0.46
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.54
0.43
0.43
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (17)
0.82
0.29
0.90
0.40
0.71
0.14
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.40
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.55
0.50
0.50
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.33
1.00
0.24
0.85
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.31
0.43
0.29
0.83
0.33
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.35
1.40
0.20
0.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bulgaria: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →