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Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia Result & Analysis

Date: 26/07/2026
Time: 18:15
Final 2-1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Vs
48%
30%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
Bulgaria: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Lokomotiv Plovdiv a 48% win probability against Septemvri Sofia in the Bulgaria: First League on 2026-07-26, with 30% for the draw and 22% for Septemvri Sofia. The model estimates around 2.3 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (81%).

Results analysis

Lokomotiv Plovdiv finished 2-1 against Septemvri Sofia (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 48% home win, 30% draw and 22% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (81%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lokomotiv Plovdiv win✓ Hit
48.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Septemvri Sofia win✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D01L20W20W02L04L21W00D01LA·BOT08/04A·BER13/04H·CHE26/04A·BOT03/05H·ARD08/05A·CHE12/05A·ARD16/05H·BOT25/05A·LUD29/05A·LUD18/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.131.000.860.881.38
vs Stronger (9)0.441.670.672.000.331.50
vs Similar (17)0.940.940.890.671.001.25
vs Weaker (4)2.000.752.000.002.001.50
Clean sheet %37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D11D12L11D10W10W11D21W11DH·SPA16/04A·LOK27/04H·MON01/05A·SLA06/05A·BOT10/05H·SPA14/05A·BER18/05H·DOB22/05H·YAN28/05H·ARD18/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.500.871.330.871.67
vs Stronger (19)0.891.841.001.670.712.14
vs Similar (11)0.820.910.330.001.001.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.3%
Under 1.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.4%
Under 2.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.3%
Under 3.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.8%
No
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
13.3%
0-0
11.7%
2-0
10.2%
2-1 ✓
8.8%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
4.8%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals ↓
Septemvri Sofia goals →
01234
012%7.7%3.9%1.1%0.2%
113%14%5.4%1.6%0.3%
210%8.8%3.8%1.1%0.2%
34.8%4.1%1.8%0.5%0.1%
41.7%1.4%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals (down), columns = Septemvri Sofia goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Levski Sofia
2.25
CSKA 1948
1.86
Ludogorets
1.84
CSKA Sofia
1.75
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.56
Cherno More Varna
1.50
Arda Kardzhali
1.50
Botev Vratsa
1.43
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.27
Slavia Sofia
1.24
Botev Plovdiv
1.23
Dunav Ruse
1.14
Septemvri Sofia
1.03
Spartak Varna
1.00
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is 0.53 points better than Septemvri Sofia in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.03).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
1.97
Ludogorets
1.65
CSKA 1948
1.50
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.38
CSKA Sofia
1.31
Botev Plovdiv
1.29
Arda Kardzhali
1.17
Slavia Sofia
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.11
Dunav Ruse
1.01
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.97
Spartak Varna
0.95
Septemvri Sofia
0.89
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is 0.11 goals better than Septemvri Sofia in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.89).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ludogorets
0.68
Levski Sofia
0.69
CSKA Sofia
0.83
Botev Vratsa
0.86
Cherno More Varna
0.94
Arda Kardzhali
0.94
CSKA 1948
0.97
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.03
Slavia Sofia
1.19
Botev Plovdiv
1.29
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.30
Dunav Ruse
1.35
Spartak Varna
1.54
Septemvri Sofia
1.71
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is 0.68 goals better than Septemvri Sofia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.71).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
65%
Ludogorets
64%
CSKA Sofia
58%
Arda Kardzhali
52%
CSKA 1948
52%
Cherno More Varna
52%
Lokomotiv Sofia
51%
Botev Plovdiv
51%
Septemvri Sofia
47%
Botev Vratsa
47%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
45%
Slavia Sofia
44%
Spartak Varna
40%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is 2.2 percentage points worse than Septemvri Sofia in terms of average possession (45% vs 47%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv

For 3.3 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.2

🚩 Corners

110145445294210822763135991161010994A·BOTA·BOTH·SEPA·LEVH·CSKA·LUDH·SPAH·CHEH·ARDA·CSK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8

🟨 Cards

8035223222221431322618254437447A·BOTA·BOTH·SEPA·LEVH·CSKA·LUDH·SPAH·CHEH·ARDA·CSK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 9.8 · Total 22.8

⚠️ Fouls

2701591271010144127168141211141115151224192018192426252627A·BOTA·BOTH·SEPA·LEVH·CSKA·LUDH·SPAH·CHEH·ARDA·CSK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia

For 2.8 · Against 4.2 · Total 7.0

🚩 Corners

120244854533131754142461298438956H·DOBH·MONA·LOKH·SPAH·BOTH·ARDA·LOKA·LOKA·BOTH·CSK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.0

🟨 Cards

150872112332213233221215336445523H·DOBH·MONA·LOKH·SPAH·BOTH·ARDA·LOKA·LOKA·BOTH·CSK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 11.3 · Total 22.9

⚠️ Fouls

3401915913101091316118115101010158151234222022271915202327H·DOBH·MONA·LOKH·SPAH·BOTH·ARDA·LOKA·LOKA·BOTH·CSK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.08.47.62.42.32.524.224.224.1
vs Stronger (12)8.610.07.52.42.02.721.319.722.5
vs Similar (30)7.47.96.62.42.22.626.626.427.0
vs Weaker (8)8.88.09.32.43.02.021.221.021.3
% over line35%43%25%38%42%35%65%64%67%
% under line65%57%75%62%58%65%35%36%33%
This opponent (Septemvri Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.47.98.92.82.62.922.422.921.9
vs Stronger (31)8.88.19.82.82.82.922.823.422.0
vs Similar (19)7.77.28.02.62.22.921.721.821.7
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line34%36%33%38%35%42%59%57%60%
% under line66%64%67%62%65%58%41%43%40%
This opponent (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.4
Botev Plovdiv
10.2
CSKA Sofia
10.2
Spartak Varna
10.1
Levski Sofia
9.6
Ludogorets
9.5
Botev Vratsa
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.3
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Septemvri Sofia
8.9
Arda Kardzhali
8.6
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
4.9
Spartak Varna
4.9
Botev Vratsa
4.8
Cherno More Varna
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.7
Ludogorets
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.7
Slavia Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.1
Levski Sofia
24.7
Botev Vratsa
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.1
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.9
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Spartak Varna
23.0
Septemvri Sofia
22.9
CSKA 1948
22.9
Ludogorets
22.4
CSKA Sofia
22.4
Botev Plovdiv
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
38.4%
Under 9.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
64.3%
Under 3.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.4%
Under 21.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
BP (52)
€20m
AK (20)
€10m
CMV (22)
€6m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
BP (20)
€7m
AK (7)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
BP (11)
€4m
AK (3)
€3m
CMV (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
BP (21)
€8m
AK (10)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia · H/A from LP
DateH/AGameScore
13/03/26HLP Vs Septemvri Sofia1-0
03/10/25ASeptemvri Sofia Vs LP2-2
28/04/25ASeptemvri Sofia Vs LP2-0
16/02/25HLP Vs Septemvri Sofia0-1
26/08/24ASeptemvri Sofia Vs LP2-3
07/04/23HLP Vs Septemvri Sofia2-1
12/09/22ASeptemvri Sofia Vs LP0-1

Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/07/26ALudogorets Vs LP1-0
29/05/26ALudogorets Vs LP0-0
25/05/26HLP Vs Botev Plovdiv2-1
16/05/26AArda Kardzhali Vs LP4-0
12/05/26ACherno More Varna Vs LP2-0
08/05/26HLP Vs Arda Kardzhali2-0
03/05/26ABotev Plovdiv Vs LP0-2
26/04/26HLP Vs Cherno More Varna0-1
13/04/26ABeroe Vs LP0-0
08/04/26ABotev Plovdiv Vs LP1-1

Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/07/26HSS Vs Arda Kardzhali1-1
28/05/26HSS Vs Yantra 20192-1
22/05/26HSS Vs Dobrudzha1-1
18/05/26ABeroe Vs SS0-1
14/05/26HSS Vs Spartak Varna1-0
10/05/26ABotev Vratsa Vs SS1-1
06/05/26ASlavia Sofia Vs SS2-1
01/05/26HSS Vs Montana1-1
27/04/26ALokomotiv Sofia Vs SS1-1
16/04/26HSS Vs Spartak Varna0-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Bulgaria: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDL1.46
HomeWWLWW1.71
AwayWLLDL1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%50%27%
AVG goals2.061.922.19
Over 1.5 %66%54%77%
Over 2.5 %34%29%38%
Over 3.5 %14%8%19%
Scored1.021.041.00
Conceded1.040.881.19
BTTS40%33%46%
Clean Sheet36%46%27%
Corners8.078.477.58
Cards4.704.135.42
Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
Bulgaria: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 6 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWD1.10
HomeDWDWD1.27
AwayWDLDW0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%35%25%
AVG goals2.662.422.92
Over 1.5 %76%69%83%
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Over 3.5 %26%27%25%
Scored0.961.000.92
Conceded1.701.422.00
BTTS48%46%50%
Clean Sheet22%31%12%
Corners8.417.868.93
Cards4.764.864.67

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LudogoretsLudogorets515
100%
3.0
103+7
2.6
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
46
276132.00.6
64%
2CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia513
80%
2.6
133+10
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
26
106102.60.6
58%
3CSKA 1948CSKA 1948412
100%
3.0
114+7
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
52%
4Levski SofiaLevski Sofia412
100%
3.0
92+7
2.8
100%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
38
118192.20.5
65%
5Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali510
60%
2.0
84+4
2.4
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
4.0
100%
-
0%
10
3331.60.8
52%
6Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv57
40%
1.4
78-1
3.0
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
20
7481.41.6
51%
7Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna46
50%
1.5
64+2
2.5
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
5.0
100%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
40%
8Slavia SofiaSlavia Sofia45
25%
1.2
42+2
1.5
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.5
44%
9Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia54
20%
0.8
39-6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
5.0
100%
-
0%
0
0000.61.8
47%
10Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv53
20%
0.6
37-4
2.0
60%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
45%
11Dunav RuseDunav Ruse53
20%
0.6
49-5
2.6
100%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
12Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia52
0%
0.4
510-5
3.0
100%
60%
40%
-
0%
4.0
100%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
51%
13Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna51
0%
0.2
412-8
3.2
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3120.82.4
52%
14Botev VratsaBotev Vratsa51
0%
0.2
313-10
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.6
47%
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →

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