Lokomotiv Sofia’s recent form shows a shaky start, with two straight defeats and a 1-3 loss to Arda Kardzhali, while CSKA Sofia is still recovering from a 0-3 defeat to OFI but has won two of its last five matches. The model’s edge lies in its prediction that CSKA will win away, a 48% chance versus 22% for a Lokomotiv win and 30% for a draw. The expected total is 2.3 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.8% chance. Lokomotiv, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.67 conceded, whereas CSKA, away against a weaker side, averages 1.38 scored and 0.88 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.2%), Under 6.5 (99.1% with a 4% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (98.8% with a 3% edge), Under 5.5 (97.0% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.7% with a 7% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (94.5% with a 10% edge) and Home under 2.5 goals (94.1% with a 4% edge).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lokomotiv Sofia win
21.8%
Avg Implied 18.3% · @ 5.00
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
5.25
Bet365
5.25
Marathonbet
5.15
Betano
5.10
Pinnacle
5.09
Draw
29.5%
Avg Implied 23.5% · @ 3.89
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.09
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Dafabet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
CSKA Sofia win
48.7%
Avg Implied 58.2% · @ 1.57
Edge
-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Superbet
1.58
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lokomotiv Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.57
1.53
1.33
1.53
1.80
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
2.83
1.00
2.67
1.67
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.58
1.25
1.67
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.87
1.73
0.87
1.13
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.08
0.83
1.33
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (17)
1.88
0.71
2.33
0.56
1.38
0.88
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.0%
@ 1.21-8.1%
Under 1.5
32.0%
@ 3.87+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Under
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
4.00
Pinnacle
3.91
Superbet
3.90
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.2%
@ 1.71-14.3%
Under 2.5
59.8%
@ 2.05+14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.74
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
Under
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.9%
@ 2.72-14.0%
Under 3.5
80.1%
@ 1.40+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.78
BetVictor
2.75
Bet365
2.75
888Sport
2.75
Under
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
888Sport
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Both teams to score
Yes
45.4%
@ 1.73-8.1%
No
54.6%
@ 1.99+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.76
Unibet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
No
William Hil
2.05
888Sport
2.05
BetVictor
2.00
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%@ 7.11+7.5%
0-1
13.1%@ 6.92+6.7%
0-0
11.3%@ 11.78+7.6%
0-2
10.2%@ 7.32+4.2%
1-2
8.9%@ 7.31+2.8%
1-0
7.5%@ 13.72+4.3%
2-1
5.4%@ 14.14+2.3%
0-3
4.8%@ 10.98+0.8%
Lokomotiv Sofia goals ↓
CSKA Sofia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
13%
10%
4.8%
1.7%
1
7.5%
14%
8.9%
4.2%
1.5%
2
3.8%
5.4%
3.9%
1.8%
0.7%
3
1.1%
1.6%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lokomotiv Sofia goals (down), columns = CSKA Sofia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Lokomotiv Sofia is 2.17 points worse than CSKA Sofia in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Lokomotiv Sofia is 1.50 goals worse than CSKA Sofia in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Lokomotiv Sofia is 1.33 goals worse than CSKA Sofia in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lokomotiv Sofia
For 5.1 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 9.0 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
CSKA Sofia
For 5.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lokomotiv Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.1
9.1
2.4
2.2
2.7
22.4
20.9
23.9
vs Stronger (11)
6.5
8.0
6.0
0.8
0.1
2.0
22.8
26.0
21.7
vs Similar (39)
9.5
9.2
9.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
22.3
20.6
24.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
34%
20%
50%
32%
27%
38%
52%
40%
64%
% under line
66%
80%
50%
68%
73%
62%
48%
60%
36%
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.3
8.6
3.1
2.6
3.5
23.4
22.3
24.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
6.5
9.5
5.0
3.4
2.4
4.4
28.7
26.5
29.8
vs Weaker (34)
9.6
9.3
9.9
2.9
2.8
3.1
22.0
21.5
22.4
% over line
54%
62%
47%
40%
32%
48%
64%
62%
67%
% under line
46%
38%
53%
60%
68%
52%
36%
38%
33%
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.3
Botev Plovdiv
10.2
Spartak Varna
10.1
CSKA Sofia
9.7
Levski Sofia
9.6
Ludogorets
9.4
Botev Vratsa
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.3
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Septemvri Sofia
8.9
Arda Kardzhali
8.7
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Cherno More Varna
4.9
Spartak Varna
4.9
Septemvri Sofia
4.8
Botev Vratsa
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Ludogorets
4.8
Slavia Sofia
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1
Dunav Ruse
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.1
Levski Sofia
24.7
Botev Vratsa
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.1
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.8
Septemvri Sofia
23.0
Spartak Varna
22.9
CSKA 1948
22.8
Ludogorets
22.4
CSKA Sofia
22.3
Botev Plovdiv
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
39.4%
@ 1.77-13.0%
Under 9.5
60.6%
@ 1.95+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.80
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.77
Unibet
1.66
Under
Unibet
2.05
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.88
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
65.9%
Under 3.5
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
53.3%
Under 21.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lokomotiv Sofia or Draw
51.3%
Avg Implied 41.5% · @ 2.24
Edge
+9.9%
22%
30%
49%
covers Lokomotiv Sofia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.25
William Hil
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Lokomotiv Sofia or CSKA Sofia
70.5%
Avg Implied 76.9% · @ 1.21
Edge
-6.4%
22%
30%
49%
covers Lokomotiv Sofia + CSKA Sofia
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Draw or CSKA Sofia
78.2%
Avg Implied 81.7% · @ 1.14
Edge
-3.4%
22%
30%
49%
covers Draw + CSKA Sofia
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
888Sport
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 0.5
Over
58.2%
@ 1.52-2.6%
Under
41.8%
@ 2.36+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.59
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Under
Betfair
2.50
888Sport
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Superbet
2.35
1xBet
2.35
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 1.5
Over
21.7%
@ 3.51-4.6%
Under
78.3%
@ 1.25+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.68
Marathonbet
3.54
1xBet
3.54
Superbet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Under
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 2.5
Over
5.8%
@ 9.40-4.1%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.04+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
10.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.20
Marathonbet
9.20
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
@ 20.75-3.4%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5
Over
75.9%
@ 1.11-7.5%
Under
24.1%
@ 5.59+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
888Sport
5.75
1xBet
5.60
Superbet
5.45
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5
Over
41.6%
@ 1.63-15.5%
Under
58.4%
@ 2.16+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.17
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5
Over
17.2%
@ 2.95-14.1%
Under
82.8%
@ 1.34+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.03
Betfair
3.00
888Sport
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Under
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
CSKA Sofia over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
@ 6.03-9.9%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.11+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
888Sport
6.00
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lokomotiv Sofia, so a minus line means Lokomotiv Sofia give that many goals of a start and CSKA Sofia receive them. At -1, Lokomotiv Sofia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lokomotiv Sofia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lokomotiv Sofia)
Lokomotiv Sofia -2
1.9%
@ 29.00-1.4%
Draw -2
5.7%
@ 17.00+0.2%
CSKA Sofia +2
92.4%
@ 1.03+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
29.00
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Away
Bet365
1.03
Handicap -1 (Lokomotiv Sofia)
Lokomotiv Sofia -1
7.6%
@ 9.92-1.3%
Draw -1
14.2%
@ 5.80-0.8%
CSKA Sofia +1
78.2%
@ 1.15+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.75
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.10
Marathonbet
4.30
Away
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Handicap +1 (Lokomotiv Sofia)
Lokomotiv Sofia +1
51.3%
@ 2.24+11.6%
Draw +1
24.0%
@ 3.51-1.3%
CSKA Sofia -1
24.6%
@ 2.54-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Unibet
2.20
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Unibet
3.30
Away
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.48
Handicap +2 (Lokomotiv Sofia)
Lokomotiv Sofia +2
75.4%
@ 1.44+12.9%
Draw +2
15.1%
@ 4.55-4.6%
CSKA Sofia -2
9.5%
@ 5.04-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.35
Away
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.65
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lokomotiv Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.53
0.47
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.67
0.58
0.58
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.40
0.67
0.47
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.54
0.33
0.67
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
0.71
0.29
0.89
0.33
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.3%
@ 1.31-2.7%
Under 0.5
31.7%
@ 3.19+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Under
Betano
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
William Hil
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.2%
@ 2.46-7.5%
Under 1.5
69.8%
@ 1.49+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.59
Unibet
2.48
William Hil
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Under
Betano
1.57
William Hil
1.50
Superbet
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.1%
@ 5.69-5.2%
Under 2.5
88.9%
@ 1.10+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.00
William Hil
6.00
Superbet
5.50
1xBet
5.45
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.3%
@ 2.62+0.9%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.44-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.80
Superbet
2.62
Unibet
2.60
1xBet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.41
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.1%
@ 9.23-2.9%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.03+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.90
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.3%
@ 1.60-5.6%
Under
47.7%
@ 2.20+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.30
Pinnacle
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Unibet
2.10
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.1%
@ 3.85-11.0%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.22+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.3%
@ 8.95-7.1%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.03+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.40
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lokomotiv Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.90
1.00
0.87
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.17
0.67
2.67
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (24)
1.00
0.58
1.08
0.42
0.92
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (CSKA Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSKA Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
1.07
0.40
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.54
0.50
0.67
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.18
0.41
1.44
0.22
0.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSKA Sofia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
98.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
Under 5.5
97.0%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
BetVictor
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
+6.9%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+7.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
94.4%
1.11
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
-
+9.9%
Home under 2.5 goals
94.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
+4.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.9%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
Away +2 handicap
92.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.2%
Under 4.5
91.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
888Sport
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
+10.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
1.10
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
+5.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.22
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
-
-
+11.0%
Away under 2.5 goals
82.8%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
+14.1%
Over 2.5 cards
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
81.6%
1.34
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
-
+13.0%
Under 3.5
80.1%
1.40
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
888Sport
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+14.0%
Home under 1.5 goals
78.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
+4.6%
Draw or Away
78.2%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
888Sport
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
-3.4%
Away +1 handicap
78.2%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
-
-
+2.1%
Under 25.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.9%
1.11
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
-7.5%
Home +2 handicap
75.4%
1.44
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
-
+12.9%
Under 10.5 corners
72.2%
1.58
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.60
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
+13.8%
Home or Away
70.5%
1.21
888Sport
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
-6.4%
Under 5.5 cards
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lokomotiv Sofia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ante Aralitsa43%
Messie Biatoumoussoka33%
Octávio25%
Caue Caruzo Alves25%
Spas Delev23%
Dominik Yankov22%
Ryan Bidounga22%
Adil Taoui20%
Erol Dost19%
Bozhidar Katsarov12%
Patrik-Gabriel Galchev11%
Krasimir Stanoev10%
Simeon Slavchev0%
Donaldo Açka0%
Reyan Daskalov0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Mitko Mitkov0%
Aleksandar Lyubenov0%
Krasimir Miloshev0%
Dzhuneyt Ali0%
Angel Lyaskov0%
Jordon Ibe0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Diego Raposo0%
Nikola Neychev0%
Luann0%
Sadio Dembélé0%
Kristian Chachev0%
Ivan Lagundžić0%
Gerov Emil0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Reyan Daskalov40%
Adil Taoui40%
Ryan Bidounga33%
Ivan Lagundžić33%
Bozhidar Katsarov29%
Donaldo Açka25%
Mitko Mitkov25%
Kristian Chachev25%
Dominik Yankov22%
Ante Aralitsa21%
Sadio Dembélé21%
Jordon Ibe17%
Angel Lyaskov16%
Krasimir Stanoev15%
Caue Caruzo Alves15%
Patrik-Gabriel Galchev11%
Nikola Neychev10%
Erol Dost10%
Dzhuneyt Ali8%
Martin Velichkov6%
Luann6%
Spas Delev5%
Simeon Slavchev0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Aleksandar Lyubenov0%
Krasimir Miloshev0%
Octávio0%
Diego Raposo0%
Messie Biatoumoussoka0%
Gerov Emil0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Spas Delev23%
Krasimir Stanoev15%
Aleksandar Lyubenov14%
Krasimir Miloshev14%
Ante Aralitsa14%
Dominik Yankov11%
Patrik-Gabriel Galchev11%
Caue Caruzo Alves10%
Erol Dost10%
Dzhuneyt Ali8%
Ryan Bidounga6%
Simeon Slavchev0%
Donaldo Açka0%
Reyan Daskalov0%
Bozhidar Katsarov0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Mitko Mitkov0%
Angel Lyaskov0%
Jordon Ibe0%
Adil Taoui0%
Octávio0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Diego Raposo0%
Messie Biatoumoussoka0%
Nikola Neychev0%
Luann0%
Sadio Dembélé0%
Kristian Chachev0%
Ivan Lagundžić0%
Gerov Emil0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Spas Delev41%
Ante Aralitsa29%
Caue Caruzo Alves15%
Krasimir Stanoev10%
Ryan Bidounga6%
Dominik Yankov0%
Simeon Slavchev0%
Donaldo Açka0%
Reyan Daskalov0%
Bozhidar Katsarov0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Mitko Mitkov0%
Aleksandar Lyubenov0%
Krasimir Miloshev0%
Dzhuneyt Ali0%
Angel Lyaskov0%
Jordon Ibe0%
Adil Taoui0%
Octávio0%
Erol Dost0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Diego Raposo0%
Messie Biatoumoussoka0%
Patrik-Gabriel Galchev0%
Nikola Neychev0%
Luann0%
Sadio Dembélé0%
Kristian Chachev0%
Ivan Lagundžić0%
Gerov Emil0%
CSKA Sofia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Leandro Godoy35%
Alejandro Piedrahita20%
Max Ebong18%
Ioannis Pittas18%
Léo Pereira18%
James Eto'o14%
Olaus Jair Skarsem11%
Bruno Jordão7%
Mohamed Brahimi7%
Adrián Lapeña7%
Petko Panayotov6%
Lumbardh Dellova5%
Ángelo Martino0%
Facundo Rodríguez0%
Ivan Turitsov0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Thibaut Vion0%
Ivan Tasev0%
Gustavo Busatto0%
Ilian Iliev0%
David Seger0%
Isaac Solet0%
Pastor0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Teodor Ivanov0%
Kevin Dodaj0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bruno Jordão36%
Ángelo Martino35%
Adrián Lapeña29%
Léo Pereira27%
David Seger25%
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski25%
James Eto'o24%
Olaus Jair Skarsem22%
Mohamed Brahimi21%
Lumbardh Dellova21%
Max Ebong18%
Leandro Godoy18%
Facundo Rodríguez17%
Alejandro Piedrahita10%
Ivan Turitsov8%
Ilian Iliev7%
Petko Panayotov6%
Fedor Lapoukhov6%
Ioannis Pittas5%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Thibaut Vion0%
Ivan Tasev0%
Gustavo Busatto0%
Isaac Solet0%
Pastor0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Teodor Ivanov0%
Kevin Dodaj0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
James Eto'o33%
Ivan Tasev25%
Pastor11%
Isaac Solet10%
Léo Pereira9%
Ivan Turitsov8%
Mohamed Brahimi7%
Leandro Godoy6%
Petko Panayotov6%
Bruno Jordão0%
Ángelo Martino0%
Facundo Rodríguez0%
Max Ebong0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Lumbardh Dellova0%
Ioannis Pittas0%
Thibaut Vion0%
Olaus Jair Skarsem0%
Gustavo Busatto0%
Ilian Iliev0%
Adrián Lapeña0%
David Seger0%
Alejandro Piedrahita0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Teodor Ivanov0%
Kevin Dodaj0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ioannis Pittas41%
Leandro Godoy35%
Ivan Tasev25%
James Eto'o19%
Petko Panayotov12%
Isaac Solet10%
Léo Pereira9%
Bruno Jordão7%
Mohamed Brahimi7%
Lumbardh Dellova5%
Ángelo Martino0%
Facundo Rodríguez0%
Max Ebong0%
Ivan Turitsov0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Thibaut Vion0%
Olaus Jair Skarsem0%
Gustavo Busatto0%
Ilian Iliev0%
Adrián Lapeña0%
David Seger0%
Pastor0%
Alejandro Piedrahita0%
Fedor Lapoukhov0%
Georgi Brankov Chorbadzhiyski0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Teodor Ivanov0%
Kevin Dodaj0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Lokomotiv Sofia's squad is €18m less valuable than CSKA Sofia's (€8m vs €26m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Lokomotiv Sofia's attack is €7m less valuable than CSKA Sofia's (€3m vs €10m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Lokomotiv Sofia's midfield is €4m less valuable than CSKA Sofia's (€2m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Lokomotiv Sofia's defence is €7m less valuable than CSKA Sofia's (€3m vs €10m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Levski Sofia
Ludogorets
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Plovdiv