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Lokomotiv Sofia vs Levski Sofia Result & Analysis

Date: 25/07/2026
Time: 18:15
Final 1-2
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
Vs
27%
29%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
Bulgaria: First League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Lokomotiv Sofia a 27% win probability against Levski Sofia in the Bulgaria: First League on 2026-07-25, with 29% for the draw and 44% for Levski Sofia. The model estimates around 2.5 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (75%), Over 1.5 (73%).

Results analysis

Lokomotiv Sofia finished 1-2 against Levski Sofia (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 27% home win, 29% draw and 44% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (75%), Over 1.5 (73%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lokomotiv Sofia win✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia win✓ Hit
43.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W23L11D30W22D22D11D20W03L11DH·BER09/04A·BOT14/04H·SEP27/04A·DOB01/05H·BOT05/05A·MON09/05H·BER14/05H·SLA18/05A·SPA22/05A·BOT21/07
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.471.471.131.531.80
vs Stronger (8)1.001.750.501.251.502.25
vs Similar (22)1.681.361.821.091.551.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Levski SofiaLevski Sofia

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D31W10W01L11D20W00D21W10WH·ARD09/04A·CSK13/04A·CSK25/04H·CSK02/05H·LUD09/05A·LUD13/05H·CSK16/05A·CSK25/05H·DUN17/07H·UNI22/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.970.732.200.601.730.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.000.750.750.501.251.00
vs Weaker (22)2.320.732.730.641.910.82
Clean sheet %40% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.2%
Under 2.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.7%
No
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
10.3%
0-0
9.3%
1-2 ✓
9.0%
0-2
8.3%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
6.8%
2-2
4.9%
Lokomotiv Sofia goals ↓
Levski Sofia goals →
01234
09.3%10%8.3%4.0%1.4%
17.5%14%9.0%4.3%1.5%
24.7%6.8%4.9%2.3%0.8%
31.7%2.5%1.8%0.8%0.3%
40.5%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lokomotiv Sofia goals (down), columns = Levski Sofia goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Levski Sofia
2.25
CSKA 1948
1.86
Ludogorets
1.84
CSKA Sofia
1.75
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.56
Cherno More Varna
1.50
Arda Kardzhali
1.50
Botev Vratsa
1.43
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.27
Slavia Sofia
1.24
Botev Plovdiv
1.23
Dunav Ruse
1.14
Septemvri Sofia
1.03
Spartak Varna
1.00
Lokomotiv Sofia is 0.98 points worse than Levski Sofia in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 2.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
1.97
Ludogorets
1.65
CSKA 1948
1.50
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.38
CSKA Sofia
1.31
Botev Plovdiv
1.29
Arda Kardzhali
1.17
Slavia Sofia
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.11
Dunav Ruse
1.01
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.97
Spartak Varna
0.95
Septemvri Sofia
0.89
Lokomotiv Sofia is 0.59 goals worse than Levski Sofia in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.97).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ludogorets
0.68
Levski Sofia
0.69
CSKA Sofia
0.83
Botev Vratsa
0.86
Cherno More Varna
0.94
Arda Kardzhali
0.94
CSKA 1948
0.97
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.03
Slavia Sofia
1.19
Botev Plovdiv
1.29
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.30
Dunav Ruse
1.35
Spartak Varna
1.54
Septemvri Sofia
1.71
Lokomotiv Sofia is 0.60 goals worse than Levski Sofia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.30 vs 0.69).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
65%
Ludogorets
64%
CSKA Sofia
58%
Arda Kardzhali
52%
CSKA 1948
52%
Cherno More Varna
52%
Lokomotiv Sofia
51%
Botev Plovdiv
51%
Septemvri Sofia
47%
Botev Vratsa
47%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
45%
Slavia Sofia
44%
Spartak Varna
40%
Lokomotiv Sofia is 14.4 percentage points worse than Levski Sofia in terms of average possession (51% vs 65%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia

For 5.1 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.5

🚩 Corners

13076838455571811472121381191089593A·SPAH·BERA·DOBH·SEPA·CSKH·SEPH·SLAA·CSKH·DOBA·LEV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.5

🟨 Cards

7012342221123221121213743352233A·SPAH·BERA·DOBH·SEPA·CSKH·SEPH·SLAA·CSKH·DOBA·LEV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 9.0 · Total 20.4

⚠️ Fouls

310145681714101091610596138151011819143120251515212519A·SPAH·BERA·DOBH·SEPA·CSKH·SEPH·SLAA·CSKH·DOBA·LEV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Levski SofiaLevski Sofia

For 6.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 9.3

🚩 Corners

1605572651429264215161821091116111036710A·CSKA·DOBH·CHEA·BERH·LOKA·LUDH·LOKA·CSKH·BOTH·BOT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.8

🟨 Cards

10011312313225512311124544103321A·CSKA·DOBH·CHEA·BERH·LOKA·LUDH·LOKA·CSKH·BOTH·BOT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 12.3 · Total 22.5

⚠️ Fouls

370101613771013144142017811131310134826201727183719262312A·CSKA·DOBH·CHEA·BERH·LOKA·LUDH·LOKA·CSKH·BOTH·BOT
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.29.39.12.42.22.522.421.123.9
vs Stronger (15)8.19.07.61.80.92.623.223.723.0
vs Similar (34)9.79.69.92.62.72.522.120.424.4
vs Weaker (1)7.07.0-3.03.0-21.021.0-
% over line37%25%50%30%27%33%53%44%64%
% under line63%75%50%70%73%67%47%56%36%
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Levski SofiaLevski Sofia

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.49.49.52.73.22.224.123.125.4
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (18)9.510.09.03.63.93.127.728.027.3
vs Weaker (32)9.49.39.62.22.71.823.021.824.6
% over line52%57%45%34%38%29%64%57%73%
% under line48%43%55%66%62%71%36%43%27%
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.4
Botev Plovdiv
10.2
CSKA Sofia
10.2
Spartak Varna
10.1
Levski Sofia
9.6
Ludogorets
9.5
Botev Vratsa
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.3
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Septemvri Sofia
8.9
Arda Kardzhali
8.6
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
4.9
Spartak Varna
4.9
Botev Vratsa
4.8
Cherno More Varna
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.7
Ludogorets
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.7
Slavia Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.1
Levski Sofia
24.7
Botev Vratsa
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.1
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.9
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Spartak Varna
23.0
Septemvri Sofia
22.9
CSKA 1948
22.9
Ludogorets
22.4
CSKA Sofia
22.4
Botev Plovdiv
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.7%
Under 9.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.7%
Under 3.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
59.0%
Under 21.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
BP (52)
€20m
AK (20)
€10m
CMV (22)
€6m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
BP (20)
€7m
AK (7)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
BP (11)
€4m
AK (3)
€3m
CMV (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
BP (21)
€8m
AK (10)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Levski Sofia · H/A from LS
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/26ALevski Sofia Vs LS4-3
14/09/25HLS Vs Levski Sofia1-2
23/11/24ALevski Sofia Vs LS2-0
20/07/24HLS Vs Levski Sofia1-6
27/11/23HLS Vs Levski Sofia2-2
30/07/23ALevski Sofia Vs LS6-0
08/04/23ALevski Sofia Vs LS1-0
10/09/22HLS Vs Levski Sofia3-2

Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/07/26ABotev Plovdiv Vs LS1-1
22/05/26ASpartak Varna Vs LS3-0
18/05/26HLS Vs Slavia Sofia2-0
14/05/26HLS Vs Beroe1-1
09/05/26AMontana Vs LS2-2
05/05/26HLS Vs Botev Vratsa2-2
01/05/26ADobrudzha Vs LS0-3
27/04/26HLS Vs Septemvri Sofia1-1
14/04/26ABotev Vratsa Vs LS3-2
09/04/26HLS Vs Beroe2-1

Levski SofiaLevski Sofia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/07/26HLS Vs Universitatea Craiova1-0
17/07/26HLS Vs Dunav Ruse2-1
25/05/26ACSKA 1948 Vs LS0-0
16/05/26HLS Vs CSKA Sofia2-0
13/05/26ALudogorets Vs LS1-1
09/05/26HLS Vs Ludogorets0-1
02/05/26HLS Vs CSKA 19481-0
25/04/26ACSKA Sofia Vs LS1-3
13/04/26ACSKA Sofia Vs LS1-1
09/04/26HLS Vs Arda Kardzhali1-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
Bulgaria: First League
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLD1.44
HomeWDDDW1.77
AwayLWDLD1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%46%25%
AVG goals2.662.652.67
Over 1.5 %78%85%71%
Over 2.5 %52%58%46%
Over 3.5 %28%23%33%
Scored1.441.691.17
Conceded1.220.961.50
BTTS54%62%46%
Clean Sheet28%31%25%
Corners9.209.319.07
Cards3.813.564.07
Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
Bulgaria: First League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWW2.08
HomeWLWWW2.35
AwayDDWDD1.79
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%73%50%
AVG goals2.402.462.33
Over 1.5 %62%62%62%
Over 2.5 %46%46%46%
Over 3.5 %26%23%29%
Scored1.701.881.50
Conceded0.700.580.83
BTTS38%31%46%
Clean Sheet48%58%38%
Corners9.449.439.45
Cards4.695.124.15

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LudogoretsLudogorets515
100%
3.0
103+7
2.6
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
46
276132.00.6
64%
2CSKA SofiaCSKA Sofia513
80%
2.6
133+10
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
26
106102.60.6
58%
3CSKA 1948CSKA 1948412
100%
3.0
114+7
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
52%
4Levski SofiaLevski Sofia412
100%
3.0
92+7
2.8
100%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
38
118192.20.5
65%
5Arda KardzhaliArda Kardzhali510
60%
2.0
84+4
2.4
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
4.0
100%
-
0%
10
3331.60.8
52%
6Botev PlovdivBotev Plovdiv57
40%
1.4
78-1
3.0
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
20
7481.41.6
51%
7Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna46
50%
1.5
64+2
2.5
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
5.0
100%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
40%
8Slavia SofiaSlavia Sofia45
25%
1.2
42+2
1.5
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.5
44%
9Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia54
20%
0.8
39-6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
5.0
100%
-
0%
0
0000.61.8
47%
10Lokomotiv PlovdivLokomotiv Plovdiv53
20%
0.6
37-4
2.0
60%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
45%
11Dunav RuseDunav Ruse53
20%
0.6
49-5
2.6
100%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
12Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Sofia52
0%
0.4
510-5
3.0
100%
60%
40%
-
0%
4.0
100%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
51%
13Cherno More VarnaCherno More Varna51
0%
0.2
412-8
3.2
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3120.82.4
52%
14Botev VratsaBotev Vratsa51
0%
0.2
313-10
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.6
47%
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →

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