The model favours an away win, with Ludogorets projected to triumph 61% of the time, a draw 23%, and Lokomotiv Sofia only 16%. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, yet the most probable total is 2 goals, a 25% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.1% probability. Lokomotiv Sofia, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.67 conceded, while Ludogorets, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.12 scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Under 7.5 at 99.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.7%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7%, Under 6.5 at 97.3% with a 2% edge, Away +2 handicap at 94.7% with a 2% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.4% with a 5% edge, and Home under 2.5 goals at 93.8% with a 2% edge. Lokomotiv Sofia have struggled recently with two straight defeats, while Ludogorets remain unbeaten in five games.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lokomotiv Sofia win
16.6%
Avg Implied 16.9% · @ 5.44
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
1xBet
5.80
Bet365
5.75
BetVictor
5.75
Draw
24.0%
Avg Implied 23.1% · @ 3.97
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Dafabet
4.10
Pinnacle
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Ludogorets win
59.4%
Avg Implied 60.0% · @ 1.53
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Dafabet
1.54
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lokomotiv Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.57
1.50
1.29
1.56
1.81
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
2.83
1.00
2.67
1.67
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.58
1.25
1.64
0.91
1.54
1.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.77
1.41
0.59
1.46
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.60
1.50
0.33
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.65
0.85
1.36
0.73
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.1%
@ 1.24+3.4%
Under 1.5
21.9%
@ 3.65-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Under
Unibet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.66
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.2%
@ 1.81+1.4%
Under 2.5
46.8%
@ 1.94-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.82
SBO
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Under
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.0%
@ 2.97-0.2%
Under 3.5
69.0%
@ 1.34+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.10
Pinnacle
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.92
1xBet
2.92
Under
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Both teams to score
Yes
51.9%
@ 1.84+1.9%
No
48.1%
@ 1.84-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.85
No
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Unibet
1.84
BetVictor
1.83
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%@ 7.07+5.3%
0-2
10.8%@ 6.79+4.4%
0-1
10.4%@ 6.33+3.4%
1-2
9.9%@ 7.28+3.9%
0-0
7.1%@ 10.54+2.9%
0-3
6.8%@ 10.40+2.6%
1-3
6.2%@ 11.37+2.4%
2-1
4.8%@ 15.37+1.9%
Lokomotiv Sofia goals ↓
Ludogorets goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
10%
11%
6.8%
3.2%
1
4.5%
11%
9.9%
6.2%
3.0%
2
2.5%
4.8%
4.5%
2.9%
1.4%
3
0.8%
1.5%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lokomotiv Sofia goals (down), columns = Ludogorets goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Lokomotiv Sofia is 1.93 points worse than Ludogorets in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 2.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Lokomotiv Sofia is 0.55 goals worse than Ludogorets in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Lokomotiv Sofia is 1.29 goals worse than Ludogorets in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lokomotiv Sofia
For 5.1 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 9.0 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ludogorets
For 6.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lokomotiv Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.2
9.1
2.4
1.9
2.8
22.5
20.9
23.9
vs Stronger (12)
6.5
8.0
6.0
0.8
0.1
2.0
22.8
26.0
21.7
vs Similar (38)
9.6
9.3
9.9
2.9
2.8
3.0
22.4
20.5
24.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
37%
23%
50%
32%
24%
40%
52%
38%
64%
% under line
63%
77%
50%
68%
76%
60%
48%
62%
36%
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.5
8.8
3.2
3.2
3.2
22.9
23.1
22.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
8.3
8.6
8.0
4.3
4.4
4.2
25.0
26.0
23.8
vs Weaker (32)
10.8
12.2
9.4
2.6
2.5
2.7
21.2
20.6
21.8
% over line
45%
60%
29%
44%
42%
46%
62%
60%
64%
% under line
55%
40%
71%
56%
58%
54%
38%
40%
36%
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.6
Botev Plovdiv
10.1
Spartak Varna
10.0
CSKA Sofia
9.6
Levski Sofia
9.5
CSKA 1948
9.4
Ludogorets
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.4
Botev Vratsa
9.4
Septemvri Sofia
9.1
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Arda Kardzhali
8.7
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
5.0
Botev Vratsa
4.8
Spartak Varna
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Ludogorets
4.8
Cherno More Varna
4.7
Slavia Sofia
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
Dunav Ruse
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.0
Botev Vratsa
24.7
Levski Sofia
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.4
Slavia Sofia
23.9
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.9
Septemvri Sofia
22.8
CSKA 1948
22.7
Spartak Varna
22.7
CSKA Sofia
22.6
Botev Plovdiv
22.4
Ludogorets
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
41.7%
@ 1.86-8.2%
Under 9.5
58.3%
@ 1.85+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathonbet
1.86
Unibet
1.80
Under
Unibet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.5%
Under 3.5
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
50.9%
Under 21.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lokomotiv Sofia or Draw
40.6%
Avg Implied 39.7% · @ 2.34
Edge
+1.0%
17%
24%
59%
covers Lokomotiv Sofia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.42
BetVictor
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Lokomotiv Sofia or Ludogorets
76.0%
Avg Implied 77.3% · @ 1.20
Edge
-1.3%
17%
24%
59%
covers Lokomotiv Sofia + Ludogorets
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Draw or Ludogorets
83.4%
Avg Implied 83.1% · @ 1.12
Edge
+0.3%
17%
24%
59%
covers Draw + Ludogorets
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
Superbet
1.12
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 0.5
Over
59.9%
@ 1.61+2.3%
Under
40.1%
@ 2.18-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Under
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 1.5
Over
23.2%
@ 4.07+0.5%
Under
76.8%
@ 1.20-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
BetVictor
4.20
Pinnacle
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 2.5
Over
6.5%
@ 11.03-2.1%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.03+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
11.20
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
@ 41.00-98.6%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 0.5
Over
85.0%
@ 1.11+2.0%
Under
15.0%
@ 5.43-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Under
1xBet
5.85
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Ludogorets over/under 1.5
Over
56.5%
@ 1.64+0.0%
Under
43.5%
@ 2.13-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Under
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.14
Ludogorets over/under 2.5
Over
29.5%
@ 3.04-0.9%
Under
70.5%
@ 1.33+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.14
BetVictor
3.10
1xBet
3.04
Marathonbet
3.04
Under
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Ludogorets over/under 3.5
Over
12.4%
@ 5.88-3.5%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.11+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.00
Betano
5.80
1xBet
4.70
Under
1xBet
1.14
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lokomotiv Sofia, so a minus line means Lokomotiv Sofia give that many goals of a start and Ludogorets receive them. At -1, Lokomotiv Sofia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lokomotiv Sofia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lokomotiv Sofia)
Lokomotiv Sofia -2
1.5%
@ 34.00-1.3%
Draw -2
4.3%
@ 17.00-1.2%
Ludogorets +2
94.2%
@ 1.03+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
34.00
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Away
Bet365
1.03
Handicap -1 (Lokomotiv Sofia)
Lokomotiv Sofia -1
5.8%
@ 10.87-2.3%
Draw -1
10.8%
@ 6.32-3.0%
Ludogorets +1
83.4%
@ 1.12+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
12.00
Marathonbet
7.60
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.45
Away
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap +1 (Lokomotiv Sofia)
Lokomotiv Sofia +1
40.6%
@ 2.37+2.8%
Draw +1
23.6%
@ 3.51-2.0%
Ludogorets -1
35.8%
@ 2.45-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Betfair
2.30
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Unibet
3.30
Away
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.45
Unibet
2.35
Handicap +2 (Lokomotiv Sofia)
Lokomotiv Sofia +2
64.2%
@ 1.47+3.2%
Draw +2
18.6%
@ 4.47-1.4%
Ludogorets -2
17.2%
@ 4.71-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.49
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Draw
Marathonbet
4.70
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.20
Away
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Unibet
4.35
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lokomotiv Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.57
0.43
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.67
0.64
0.55
0.54
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.40
0.71
0.29
0.38
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.50
0.67
0.17
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.65
0.35
0.73
0.36
0.56
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.3%
@ 1.34+1.0%
Under 0.5
29.7%
@ 3.02-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.20
William Hil
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
Superbet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.5%
@ 2.60-2.1%
Under 1.5
66.5%
@ 1.44+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.75
Betano
2.72
Betfair
2.63
1xBet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Under
Unibet
1.47
Superbet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Betfair
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.4%
@ 6.41-0.1%
Under 2.5
85.6%
@ 1.08+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
William Hil
6.50
1xBet
6.45
Marathonbet
6.45
Under
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.5%
@ 2.85+2.0%
Under
65.5%
@ 1.37-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.05
Marathonbet
2.84
Superbet
2.82
Betano
2.82
1xBet
2.80
Under
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.8%
@ 10.48-1.0%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.02+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
11.20
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.8%
@ 1.63-2.1%
Under
45.2%
@ 2.15+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
Superbet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
Under
Unibet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.18
1xBet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
Ludogorets over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.1%
@ 4.15-4.3%
Under
81.9%
@ 1.19+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.30
Betano
4.15
1xBet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Ludogorets over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.7%
@ 9.20-5.3%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.03+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
1xBet
8.90
Under
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lokomotiv Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.90
0.93
0.86
0.94
0.94
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.17
0.67
2.67
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (24)
1.00
0.58
1.00
0.36
1.00
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.37
0.71
0.29
1.08
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.10
0.83
0.17
0.25
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.00
0.50
0.64
0.36
1.44
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.9%
@ 1.21+3.1%
Under 0.5
20.1%
@ 3.98-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.18
Under
Betano
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.3%
@ 2.01+3.1%
Under 1.5
50.7%
@ 1.73-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Under
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.7%
@ 4.21-0.4%
Under 2.5
78.3%
@ 1.19+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
William Hil
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Under
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.9%
@ 2.35+4.6%
Under
56.1%
@ 1.52-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.40
1xBet
2.36
Superbet
2.35
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.49
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.2%
@ 8.40-0.9%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.04+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.70
1xBet
8.60
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Lokomotiv Sofia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
@ 12.50-5.4%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Ludogorets over/under 0.5 2H
Over
63.0%
@ 1.44-1.3%
Under
37.0%
@ 2.61+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.43
Under
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Ludogorets over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.8%
@ 3.03-2.7%
Under
72.2%
@ 1.33+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.00
Betano
2.95
Under
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Ludogorets over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.2%
@ 7.30-5.5%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.06+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.90
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
Under 6.5
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.1%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.3%
Away +2 handicap
94.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
Home under 2.5 goals
93.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+2.1%
Under 5.5
93.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
+2.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
+5.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.2%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.8%
1.04
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
+0.9%
Away under 3.5 goals
87.6%
1.11
1xBet
1.14
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
-
+3.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.6%
1.08
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
+0.1%
Away over 0.5 goals
85.0%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
+2.0%
Under 4.5
84.6%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.11
+0.9%
Over 2.5 cards
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
83.4%
1.12
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
Superbet
1.12
+0.3%
Away +1 handicap
83.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
-
+5.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
81.9%
1.19
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
+4.3%
Under 11.5 corners
80.0%
1.30
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.26
-
-
-
+10.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.9%
1.21
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.18
+3.1%
Under 25.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.19
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.16
+0.4%
Over 1.5
78.1%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
+3.4%
Home under 1.5 goals
76.8%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
-0.5%
Home or Away
76.0%
1.20
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
-1.3%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.2%
1.33
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
-
-
+2.7%
Away under 2.5 goals
70.5%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
+0.9%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.3%
1.34
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
+1.0%
Under 10.5 corners
70.2%
1.51
Unibet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.47
-
-
+9.5%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lokomotiv Sofia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ante Aralitsa43%
Messie Biatoumoussoka33%
Octávio25%
Caue Caruzo Alves25%
Spas Delev23%
Dominik Yankov22%
Ryan Bidounga22%
Adil Taoui20%
Erol Dost19%
Bozhidar Katsarov12%
Patrik-Gabriel Galchev11%
Krasimir Stanoev10%
Simeon Slavchev0%
Donaldo Açka0%
Reyan Daskalov0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Mitko Mitkov0%
Aleksandar Lyubenov0%
Krasimir Miloshev0%
Dzhuneyt Ali0%
Angel Lyaskov0%
Jordon Ibe0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Diego Raposo0%
Nikola Neychev0%
Luann0%
Sadio Dembélé0%
Kristian Chachev0%
Ivan Lagundžić0%
Gerov Emil0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Reyan Daskalov40%
Adil Taoui40%
Ryan Bidounga33%
Ivan Lagundžić33%
Bozhidar Katsarov29%
Donaldo Açka25%
Mitko Mitkov25%
Kristian Chachev25%
Dominik Yankov22%
Ante Aralitsa21%
Sadio Dembélé21%
Jordon Ibe17%
Angel Lyaskov16%
Krasimir Stanoev15%
Caue Caruzo Alves15%
Patrik-Gabriel Galchev11%
Nikola Neychev10%
Erol Dost10%
Dzhuneyt Ali8%
Martin Velichkov6%
Luann6%
Spas Delev5%
Simeon Slavchev0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Aleksandar Lyubenov0%
Krasimir Miloshev0%
Octávio0%
Diego Raposo0%
Messie Biatoumoussoka0%
Gerov Emil0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Spas Delev23%
Krasimir Stanoev15%
Aleksandar Lyubenov14%
Krasimir Miloshev14%
Ante Aralitsa14%
Dominik Yankov11%
Patrik-Gabriel Galchev11%
Caue Caruzo Alves10%
Erol Dost10%
Dzhuneyt Ali8%
Ryan Bidounga6%
Simeon Slavchev0%
Donaldo Açka0%
Reyan Daskalov0%
Bozhidar Katsarov0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Mitko Mitkov0%
Angel Lyaskov0%
Jordon Ibe0%
Adil Taoui0%
Octávio0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Diego Raposo0%
Messie Biatoumoussoka0%
Nikola Neychev0%
Luann0%
Sadio Dembélé0%
Kristian Chachev0%
Ivan Lagundžić0%
Gerov Emil0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Spas Delev41%
Ante Aralitsa29%
Caue Caruzo Alves15%
Krasimir Stanoev10%
Ryan Bidounga6%
Dominik Yankov0%
Simeon Slavchev0%
Donaldo Açka0%
Reyan Daskalov0%
Bozhidar Katsarov0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Mitko Mitkov0%
Aleksandar Lyubenov0%
Krasimir Miloshev0%
Dzhuneyt Ali0%
Angel Lyaskov0%
Jordon Ibe0%
Adil Taoui0%
Octávio0%
Erol Dost0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Diego Raposo0%
Messie Biatoumoussoka0%
Patrik-Gabriel Galchev0%
Nikola Neychev0%
Luann0%
Sadio Dembélé0%
Kristian Chachev0%
Ivan Lagundžić0%
Gerov Emil0%
Ludogorets · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kwadwo Duah47%
Petar Stanić36%
Ivajlo Chochev34%
Emerson Rodríguez20%
Yves Erick Bile20%
Rwan Cruz18%
Erick Marcus13%
Ivan Yordanov11%
Olivier Verdon11%
Son10%
Idan Nachmias8%
Stanislav Ivanov7%
Joel Andersson5%
Bernard Tekpetey4%
Caio Vidal4%
Dinis Almeida4%
Deroy Duarte3%
Anton Nedyalkov0%
Pedro Naressi0%
Mounir Chouiar0%
Hendrik Bonmann0%
Sergio Padt0%
Edvin Kurtulus0%
Filip Kaloč0%
Filip Gigov0%
Simeon Shishkov0%
Vinicius Nogueira0%
Matheus Machado Ferreira0%
Alberto Salido0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Edvin Kurtulus30%
Dinis Almeida27%
Pedro Naressi24%
Anton Nedyalkov23%
Idan Nachmias23%
Simeon Shishkov20%
Filip Kaloč19%
Vinicius Nogueira18%
Mounir Chouiar17%
Olivier Verdon14%
Erick Marcus13%
Bernard Tekpetey12%
Caio Vidal12%
Yves Erick Bile10%
Deroy Duarte9%
Rwan Cruz9%
Hendrik Bonmann8%
Son7%
Stanislav Ivanov7%
Petar Stanić6%
Kwadwo Duah6%
Ivajlo Chochev6%
Joel Andersson5%
Sergio Padt0%
Ivan Yordanov0%
Emerson Rodríguez0%
Filip Gigov0%
Matheus Machado Ferreira0%
Alberto Salido0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Petar Stanić21%
Emerson Rodríguez20%
Mounir Chouiar17%
Bernard Tekpetey17%
Erick Marcus13%
Caio Vidal12%
Vinicius Nogueira9%
Dinis Almeida8%
Pedro Naressi7%
Son7%
Anton Nedyalkov7%
Stanislav Ivanov7%
Kwadwo Duah6%
Ivajlo Chochev6%
Joel Andersson5%
Olivier Verdon4%
Deroy Duarte3%
Hendrik Bonmann0%
Sergio Padt0%
Edvin Kurtulus0%
Filip Kaloč0%
Ivan Yordanov0%
Idan Nachmias0%
Rwan Cruz0%
Filip Gigov0%
Simeon Shishkov0%
Matheus Machado Ferreira0%
Yves Erick Bile0%
Alberto Salido0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Caio Vidal36%
Kwadwo Duah35%
Petar Stanić24%
Ivajlo Chochev23%
Rwan Cruz18%
Bernard Tekpetey12%
Yves Erick Bile10%
Erick Marcus10%
Son3%
Anton Nedyalkov0%
Olivier Verdon0%
Pedro Naressi0%
Stanislav Ivanov0%
Joel Andersson0%
Mounir Chouiar0%
Hendrik Bonmann0%
Dinis Almeida0%
Deroy Duarte0%
Sergio Padt0%
Edvin Kurtulus0%
Filip Kaloč0%
Ivan Yordanov0%
Idan Nachmias0%
Emerson Rodríguez0%
Filip Gigov0%
Simeon Shishkov0%
Vinicius Nogueira0%
Matheus Machado Ferreira0%
Alberto Salido0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Lokomotiv Sofia's squad is €38m less valuable than Ludogorets's (€8m vs €46m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Lokomotiv Sofia's attack is €24m less valuable than Ludogorets's (€3m vs €27m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Lokomotiv Sofia's midfield is €4m less valuable than Ludogorets's (€2m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Lokomotiv Sofia's defence is €10m less valuable than Ludogorets's (€3m vs €13m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Levski Sofia
CSKA Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Plovdiv