Pythia gives Lokomotiv a 64% win probability against Akhmat in the Russia: Premier League on 2026-07-26, with 22% for the draw and 13% for Akhmat. The model estimates around 2.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 2-0 the most likely scoreline (12.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 21.5 fouls (93%), Over 1.5 (78%).
Results analysis
Lokomotiv finished 1-1 against Akhmat (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 64% home win, 22% draw and 13% away win. Picks that landed: Over 21.5 fouls (93%), Over 1.5 (78%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lokomotiv win✗ Miss
64.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Akhmat win✗ Miss
13.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lokomotiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.30
2.00
0.93
1.60
1.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (10)
1.80
1.50
2.00
0.60
1.60
2.40
vs Weaker (16)
2.06
1.25
2.38
1.25
1.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Akhmat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akhmat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.30
1.33
0.93
1.00
1.67
vs Stronger (16)
0.81
1.50
0.88
1.00
0.75
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.57
1.07
1.86
0.86
1.29
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.5%
Under 2.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.2%
Under 3.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.3%
No
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.0%
1-0
11.0%
1-1 ✓
10.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
8.0%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
6.5%
4-0
4.0%
Lokomotiv goals ↓
Akhmat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
3.9%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.8%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.0%
6.5%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
4
4.0%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lokomotiv goals (down), columns = Akhmat goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zenit
2.27
FC Krasnodar
2.20
Lokomotiv
1.77
Spartak Moscow
1.73
CSKA Moscow
1.70
Baltika
1.53
Dynamo
1.50
Rubin
1.43
Akhmat
1.23
Rodina Moskva
1.14
FC Rostov
1.10
Fakel
1.10
Krylia Sovetov
1.07
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
FC Orenburg
0.97
Akron
0.94
Lokomotiv is 0.53 points better than Akhmat in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Krasnodar
2.00
Lokomotiv
1.80
Zenit
1.77
Dynamo
1.70
Spartak Moscow
1.57
CSKA Moscow
1.47
Baltika
1.27
Krylia Sovetov
1.17
Akhmat
1.17
Akron
1.16
Rodina Moskva
1.02
Fakel
0.98
FC Orenburg
0.97
Rubin
0.97
FC Rostov
0.83
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.69
Lokomotiv is 0.63 goals better than Akhmat in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Zenit
0.63
Baltika
0.70
FC Krasnodar
0.77
Rubin
1.00
FC Rostov
1.07
CSKA Moscow
1.10
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.16
Akhmat
1.30
Spartak Moscow
1.30
Lokomotiv
1.30
Dynamo
1.33
Rodina Moskva
1.43
FC Orenburg
1.47
Fakel
1.49
Krylia Sovetov
1.67
Akron
1.69
Lokomotiv and Akhmat are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Spartak Moscow
62%
FC Krasnodar
60%
Zenit
59%
CSKA Moscow
56%
Dynamo
54%
Lokomotiv
51%
FC Rostov
48%
FC Orenburg
47%
Baltika
46%
Krylia Sovetov
46%
Dinamo Makhachkala
46%
Akhmat
46%
Akron
45%
Rubin
43%
Lokomotiv is 5.4 percentage points better than Akhmat in terms of average possession (51% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lokomotiv
For 5.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 11.5 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Akhmat
For 4.3 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 16.2 · Total 30.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lokomotiv
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.1
9.7
4.3
4.3
4.4
26.7
27.6
25.9
vs Stronger (7)
7.7
6.0
9.3
5.1
6.7
4.0
24.3
31.3
19.0
vs Similar (15)
9.4
8.6
10.3
4.2
3.9
4.6
27.5
27.2
27.9
vs Weaker (28)
9.7
10.0
9.5
4.2
4.1
4.4
26.9
26.9
26.9
% over line
48%
44%
52%
50%
48%
52%
86%
84%
88%
% under line
52%
56%
48%
50%
52%
48%
14%
16%
12%
This opponent (Akhmat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Akhmat
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.8
8.6
4.7
4.6
4.7
29.7
29.4
30.0
vs Stronger (24)
9.9
11.0
8.5
4.4
4.5
4.3
30.2
29.7
30.7
vs Similar (26)
9.5
10.5
8.6
5.0
4.8
5.1
29.2
29.0
29.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
49%
64%
33%
68%
68%
68%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
51%
36%
67%
32%
32%
32%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Lokomotiv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
16.0
FC Orenburg
11.1
Dynamo
10.3
CSKA Moscow
10.1
Akhmat
9.7
Akron
9.5
Zenit
9.5
Krylia Sovetov
9.5
Lokomotiv
9.3
Spartak Moscow
9.2
Dinamo Makhachkala
9.1
Rubin
9.1
Fakel
9.0
FC Krasnodar
8.6
FC Rostov
8.5
Baltika
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spartak Moscow
5.4
Rubin
5.0
Baltika
4.9
Akhmat
4.8
FC Krasnodar
4.8
FC Rostov
4.8
CSKA Moscow
4.8
Fakel
4.7
FC Orenburg
4.7
Krylia Sovetov
4.6
Lokomotiv
4.5
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.4
Dynamo
4.3
Zenit
4.3
Akron
4.0
Rodina Moskva
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Baltika
30.7
Spartak Moscow
30.4
Akhmat
29.6
Dinamo Makhachkala
29.4
FC Rostov
29.2
Rubin
29.0
Fakel
28.7
FC Krasnodar
28.5
FC Orenburg
27.5
Dynamo
27.1
Lokomotiv
26.9
Zenit
26.9
Akron
26.6
CSKA Moscow
26.1
Krylia Sovetov
25.0
Rodina Moskva
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
40.4%
Under 9.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
66.8%
Under 3.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
93.0%
Under 21.5
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🔢 6. Odd / Even
🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 8. Handicap
🔥 9. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 21.5 fouls
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
💰 10. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (35)
€204m
CM (35)
€137m
FK (31)
€125m
SM (26)
€119m
LOK (28)
€111m
DYN (33)
€111m
RUB (32)
€53m
FR (33)
€37m
BAL (34)
€36m
KS (32)
€32m
AKH (31)
€32m
AKR (31)
€30m
FO (42)
€25m
DM (30)
€23m
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
Lokomotiv's squad is €79m more valuable than Akhmat's (€111m vs €32m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (11)
€109m
FK (15)
€64m
SM (11)
€58m
LOK (9)
€53m
DYN (10)
€46m
CM (16)
€41m
RUB (10)
€18m
FR (14)
€17m
AKH (10)
€16m
KS (13)
€13m
AKR (11)
€11m
FO (15)
€10m
BAL (10)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
DM (11)
€6m
FAK (10)
€5m
Lokomotiv's attack is €37m more valuable than Akhmat's (€53m vs €16m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (7)
€52m
ZEN (6)
€44m
SM (4)
€29m
DYN (6)
€23m
FK (4)
€20m
LOK (7)
€18m
RUB (9)
€13m
BAL (10)
€13m
KS (6)
€8m
AKR (6)
€8m
FO (10)
€6m
DM (4)
€3m
RM (4)
€3m
AKH (6)
€3m
FR (4)
€3m
FAK (4)
€2m
Lokomotiv's midfield is €15m more valuable than Akhmat's (€18m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (18)
€51m
CM (12)
€44m
DYN (17)
€41m
FK (12)
€41m
LOK (12)
€41m
SM (11)
€32m
RUB (13)
€22m
FR (15)
€17m
BAL (14)
€16m
DM (15)
€13m
AKH (15)
€13m
KS (13)
€11m
AKR (14)
€11m
FO (17)
€9m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
Lokomotiv's defence is €28m more valuable than Akhmat's (€41m vs €13m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
Zenit
Spartak Moscow
Dinamo Makhachkala
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
FC Rostov
Rubin
FC Orenburg
Dynamo
Rodina Moskva
Krylia Sovetov
Akron
Fakel