Longford Town’s home form is the decisive factor in this First Division clash. The model gives the home side a 64% chance of victory, a draw 20%, and an away win 16%, so the most likely result is a Longford Town win. Their average of 2.3 goals scored and only one conceded at home against weaker opposition explains the high confidence, while Athlone Town’s away average of 1.25 scored and 2.25 conceded against stronger teams underlines their vulnerability on the road. The expected total is 3.5 goals, with the single most probable scoreline 2-1 for Longford, a 9.6% chance. The model also projects a 3-goal total with a 22% probability.
The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 (97.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Home +2 handicap (93.8%), Under 6.5 (93.3%), Home over 0.5 goals (90.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.2%), Over 1.5 (87.5%), and Under 5.5 (85.4%). The home side’s recent draw against Cobh Ramblers and the away side’s three-game winning run against Bray Wanderers add context, but the venue advantage and form metrics keep Longford as the clear favourite.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Longford Town win
63.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town win
16.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Longford Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.50
2.07
1.29
1.25
1.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.56
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.60
2.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.67
1.29
2.30
1.00
1.09
1.55
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Athlone Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Athlone Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.93
1.07
1.53
1.20
2.33
vs Stronger (17)
1.18
1.88
1.11
1.56
1.25
2.25
vs Similar (13)
1.08
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.14
2.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.3%
Under 1.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.0%
Under 2.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.4%
Under 3.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.8%
No
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.0%
2-0
8.3%
3-1
7.5%
3-0
6.5%
1-0
6.2%
2-2
5.6%
1-2
4.7%
Longford Town goals ↓
Athlone Town goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
2.7%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
1
6.2%
9.0%
4.7%
1.8%
0.5%
2
8.3%
9.6%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.5%
7.5%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
4
3.8%
4.4%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Longford Town goals (down), columns = Athlone Town goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Longford Town and Athlone Town are level in average points per game (both 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Longford Town is 1.00 goals better than Athlone Town in terms of goals scored per game (2.57 vs 1.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Longford Town is 0.57 goals worse than Athlone Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Longford Town or Draw
83.4%
Avg Implied -
63%
20%
17%
covers Longford Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Longford Town or Athlone Town
79.6%
Avg Implied -
63%
20%
17%
covers Longford Town + Athlone Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Athlone Town
37.0%
Avg Implied -
63%
20%
17%
covers Draw + Athlone Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Longford Town over/under 0.5
Over
90.4%
Under
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5
Over
68.0%
Under
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5
Over
41.6%
Under
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 3.5
Over
21.0%
Under
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 0.5
Over
68.6%
Under
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 1.5
Over
32.2%
Under
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 2.5
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Longford Town, so a minus line means Longford Town give that many goals of a start and Athlone Town receive them. At -1, Longford Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Longford Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Longford Town)
Longford Town -2
22.9%
Draw -2
18.8%
Athlone Town +2
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Longford Town)
Longford Town -1
41.7%
Draw -1
21.3%
Athlone Town +1
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Longford Town)
Longford Town +1
83.4%
Draw +1
10.1%
Athlone Town -1
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Longford Town)
Longford Town +2
93.5%
Draw +2
4.6%
Athlone Town -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Longford Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.93
0.50
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.78
0.75
0.50
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.76
0.52
1.00
0.50
0.55
0.55
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Athlone Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Athlone Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.60
0.73
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (17)
0.76
0.94
0.67
0.89
0.88
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.92
0.50
0.50
0.29
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Longford Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
1.14
0.79
0.62
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
1.22
0.75
1.50
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.90
0.76
1.30
0.50
0.55
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Athlone Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Athlone Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.47
0.80
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.94
0.44
0.67
0.38
1.25
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.08
0.50
1.00
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Athlone Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
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Kerry
Cork City
UCD
Cobh Ramblers
Treaty United
Bray Wanderers
Wexford
Finn Harps