Longford Town’s recent win over Bray Wanderers and Cork City’s draw against Treaty United set the tone for a high-scoring encounter, with the model projecting an average of 3.4 goals. The most likely total is three goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 10.5% chance. Longford, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Cork, on the road, averages 0.89 scored and 2.44 conceded. The model favours a Longford win, with a 43% chance, a draw at 24%, and a Cork victory at 33%. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (97.6%), Under 6.5 (94.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.5%), Under 5.5 (86.8%), Over 1.5 (86.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (84.1%) and Home +2 handicap (83.8%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Longford Town win
43.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cork City win
32.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Longford Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.50
2.07
1.29
1.25
1.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.56
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.60
2.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.67
1.29
2.30
1.00
1.09
1.55
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cork City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cork City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.83
1.40
1.33
1.07
2.33
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.88
0.50
1.00
0.75
2.75
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.94
1.44
1.44
0.89
2.44
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
1.25
3.00
1.50
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.4%
Under 1.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.3%
Under 2.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.5%
Under 3.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.7%
No
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.5%
3-1
5.3%
1-0
5.1%
0-1
4.3%
Longford Town goals ↓
Cork City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
4.3%
4.1%
2.2%
0.9%
1
5.1%
10%
7.5%
4.0%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.7%
6.9%
3.6%
1.4%
3
3.4%
5.3%
4.2%
2.2%
0.9%
4
1.5%
2.4%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Longford Town goals (down), columns = Cork City goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Longford Town and Cork City are level in average points per game (both 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Longford Town and Cork City are level in goals scored per game (both 2.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Longford Town is 0.43 goals better than Cork City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Longford Town or Draw
67.3%
Avg Implied -
43%
24%
33%
covers Longford Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Longford Town or Cork City
75.7%
Avg Implied -
43%
24%
33%
covers Longford Town + Cork City
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cork City
57.0%
Avg Implied -
43%
24%
33%
covers Draw + Cork City
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Longford Town over/under 0.5
Over
84.0%
Under
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5
Over
54.7%
Under
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5
Over
27.8%
Under
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 3.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 0.5
Over
79.4%
Under
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 1.5
Over
46.9%
Under
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 2.5
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 3.5
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Longford Town, so a minus line means Longford Town give that many goals of a start and Cork City receive them. At -1, Longford Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Longford Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Longford Town)
Longford Town -2
10.6%
Draw -2
13.2%
Cork City +2
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Longford Town)
Longford Town -1
23.8%
Draw -1
19.2%
Cork City +1
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Longford Town)
Longford Town +1
67.3%
Draw +1
16.5%
Cork City -1
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Longford Town)
Longford Town +2
83.8%
Draw +2
9.9%
Cork City -2
6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Longford Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.93
0.50
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.78
0.75
0.50
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.76
0.52
1.00
0.50
0.55
0.55
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Cork City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cork City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.93
0.47
0.67
0.33
1.20
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.94
0.44
0.67
0.56
1.22
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Longford Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
1.14
0.79
0.62
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
1.22
0.75
1.50
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.90
0.76
1.30
0.50
0.55
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Cork City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cork City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
0.93
0.67
0.73
1.13
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (18)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.78
0.33
1.22
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cork City over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cork City · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruairi Keating43%
Djenairo Daniels33%
Sean Maguire22%
Matthew Murray17%
Kitt Nelson17%
Alex Nolan12%
Malik Dijksteel11%
Evan McLaughlin11%
Greg Bolger5%
Joshua Fitzpatrick4%
Charlie Lyons4%
Freddie Anderson4%
Darragh Crowley3%
Fiacre Kelleher0%
Sean Murray0%
Rory Feely0%
David Odumosu0%
Tein Troost0%
Charlie Lutz0%
Benny Couto0%
Conor Brann0%
Milan Mbeng0%
Harry Nevin0%
Rio Shipston0%
Kaedyn Kamara0%
Cathal O'Sullivan0%
Matthew Kiernan0%
Harvey Skieters0%
Brody Lee0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ruairi Keating43%
Kaedyn Kamara40%
Matthew Kiernan38%
Milan Mbeng38%
Greg Bolger32%
Rio Shipston29%
Charlie Lyons24%
Fiacre Kelleher22%
Sean Maguire22%
Cathal O'Sullivan21%
Darragh Crowley19%
Rory Feely17%
Joshua Fitzpatrick17%
Kitt Nelson17%
Brody Lee17%
Tein Troost16%
Alex Nolan15%
Evan McLaughlin15%
Harry Nevin11%
Sean Murray11%
Djenairo Daniels8%
Freddie Anderson7%
Benny Couto6%
David Odumosu0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Charlie Lutz0%
Conor Brann0%
Matthew Murray0%
Harvey Skieters0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Djenairo Daniels17%
Cathal O'Sullivan16%
Benny Couto12%
Rio Shipston12%
Conor Brann9%
Evan McLaughlin7%
Milan Mbeng6%
Greg Bolger5%
Matthew Kiernan5%
Sean Maguire4%
Joshua Fitzpatrick4%
Freddie Anderson4%
Kitt Nelson3%
Darragh Crowley3%
Fiacre Kelleher0%
Sean Murray0%
Rory Feely0%
Charlie Lyons0%
Ruairi Keating0%
David Odumosu0%
Tein Troost0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Alex Nolan0%
Charlie Lutz0%
Harry Nevin0%
Kaedyn Kamara0%
Matthew Murray0%
Harvey Skieters0%
Brody Lee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ruairi Keating43%
Sean Maguire17%
Fiacre Kelleher11%
Malik Dijksteel11%
Djenairo Daniels8%
Alex Nolan8%
Evan McLaughlin7%
Sean Murray7%
Milan Mbeng6%
Benny Couto6%
Joshua Fitzpatrick4%
Greg Bolger0%
Rory Feely0%
Darragh Crowley0%
Charlie Lyons0%
David Odumosu0%
Tein Troost0%
Charlie Lutz0%
Conor Brann0%
Harry Nevin0%
Rio Shipston0%
Kaedyn Kamara0%
Matthew Murray0%
Freddie Anderson0%
Cathal O'Sullivan0%
Kitt Nelson0%
Matthew Kiernan0%
Harvey Skieters0%
Brody Lee0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kerry
Athlone Town
UCD
Cobh Ramblers
Treaty United
Bray Wanderers
Wexford
Finn Harps