This match is expected to be a closely contested home win for Longford Town. The home side has been struggling recently, coming off a defeat, but they should still have the upper hand against a Finn Harps team that has been on a dismal run, losing their last five matches. Longford Town's home form is mediocre, scoring an average of 1.46 goals and conceding the same amount, while facing opponents of similar strength. Finn Harps have been poor on the road, scoring 0.62 goals and conceding 1.25 goals per match against similar opponents.
The model predicts a home win with a 47% probability, a draw with 27%, and an away win with 27%. The expected total number of goals is 2.8. The most likely score is 1-1 with a probability of 12.7%. Longford Town has a 47% chance of winning, a 27% chance of drawing, and a 27% chance of losing.
The model's selection is the home win, and it also suggests Over 1.5 goals with a probability of 78.5%. This selection has a 6% edge, indicating a slight advantage.
Results analysis
The win extends Longford Town's recent form, with this result coming after a defeat. The final score was a convincing 5-0 in favour of Longford Town, resulting in a home win. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, given its pre-match probability of 47%. The model's call was a home win, which landed as expected. The model's selection, a home win, was the favourite, with a probability of winning of 47%, 27% for a draw and 27% for an away win. The model's selection of a home win was correct. The model's selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit, with a probability of 78.5%, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 25%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Longford Town win✓ Hit
46.6%
Avg Implied 56.1% · @ 1.62
Edge
-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.72
Dafabet
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
888Sport
1.62
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.65
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.93
10Bet
3.85
Betano
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Finn Harps win✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 19.1% · @ 4.74
Edge
+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.23
1xBet
5.01
Marathonbet
4.95
Dafabet
4.90
10Bet
4.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Longford Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.60
1.57
1.43
1.12
1.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.45
2.00
1.33
2.00
1.60
2.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.26
1.37
1.75
1.00
0.91
1.64
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Finn Harps
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.70
1.19
1.62
0.86
1.79
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
1.77
1.00
1.86
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.65
1.33
1.44
1.00
1.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.5%
@ 1.25+5.5%
Under 1.5
21.5%
@ 3.38-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Under
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.54
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.7%
@ 1.82+3.1%
Under 2.5
46.3%
@ 1.88-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.90
Bet365
1.85
Betfair
1.85
Betano
1.85
Under
Unibet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.92
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.5%
@ 3.01+1.1%
Under 3.5
68.5%
@ 1.31-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.22
888Sport
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Under
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.2%
@ 1.81+6.7%
No
42.8%
@ 1.84-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
William Hil
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
No
Unibet
2.00
10Bet
1.90
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.86
888Sport
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 6.48+6.1%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.16+3.5%
1-0
8.5%@ 6.12+1.6%
2-0
7.9%@ 7.00+1.8%
0-0
7.1%@ 9.47+2.6%
1-2
6.9%@ 13.95+3.8%
0-1
5.9%@ 12.01+2.3%
2-2
5.6%@ 14.76+2.7%
Longford Town goals ↓
Finn Harps goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
5.9%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
1
8.5%
13%
6.9%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.9%
9.4%
5.6%
2.2%
0.7%
3
4.3%
5.2%
3.1%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.8%
2.1%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Longford Town goals (down), columns = Finn Harps goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Longford Town is 1.86 points better than Finn Harps in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Longford Town is 1.71 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals scored per game (2.57 vs 0.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Longford Town is 1.86 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 3.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Longford Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.64
0.43
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
0.50
0.33
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.53
0.53
0.75
0.50
0.36
0.55
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Finn Harps
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.83
0.38
0.81
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.54
0.14
0.71
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (17)
0.59
1.06
0.56
0.89
0.62
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Longford Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.03
0.93
1.00
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
1.36
0.83
1.67
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.74
0.84
1.00
0.50
0.55
1.09
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Finn Harps
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.81
0.81
0.36
0.93
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.23
0.86
1.14
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.59
0.78
0.56
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.5%
1.25
Pinnacle
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.25
+5.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kerry
Cork City
Athlone Town
UCD
Cobh Ramblers
Treaty United
Bray Wanderers
Wexford