Longford Town are tipped to win this Ireland First Division clash, with the model favouring a home victory. The expected total is 2.9 goals, centring around a 2-goal outcome that carries a 24 % chance. The most likely exact score is 1-1, a 12.3 % probability. Longford, playing at home against a weaker side, have averaged 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Treaty United, away against a stronger opponent, average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. Home win probability stands at 50 %, draw at 26 %, and away win at 24 %. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (97.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1 %), Under 5.5 (92.8 %), Home +2 handicap (90.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (90.1 %), Away under 2.5 goals (89.2 %), and Under 4.5 (83.5 %). Longford’s recent form shows a win, while Treaty United come off a draw, adding context to the predicted outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Longford Town win
54.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Treaty United win
21.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Longford Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.50
2.07
1.29
1.25
1.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.56
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.60
2.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.67
1.29
2.30
1.00
1.09
1.55
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Treaty United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.47
1.21
1.43
0.88
1.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.55
0.67
2.00
1.20
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.38
1.71
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.2%
Under 2.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.8%
Under 3.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.9%
1-0
8.5%
0-0
6.2%
3-1
6.1%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.5%
Longford Town goals ↓
Treaty United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
4.6%
3.1%
1.2%
0.3%
1
8.5%
12%
5.9%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.9%
9.9%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
3
5.5%
6.1%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.6%
2.9%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Longford Town goals (down), columns = Treaty United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Longford Town is 0.43 points better than Treaty United in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Longford Town is 1.43 goals better than Treaty United in terms of goals scored per game (2.57 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Longford Town is 0.14 goals worse than Treaty United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Longford Town or Draw
78.6%
Avg Implied -
54%
25%
21%
covers Longford Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Longford Town or Treaty United
75.3%
Avg Implied -
54%
25%
21%
covers Longford Town + Treaty United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Treaty United
46.0%
Avg Implied -
54%
25%
21%
covers Draw + Treaty United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Longford Town over/under 0.5
Over
84.5%
Under
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5
Over
55.6%
Under
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5
Over
28.7%
Under
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 3.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 0.5
Over
67.1%
Under
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5
Over
30.5%
Under
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Longford Town, so a minus line means Longford Town give that many goals of a start and Treaty United receive them. At -1, Longford Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Longford Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Longford Town)
Longford Town -2
14.8%
Draw -2
16.8%
Treaty United +2
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Longford Town)
Longford Town -1
31.6%
Draw -1
22.4%
Treaty United +1
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Longford Town)
Longford Town +1
78.6%
Draw +1
12.9%
Treaty United -1
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Longford Town)
Longford Town +2
91.5%
Draw +2
6.0%
Treaty United -2
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Longford Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.93
0.50
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.78
0.75
0.50
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.76
0.52
1.00
0.50
0.55
0.55
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Treaty United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.50
0.29
0.50
0.12
0.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.09
0.64
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.20
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.44
0.43
0.14
0.22
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.2%
Under 0.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.8%
Under 1.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.2%
Under 2.5
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.0%
Under
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.1%
Under
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.2%
Under
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Longford Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
1.14
0.79
0.62
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
1.22
0.75
1.50
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.90
0.76
1.30
0.50
0.55
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Treaty United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.93
0.93
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.91
0.50
1.00
1.20
0.80
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.94
1.29
0.86
0.44
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.0%
Under 0.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.4%
Under 1.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.8%
Under 2.5
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.9%
Under
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.7%
Under
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
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Kerry
Cork City
Athlone Town
UCD
Cobh Ramblers
Bray Wanderers
Wexford
Finn Harps