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Longford Town vs Wexford Result & Analysis

Date: 25/07/2026
Time: 18:30
Final 1-2
Longford Town
Longford Town
Vs
40%
27%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Wexford
Wexford
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Longford Town a 40% win probability against Wexford in the Ireland: First Division on 2026-07-25, with 27% for the draw and 33% for Wexford. The model estimates around 2.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.9%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (79%).

Results analysis

Longford Town finished 1-2 against Wexford (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 40% home win, 27% draw and 33% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (79%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Longford Town win✗ Miss
39.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Wexford win✓ Hit
33.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Longford TownLongford Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L22D11D12L32W20W21W31W21W43WA·KER22/08H·WEX30/08H·FIN05/09A·UCD12/09H·DUN20/09A·BRA26/09A·TRE05/10H·COB10/10A·ATH17/10A·COR10/07
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.671.501.361.121.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.091.911.171.831.002.00
vs Weaker (19)1.421.531.751.001.181.91
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

WexfordWexford

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L22D00D32W31W21W03L20W02L22DH·BRA22/08A·LON30/08H·DUN05/09H·COB19/09A·FIN22/09A·ATH26/09H·UCD05/10A·KER10/10H·TRE17/10H·KER10/07
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.431.251.501.211.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.431.711.251.251.672.33
vs Weaker (23)1.171.351.251.581.091.09
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.7%
Under 1.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.0%
Under 2.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.7%
Under 3.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
8.8%
1-2 ✓
7.9%
1-0
7.6%
0-0
7.0%
0-1
6.7%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
Longford Town goals ↓
Wexford goals →
01234
07.0%6.7%5.3%2.4%0.8%
17.6%13%7.9%3.5%1.2%
26.5%8.8%5.9%2.7%0.9%
33.2%4.4%2.9%1.3%0.4%
41.2%1.6%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Longford Town goals (down), columns = Wexford goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.80
Longford Town
1.80
Treaty United
1.80
Bray Wanderers
1.80
UCD
1.40
Athlone Town
1.40
Wexford
1.40
Cobh Ramblers
1.20
Finn Harps
0.00
Longford Town is 0.40 points better than Wexford in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.40).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.80
Bray Wanderers
2.80
Longford Town
2.40
Kerry
2.40
UCD
2.00
Athlone Town
1.40
Wexford
1.40
Treaty United
1.00
Cobh Ramblers
0.80
Finn Harps
0.20
Longford Town is 1.00 goals better than Wexford in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 1.40).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Treaty United
1.00
Athlone Town
1.20
Kerry
1.20
Longford Town
1.40
Cobh Ramblers
1.40
Bray Wanderers
1.40
Wexford
1.80
UCD
2.20
Cork City
2.40
Finn Harps
3.20
Longford Town is 0.40 goals better than Wexford in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.80).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Longford TownLongford Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W00D01L11D10W10W11D01L21WA·KER22/08H·WEX30/08H·FIN05/09A·UCD12/09H·DUN20/09A·BRA26/09A·TRE05/10H·COB10/10A·ATH17/10A·COR10/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.570.640.360.440.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.450.550.500.170.401.00
vs Weaker (19)0.580.580.750.500.450.64
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Wexford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

WexfordWexford

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L00D11D00D11D01L00D00D11DH·BRA22/08A·LON30/08H·DUN05/09H·COB19/09A·FIN22/09A·ATH26/09H·UCD05/10A·KER10/10H·TRE17/10H·KER10/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.730.560.750.210.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.430.860.750.500.001.33
vs Weaker (23)0.390.700.500.830.270.55
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wexford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CR (40)
€0m
FH (32)
€0m
TU (31)
€0m
BW (29)
€0m
CC (30)
€0m
KER (28)
€0m
AT (38)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AT (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AT (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AT (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
LT wins
3
Draws
2
WEX wins

Head-to-head

Longford Town vs Wexford · H/A from LT
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/25HLT Vs Wexford2-2
20/06/25AWexford Vs LT0-1
03/05/25HLT Vs Wexford2-1
08/04/25AWexford Vs LT3-1
21/09/24HLT Vs Wexford3-0
03/06/24AWexford Vs LT2-2
27/04/24HLT Vs Wexford1-2
16/04/24AWexford Vs LT2-2

Longford TownLongford Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/07/26ACork City Vs LT3-4
17/10/25AAthlone Town Vs LT1-2
10/10/25HLT Vs Cobh Ramblers3-1
05/10/25ATreaty United Vs LT1-2
26/09/25ABray Wanderers Vs LT0-2
20/09/25HLT Vs Dundalk3-2
12/09/25AUCD Vs LT2-1
05/09/25HLT Vs Finn Harps1-1
30/08/25HLT Vs Wexford2-2
22/08/25AKerry Vs LT1-0

WexfordWexford

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/07/26HWEX Vs Kerry2-2
17/10/25HWEX Vs Treaty United0-2
10/10/25AKerry Vs WEX0-2
05/10/25HWEX Vs UCD0-3
26/09/25AAthlone Town Vs WEX1-2
22/09/25AFinn Harps Vs WEX1-3
19/09/25HWEX Vs Cobh Ramblers3-2
05/09/25HWEX Vs Dundalk0-0
30/08/25ALongford Town Vs WEX2-2
22/08/25HWEX Vs Bray Wanderers0-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Longford Town
Longford Town
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.20
HomeWDDWW1.60
AwayLWWWW0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%44%20%
AVG goals2.982.803.16
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %56%52%60%
Over 3.5 %38%32%44%
Scored1.281.521.04
Conceded1.701.282.12
BTTS62%60%64%
Clean Sheet18%24%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Wexford
Wexford
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLD1.44
HomeDWLLD1.44
AwayLDWWW1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%40%40%
AVG goals2.662.442.88
Over 1.5 %74%68%80%
Over 2.5 %52%44%60%
Over 3.5 %32%28%36%
Scored1.321.321.32
Conceded1.341.121.56
BTTS48%36%60%
Clean Sheet24%36%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KerryKerry510
60%
2.0
126+6
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.2
-
2Bray WanderersBray Wanderers59
60%
1.8
147+7
4.2
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.4
-
3Longford TownLongford Town59
60%
1.8
127+5
3.8
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.4
-
4Cork CityCork City59
60%
1.8
1412+2
5.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.82.4
-
5Treaty UnitedTreaty United59
60%
1.8
55+0
2.0
60%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
6Athlone TownAthlone Town57
40%
1.4
76+1
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
7UCDUCD57
40%
1.4
1011-1
4.2
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.2
-
8WexfordWexford57
40%
1.4
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
9Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers56
40%
1.2
47-3
2.2
80%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.4
-
10Finn HarpsFinn Harps50
0%
0.0
116-15
3.4
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.23.2
-
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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