This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.00
1.07
0.57
1.44
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (8)
0.88
1.25
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.45
0.75
1.33
0.33
1.55
1.09
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.4%
@ 1.76+7.5%
Under 2.5
38.6%
@ 2.06-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.1%
Under 3.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.1%
No
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.6%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
6.6%
0-1
6.0%
0-2
6.0%
0-0
5.2%
1-0
5.2%
Lorient goals ↓
Lyon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
6.0%
6.0%
3.4%
1.4%
1
5.2%
12%
8.9%
5.0%
2.1%
2
4.6%
7.8%
6.6%
3.7%
1.6%
3
2.3%
3.9%
3.3%
1.8%
0.8%
4
0.8%
1.4%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lorient goals (down), columns = Lyon goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lille
2.18
Paris Saint Germain
2.16
Monaco
2.05
Lyon
2.00
Marseille
1.58
Rennes
1.53
Lens
1.50
Montpellier
1.42
Nice
1.37
Metz
1.24
Saint Etienne
1.21
Bordeaux
1.18
Angers
1.16
Reims
1.11
Strasbourg
1.11
Lorient
1.11
Stade Brestois 29
1.08
Nantes
1.05
Nimes
0.92
Dijon
0.55
Lorient is 0.89 points worse than Lyon in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.26
Lyon
2.13
Monaco
2.00
Lille
1.68
Montpellier
1.58
Lens
1.45
Marseille
1.42
Rennes
1.37
Nice
1.32
Stade Brestois 29
1.32
Lorient
1.32
Strasbourg
1.29
Nantes
1.24
Metz
1.16
Reims
1.11
Saint Etienne
1.11
Bordeaux
1.11
Nimes
1.05
Angers
1.05
Dijon
0.66
Lorient is 0.82 goals worse than Lyon in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 2.13).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lille
0.61
Paris Saint Germain
0.74
Rennes
1.05
Monaco
1.11
Lyon
1.13
Marseille
1.24
Metz
1.26
Reims
1.32
Nice
1.39
Lens
1.42
Saint Etienne
1.42
Nantes
1.45
Bordeaux
1.47
Angers
1.53
Strasbourg
1.53
Montpellier
1.63
Stade Brestois 29
1.74
Lorient
1.79
Nimes
1.87
Dijon
1.92
Lorient is 0.66 goals worse than Lyon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.13).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lorient
For 5.6 · Against 2.7 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 13.3 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lyon
For 6.1 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 12.5 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lorient
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.4
9.0
4.3
4.0
4.7
26.9
25.6
28.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
8.1
8.5
7.6
4.6
4.4
4.9
28.4
26.1
30.8
vs Weaker (34)
9.8
9.8
9.7
4.2
3.8
4.6
26.2
25.3
27.1
% over line
42%
48%
36%
54%
52%
56%
86%
84%
88%
% under line
58%
52%
64%
46%
48%
44%
14%
16%
12%
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.4
9.4
4.1
3.8
4.3
24.4
23.0
25.6
vs Stronger (3)
12.0
13.5
9.0
2.7
2.5
3.0
20.3
18.0
25.0
vs Similar (15)
9.4
9.0
9.6
4.5
4.6
4.5
28.2
29.0
27.8
vs Weaker (32)
9.8
10.4
9.2
4.0
3.7
4.3
23.0
21.8
24.3
% over line
40%
48%
33%
58%
39%
74%
70%
57%
81%
% under line
60%
52%
67%
42%
61%
26%
30%
43%
19%
This opponent (Lorient) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stade Brestois 29
10.3
Bordeaux
10.2
Dijon
10.2
Metz
10.2
Nice
10.1
Monaco
10.0
Nimes
9.9
Paris Saint Germain
9.9
Lyon
9.8
Montpellier
9.7
Saint Etienne
9.7
Marseille
9.7
Nantes
9.6
Rennes
9.5
Reims
9.5
Lorient
9.2
Lille
9.1
Lens
9.0
Angers
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Nimes
5.0
Lens
4.9
Marseille
4.8
Monaco
4.7
Bordeaux
4.6
Rennes
4.6
Montpellier
4.6
Nice
4.4
Lorient
4.3
Nantes
4.3
Lille
4.3
Paris Saint Germain
4.2
Saint Etienne
4.2
Lyon
4.1
Strasbourg
4.0
Metz
3.8
Reims
3.7
Angers
3.5
Dijon
3.4
Stade Brestois 29
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lens
30.0
Montpellier
28.8
Bordeaux
27.9
Nimes
27.7
Rennes
27.2
Reims
27.0
Lorient
26.9
Lille
26.7
Marseille
26.5
Monaco
26.5
Nantes
26.1
Saint Etienne
25.9
Strasbourg
25.9
Dijon
25.3
Metz
25.2
Nice
25.0
Angers
24.5
Paris Saint Germain
24.5
Lyon
24.4
Stade Brestois 29
24.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.0%
Under 9.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
70.8%
Under 3.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
82.7%
Under 21.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lorient
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.88
0.25
0.75
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
0.91
0.36
0.91
0.45
0.91
0.27
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.79
0.14
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.75
0.75
0.25
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.40
0.89
0.11
0.64
0.64
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lorient over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lorient
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.87
0.53
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.75
1.25
0.50
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
0.77
0.55
0.73
0.55
0.82
0.55
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lyon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.29
0.43
0.88
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (20)
0.70
0.35
0.44
0.22
0.91
0.45
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lorient over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lorient · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng44%
Pablo Pagis28%
Aiyegun Tosin18%
Noah Cadiou13%
Jean-Victor Makengo11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Sambou Soumano9%
Théo Le Bris6%
Karim Dermane6%
Arthur Avom Ebong6%
Arsène Kouassi6%
Panos Katseris6%
Igor Silva5%
Laurent Abergel3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Darlin Yongwa0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Bamo Meïté0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Abdoulaye Faye42%
Laurent Abergel27%
Bamo Meïté21%
Panos Katseris17%
Darlin Yongwa16%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng16%
Mohamed Bamba16%
Arsène Kouassi15%
Bingourou Kamara14%
Montassar Talbi13%
Arthur Avom Ebong12%
Noah Cadiou6%
Sambou Soumano6%
Karim Dermane6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Igor Silva5%
Aiyegun Tosin4%
Pablo Pagis3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arsène Kouassi18%
Pablo Pagis12%
Panos Katseris11%
Igor Silva11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Bamo Meïté10%
Théo Le Bris9%
Sambou Soumano6%
Karim Dermane6%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Darlin Yongwa4%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng4%
Noah Cadiou3%
Montassar Talbi3%
Arthur Avom Ebong3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Aiyegun Tosin0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng32%
Pablo Pagis25%
Aiyegun Tosin11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Arthur Avom Ebong6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Nathaniel Adjei6%
Noah Cadiou3%
Sambou Soumano3%
Igor Silva0%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Darlin Yongwa0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Bamo Meïté0%
Karim Dermane0%
Panos Katseris0%
Arsène Kouassi0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
Lyon · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Loïs Openda40%
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Ernest Nuamah20%
Tyler Morton17%
Malick Fofana17%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Loïs Openda20%
Abner Vinícius20%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Corentin Tolisso33%
Pavel Šulc33%
Zachary Athekame33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Clinton Mata0%
Loïs Openda0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Noah Nartey0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Loïs Openda40%
Corentin Tolisso33%
Malick Fofana33%
Kaïl Boudache20%
Tyler Morton17%
Clinton Mata0%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Noah Nartey0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
NIC (28)
€152m
SE (30)
€93m
LOR (24)
€87m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
REI (30)
€72m
SB2 (20)
€64m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Lorient's squad is €207m less valuable than Lyon's (€87m vs €293m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
LEN (8)
€52m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
LOR (8)
€20m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Lorient's attack is €102m less valuable than Lyon's (€20m vs €122m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
REN (5)
€44m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
LEN (5)
€24m
SB2 (6)
€20m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
ANG (3)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
DIJ (6)
€2m
Lorient's midfield is €50m less valuable than Lyon's (€32m vs €82m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
LOR (11)
€35m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
SB2 (8)
€19m
MON (10)
€12m
MET (10)
€8m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Lorient's defence is €54m less valuable than Lyon's (€35m vs €89m).
France: Ligue 1 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Paris Saint Germain
Monaco
Marseille
Rennes
Lens
Montpellier
Nice
Metz
Saint Etienne
Bordeaux
Angers
Reims
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Nantes
Nimes
Dijon