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Loughgall vs Ards Result & Analysis

Date: 10/03/2026
Time: 19:45
Final 0-1
Loughgall
Loughgall
Vs
49%
27%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Loughgall win✗ Miss
48.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ards win✓ Hit
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

LoughgallLoughgall

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W30W30W12L40W10W00D21W10W02LH·ARM26/12A·DUN13/01H·ANN17/01A·H&W24/01H·QUE14/02H·BAL17/02A·LIM21/02H·NEW24/02H·WAR28/02A·INS03/03
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.470.971.810.881.071.07
vs Stronger (6)2.331.002.750.751.501.50
vs Similar (16)1.381.191.571.141.221.22
vs Weaker (8)1.000.501.400.600.330.33
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-800D80W02L00D21W23L22D21W20W23LH·WAR26/12A·ARM30/12A·NEW17/01H·INS24/01H·NEW03/02H·H&W14/02A·QUE21/02H·BAL28/02H·LIM03/03A·ANN07/03
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.501.331.601.671.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.321.581.111.561.501.60
vs Weaker (11)1.821.361.671.672.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.6%
Under 1.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.5%
Under 2.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.3%
Under 3.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
9.2%
2-0
8.5%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
6.5%
0-1 ✓
5.8%
2-2
5.4%
Loughgall goals ↓
Ards goals →
01234
07.4%5.8%3.9%1.5%0.4%
19.2%13%6.5%2.4%0.7%
28.5%9.6%5.4%2.0%0.6%
34.7%5.3%3.0%1.1%0.3%
42.0%2.2%1.2%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Loughgall goals (down), columns = Ards goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Limavady United
2.13
Annagh United
1.89
H&W Welders
1.74
Newington Youth
1.58
Institute
1.55
Queen's University
1.50
Loughgall
1.47
Ards
1.37
Warrenpoint Town
1.08
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Dundela
0.74
Armagh City
0.50
Loughgall is 0.11 points better than Ards in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.37).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
H&W Welders
2.29
Newington Youth
2.03
Limavady United
1.82
Institute
1.55
Ards
1.47
Annagh United
1.45
Queen's University
1.34
Loughgall
1.32
Warrenpoint Town
1.18
Ballinamallard United
1.16
Dundela
1.13
Armagh City
0.79
Loughgall is 0.16 goals worse than Ards in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.47).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Limavady United
0.89
Loughgall
1.00
Annagh United
1.03
Queen's University
1.21
Institute
1.21
H&W Welders
1.26
Ards
1.34
Warrenpoint Town
1.39
Ballinamallard United
1.58
Newington Youth
1.63
Dundela
2.03
Armagh City
2.95
Loughgall is 0.34 goals better than Ards in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.34).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LoughgallLoughgall

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W10W02L20W10W00D10W00D01LH·ARM26/12A·DUN13/01H·ANN17/01A·H&W24/01H·QUE14/02H·BAL17/02A·LIM21/02H·NEW24/02H·WAR28/02A·INS03/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.470.560.310.500.64
vs Stronger (6)0.670.500.750.250.501.00
vs Similar (16)0.560.620.570.430.560.78
vs Weaker (8)0.380.120.400.200.330.00
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D40W00D00D10W12L02L00D10W12LH·WAR26/12A·ARM30/12A·NEW17/01H·INS24/01H·NEW03/02H·H&W14/02A·QUE21/02H·BAL28/02H·LIM03/03A·ANN07/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.600.530.670.730.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.580.580.560.560.600.60
vs Weaker (11)0.730.640.500.831.000.40
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LoughgallLoughgall

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W20W10W20W00D00D11D10W01LH·ARM26/12A·DUN13/01H·ANN17/01A·H&W24/01H·QUE14/02H·BAL17/02A·LIM21/02H·NEW24/02H·WAR28/02A·INS03/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.501.250.560.570.43
vs Stronger (6)1.670.502.000.501.000.50
vs Similar (16)0.810.561.000.710.670.44
vs Weaker (8)0.620.381.000.400.000.33
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArdsArds

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D40W02L00D11D11D20W21W10W11DH·WAR26/12A·ARM30/12A·NEW17/01H·INS24/01H·NEW03/02H·H&W14/02A·QUE21/02H·BAL28/02H·LIM03/03A·ANN07/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.900.800.930.930.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.741.000.561.000.901.00
vs Weaker (11)1.090.731.170.831.000.60
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (5)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AC (2)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HW (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
4
LOU wins
2
Draws
0
ARD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Loughgall vs Ards · H/A from LOU
DateH/AGameScore
06/12/25AArds Vs LOU1-1
27/09/25HLOU Vs Ards1-1
08/04/23HLOU Vs Ards5-0
18/02/23AArds Vs LOU0-3
29/10/22HLOU Vs Ards6-1
19/08/22AArds Vs LOU0-5

LoughgallLoughgall

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/03/26AInstitute Vs LOU2-0
28/02/26HLOU Vs Warrenpoint Town1-0
24/02/26HLOU Vs Newington Youth2-1
21/02/26ALimavady United Vs LOU0-0
17/02/26HLOU Vs Ballinamallard United1-0
14/02/26HLOU Vs Queen's University4-0
24/01/26AH&W Welders Vs LOU2-1
17/01/26HLOU Vs Annagh United3-0
13/01/26ADundela Vs LOU0-3
26/12/25HLOU Vs Armagh City2-1

ArdsArds

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/03/26AAnnagh United Vs ARD3-2
03/03/26HARD Vs Limavady United2-0
28/02/26HARD Vs Ballinamallard United2-1
21/02/26AQueen's University Vs ARD2-2
14/02/26HARD Vs H&W Welders2-3
03/02/26HARD Vs Newington Youth2-1
24/01/26HARD Vs Institute0-0
17/01/26ANewington Youth Vs ARD2-0
30/12/25AArmagh City Vs ARD0-8
26/12/25HARD Vs Warrenpoint Town0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Loughgall
Loughgall
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWL1.22
HomeWWWWW1.44
AwayLWLDL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%41%17%
AVG goals2.602.962.17
Over 1.5 %74%85%61%
Over 2.5 %50%63%35%
Over 3.5 %28%33%22%
Scored1.241.520.91
Conceded1.361.441.26
BTTS58%67%48%
Clean Sheet26%22%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Ards
Ards
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWWL1.26
HomeDWLWW1.32
AwayWWLDL1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%36%32%
AVG goals2.782.922.64
Over 1.5 %68%76%60%
Over 2.5 %50%56%44%
Over 3.5 %36%36%36%
Scored1.381.361.40
Conceded1.401.561.24
BTTS52%64%40%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Limavady UnitedLimavady United3881
63%
2.1
6934+35
2.7
68%
47%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.9
-
2Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3872
58%
1.9
5539+16
2.5
71%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
3H&W WeldersH&W Welders3866
50%
1.7
8748+39
3.6
92%
76%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.3
-
4Newington YouthNewington Youth3860
47%
1.6
7762+15
3.7
87%
74%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
5InstituteInstitute3859
45%
1.6
5946+13
2.8
71%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6QueenQueen's University3857
39%
1.5
5146+5
2.6
76%
39%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.2
-
7LoughgallLoughgall3856
37%
1.5
5038+12
2.3
74%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
8ArdsArds3852
39%
1.4
5651+5
2.8
74%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town3841
29%
1.1
4553-8
2.6
58%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
10Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3838
24%
1.0
4460-16
2.7
68%
55%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
11DundelaDundela3828
13%
0.7
4377-34
3.2
89%
68%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12Armagh CityArmagh City3819
11%
0.5
30112-82
3.7
87%
71%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.9
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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