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Loughgall vs Moyola Park Prediction & Stats

Date: 10/10/2026
Time: 14:00
Loughgall
Loughgall
Vs
50%
25%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Loughgall are tipped to win, with a 50% chance of a home victory, a 25% draw probability and a 25% chance for Moyola Park. The match is expected to see three goals on average, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12% probability. Loughgall, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, have scored an average of 1.25 goals and conceded 1.25. Moyola Park, on the road, have scored 1.0 and conceded 2.0 against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Under 6.5 (96.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Under 5.5 (91.8%), Home +2 handicap (89.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.9%) and Home over 0.5 goals (83.1%). Loughgall’s unbeaten run in their last five, highlighted by a 3-3 draw, and Moyola Park’s recent win over Armagh City, 1-0, set the stage for a tightly contested encounter.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Loughgall win
49.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park win
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LoughgallLoughgall

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D20W00D12L31W22D00D21W33DH·LIM28/03A·ANN04/04H·H&W11/04A·QUE18/04A·NEW24/04A·RAT08/08H·NEW11/08A·INS15/08A·ARD22/08H·WAR28/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.001.711.061.000.92
vs Stronger (6)2.000.672.750.750.500.50
vs Similar (17)1.121.121.251.251.001.00
vs Weaker (7)1.571.001.601.001.501.00
Clean sheet %33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D13L20W02L10WA·DUN08/08H·STR11/08H·BAL15/08A·ANN22/08H·ARM28/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.401.331.001.002.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Weaker (3)1.331.001.331.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.9%
Under 1.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.3%
Under 2.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.9%
Under 3.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.3%
No
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
8.0%
1-0
7.9%
1-2
6.5%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
5.8%
3-1
5.7%
Loughgall goals ↓
Moyola Park goals →
01234
06.2%5.0%3.7%1.5%0.4%
17.9%12%6.5%2.6%0.8%
28.0%9.6%5.8%2.3%0.7%
34.7%5.7%3.4%1.4%0.4%
42.1%2.5%1.5%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Loughgall goals (down), columns = Moyola Park goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Loughgall is 0.40 points better than Moyola Park in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Loughgall is 0.80 goals better than Moyola Park in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.20).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Loughgall and Moyola Park are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.40).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Loughgall or Draw
75.2%
Avg Implied -
50%
25%
25%
covers Loughgall + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Loughgall or Moyola Park
74.5%
Avg Implied -
50%
25%
25%
covers Loughgall + Moyola Park
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Moyola Park
50.3%
Avg Implied -
50%
25%
25%
covers Draw + Moyola Park
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Loughgall over/under 0.5
Over
83.1%
Under
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5
Over
26.3%
Under
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 3.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5
Over
70.0%
Under
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5
Over
33.9%
Under
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Loughgall, so a minus line means Loughgall give that many goals of a start and Moyola Park receive them. At -1, Loughgall must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Loughgall win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Loughgall)
Loughgall -2
12.5%
Draw -2
15.5%
Moyola Park +2
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Loughgall)
Loughgall -1
28.0%
Draw -1
21.7%
Moyola Park +1
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Loughgall)
Loughgall +1
75.2%
Draw +1
14.4%
Moyola Park -1
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Loughgall)
Loughgall +2
89.6%
Draw +2
7.1%
Moyola Park -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LoughgallLoughgall

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W10W00D11D10W12L00D11D11DH·LIM28/03A·ANN04/04H·H&W11/04A·QUE18/04A·NEW24/04A·RAT08/08H·NEW11/08A·INS15/08A·ARD22/08H·WAR28/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.470.590.410.540.54
vs Stronger (6)0.670.170.750.250.500.00
vs Similar (17)0.530.710.500.620.560.78
vs Weaker (7)0.570.140.600.200.500.00
Clean sheet %63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L00D00D00DA·DUN08/08H·STR11/08H·BAL15/08A·ANN22/08H·ARM28/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.200.600.330.670.000.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)0.000.50--0.000.50
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.330.67--
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LoughgallLoughgall

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L10W00D01L21W10W00D10W22DH·LIM28/03A·ANN04/04H·H&W11/04A·QUE18/04A·NEW24/04A·RAT08/08H·NEW11/08A·INS15/08A·ARD22/08H·WAR28/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.531.120.650.460.38
vs Stronger (6)1.330.502.000.500.000.50
vs Similar (17)0.590.410.750.620.440.22
vs Weaker (7)1.000.861.000.801.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L20W02L10WA·DUN08/08H·STR11/08H·BAL15/08A·ANN22/08H·ARM28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.801.000.331.001.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.001.50--1.001.50
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.33--
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.8%-------
Under 6.596.7%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.6%-------
Under 5.591.8%-------
Home +2 handicap89.6%-------
Home under 3.5 goals89.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals87.9%-------
Home over 0.5 goals83.1%-------
Under 4.581.8%-------
Over 1.580.9%-------
Home or Draw75.2%-------
Home +1 handicap75.2%-------
Home or Away74.5%-------
Home under 2.5 goals73.7%-------
Away +2 handicap72.0%-------
Away over 0.5 goals70.0%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
LOU wins
0
Draws
0
MP wins

Head-to-head

Loughgall vs Moyola Park · H/A from LOU
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

LoughgallLoughgall

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HLOU Vs Warrenpoint Town3-3
22/08/26AArds Vs LOU1-2
15/08/26AInstitute Vs LOU0-0
11/08/26HLOU Vs Newington Youth2-2
08/08/26ARathfriland Vs LOU1-3
24/04/26ANewington Youth Vs LOU2-1
18/04/26AQueen's University Vs LOU0-0
11/04/26HLOU Vs H&W Welders2-0
04/04/26AAnnagh United Vs LOU1-1
28/03/26HLOU Vs Limavady United0-1

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HMP Vs Armagh City1-0
22/08/26AAnnagh United Vs MP2-0
15/08/26HMP Vs Ballinamallard United2-0
11/08/26HMP Vs Strabane Athletic1-3
08/08/26ADundela Vs MP2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Loughgall
Loughgall
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWD1.46
HomeLLWDD1.69
AwayDLWDW1.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%46%25%
AVG goals2.622.882.33
Over 1.5 %76%85%67%
Over 2.5 %50%58%42%
Over 3.5 %28%31%25%
Scored1.401.651.12
Conceded1.221.231.21
BTTS62%65%58%
Clean Sheet28%27%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLW1.40
HomeLWW2.00
AwayDL0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%67%0%
AVG goals2.602.333.00
Over 1.5 %80%67%100%
Over 2.5 %40%33%50%
Over 3.5 %40%33%50%
Scored1.201.331.00
Conceded1.401.002.00
BTTS40%33%50%
Clean Sheet40%67%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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