Loughgall is expected to emerge victorious in this Northern-Ireland: Championship match against Newington Youth. The home side's recent form is notable, having come off a win, with a last score of 3-1 against Rathfriland. Conversely, Newington Youth is on a 2-game winning run but faces a tough test against a strong Loughgall side.
The model predicts a 47% chance of a home win, 26% for a draw, and 27% for an away win. A total of 3.0 goals is expected, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1 with a probability of 12.1%.
Loughgall has been scoring 1.64 goals at home and conceding 0.82 goals, while Newington Youth scores 2 goals on average when playing away against similar opponents, conceding 1.88 goals.
The model's selection is Over 1.5 with an 80.9% probability. Additionally, the model suggests the following selections: Home win (47%), Draw (26%), and Away win (27%).
Results analysis
The draw between Loughgall and Newington Youth is a major upset, as Loughgall's recent form had been on the rise, extending their run of four draws in a row. The win would have been a significant boost to their home form, which has seen them average 1.73 goals scored per game. However, in the end, the match ended 2-2, leaving the pre-match favourite, Loughgall, with a disappointing result. Unfortunately, the model's selection, home win, did not come through, as the model's call was incorrect. The model's selection had a pre-match probability of 47%. The model's selection of over 1.5 goals hit, with an 80.9% probability of occurrence.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Loughgall win✗ Miss
46.6%
Avg Implied 41.4% · @ 2.19
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.24
Unibet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
Draw✓ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.42
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Betano
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Newington Youth win✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied 32.2% · @ 2.81
Edge
-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.90
1xBet
2.88
Superbet
2.85
Betano
2.85
Marathonbet
2.82
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Loughgall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.93
1.59
0.94
0.92
0.92
vs Stronger (6)
2.00
0.67
2.75
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.06
1.19
1.25
1.25
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.62
1.20
0.60
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newington Youth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.73
2.28
1.56
1.92
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.76
1.81
1.85
1.69
1.62
2.00
vs Weaker (9)
3.00
1.56
3.40
1.20
2.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.9%
@ 1.15+2.1%
Under 1.5
19.1%
@ 4.28-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Under
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Superbet
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.2%
@ 1.57-1.2%
Under 2.5
42.8%
@ 2.21+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.58
BetVictor
1.57
Under
Bet365
2.30
BetVictor
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.19
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.8%
@ 2.36-3.8%
Under 3.5
65.2%
@ 1.48+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.43
1xBet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Under
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.0%
@ 1.49-1.6%
No
40.0%
@ 2.39+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.53
William Hil
1.50
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
No
Unibet
2.50
BetVictor
2.45
Superbet
2.42
1xBet
2.39
Bet365
2.38
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%@ 6.62+5.8%
2-1
9.4%@ 8.33+4.4%
1-0
7.6%@ 9.58+3.2%
2-0
7.4%@ 11.50+3.8%
1-2
7.0%@ 9.25+2.5%
0-0
6.2%@ 13.33+3.0%
2-2 ✓
6.0%@ 10.50+2.0%
3-1
5.4%@ 14.17+2.4%
Loughgall goals ↓
Newington Youth goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
5.4%
4.1%
1.7%
0.6%
1
7.6%
12%
7.0%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.4%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.2%
5.4%
3.4%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.8%
2.3%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Loughgall goals (down), columns = Newington Youth goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Loughgall is 0.80 points worse than Newington Youth in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 2.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Loughgall is 0.80 goals worse than Newington Youth in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 2.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Loughgall is 0.40 goals worse than Newington Youth in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Loughgall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.40
0.59
0.35
0.54
0.46
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.17
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.62
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.12
0.40
0.20
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newington Youth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.83
1.22
0.78
0.42
0.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.86
0.92
0.85
0.38
0.88
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
0.78
2.00
0.60
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Loughgall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
1.00
0.59
0.38
0.46
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.56
0.62
0.75
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.50
0.80
0.40
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Newington Youth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newington Youth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.90
1.06
0.78
1.50
1.08
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.95
0.92
0.85
1.25
1.12
vs Weaker (9)
1.67
0.78
1.40
0.60
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newington Youth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →
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H&W Welders
Glenavon FC
Queen's University
Annagh United
Newry City AFC
Ards
Warrenpoint Town
Moyola Park
Ballinamallard United
Institute
Dundela
Strabane Athletic
Armagh City
Rathfriland