The model favours a home win, with Loughgall holding a 42% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and a 31% chance of New ry City AFC taking the points. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, and the most likely total is two goals, a 24% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.5% chance. Loughgall’s home form shows an average of 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded against similar opposition, while New ry City AFC, on the road, averages 0.5 goals scored and 3.25 conceded to comparable teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Under 6.5 (96.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.3%), Under 5.5 (92.2%), Home +2 handicap (85.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (84.5%) and Under 4.5 (82.5%). Loughgall’s recent unbeaten run (DWDDW) and a 3-3 draw with Warrenpoint Town, coupled with New ry City’s win-loving streak (WLWLW) and a 3-1 victory over Institute, set the stage for a tightly contested match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Loughgall win
41.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC win
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Loughgall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.00
1.71
1.06
1.00
0.92
vs Stronger (6)
2.00
0.67
2.75
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.12
1.25
1.25
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
1.00
1.60
1.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newry City AFC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.93
1.00
1.67
1.07
2.20
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
1.79
0.62
1.62
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (7)
1.00
2.86
1.67
2.33
0.50
3.25
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
1.44
1.25
1.25
1.20
1.60
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.3%
Under 2.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.9%
Under 3.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.1%
No
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.7%
1-0
7.3%
2-0
6.7%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
6.1%
0-1
6.0%
Loughgall goals ↓
Newry City AFC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
6.0%
4.8%
2.2%
0.7%
1
7.3%
12%
7.7%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.7%
9.0%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
3
3.5%
4.8%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.4%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Loughgall goals (down), columns = Newry City AFC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Loughgall and Newry City AFC are level in average points per game (both 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Loughgall is 0.60 goals better than Newry City AFC in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Loughgall is 0.40 goals better than Newry City AFC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Loughgall or Draw
68.5%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
31%
covers Loughgall + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Loughgall or Newry City AFC
73.3%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
31%
covers Loughgall + Newry City AFC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Newry City AFC
58.2%
Avg Implied -
42%
27%
31%
covers Draw + Newry City AFC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Loughgall over/under 0.5
Over
79.5%
Under
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5
Over
47.1%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5
Over
74.2%
Under
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5
Over
39.2%
Under
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Loughgall, so a minus line means Loughgall give that many goals of a start and Newry City AFC receive them. At -1, Loughgall must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Loughgall win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Loughgall)
Loughgall -2
8.8%
Draw -2
12.9%
Newry City AFC +2
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Loughgall)
Loughgall -1
21.7%
Draw -1
20.1%
Newry City AFC +1
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Loughgall)
Loughgall +1
68.5%
Draw +1
17.0%
Newry City AFC -1
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Loughgall)
Loughgall +2
85.5%
Draw +2
9.4%
Newry City AFC -2
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Loughgall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.59
0.41
0.54
0.54
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.17
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.71
0.50
0.62
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.14
0.60
0.20
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newry City AFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.73
0.93
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.00
0.38
1.25
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.86
1.33
0.67
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.56
1.00
0.50
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Loughgall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
1.12
0.65
0.46
0.38
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.41
0.75
0.62
0.44
0.22
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.86
1.00
0.80
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newry City AFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.10
0.27
0.73
0.60
1.47
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.79
0.25
0.38
0.83
1.33
vs Similar (7)
0.29
2.00
0.33
1.67
0.25
2.25
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.89
0.25
0.75
0.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →
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Newington Youth
H&W Welders
Glenavon FC
Queen's University
Annagh United
Ards
Warrenpoint Town
Moyola Park
Ballinamallard United
Institute
Dundela
Strabane Athletic
Armagh City
Rathfriland