Lovćen’s defensive record at home is fragile, conceding 1.43 goals on average while scoring only 0.29, and the team is coming off a win that ended a streak of mixed results. Berane, however, has been a solid away side, averaging 1.25 goals scored and just 0.25 conceded against similar opposition, despite a recent string of losses. The model favours an away win, with probabilities of 27 % for a home victory, 33 % for a draw, and 40 % for Berane to triumph. The expected total of 2.1 goals points to a tight, low-scoring encounter, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.7 % chance. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.6 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.2 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1 %), Under 5.5 (98.1 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4 %), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1 %).
Results analysis
Lovćen’s 2-game winning run at home was interrupted when Berane, fresh from five straight defeats, snatched a 3-2 victory. The pre-match favourite, Berane, had a 40% chance of triumph, yet the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%), Under 5.5 (98.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.0%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.5%) and Away under 3.5 goals (96.9%). The final score of 3-2 confirmed a home win, overturning the predicted away success.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lovćen win✓ Hit
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Berane win✗ Miss
40.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lovćen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.37
0.75
1.25
1.43
1.50
vs Stronger (18)
1.50
1.17
1.11
1.11
1.89
1.22
vs Similar (12)
0.42
1.67
0.29
1.43
0.60
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Berane) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Berane
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.23
1.06
1.50
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (21)
1.00
1.24
1.00
1.27
1.00
1.20
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.22
1.20
2.00
1.25
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.7%
Under 1.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
34.4%
Under 2.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
15.7%
Under 3.5
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.5%
No
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
13.9%
0-1
13.2%
1-0
10.1%
0-2
8.5%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
6.1%
2-0
5.2%
Lovćen goals ↓
Berane goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
13%
8.5%
3.3%
1.0%
1
10%
15%
7.7%
3.0%
0.9%
2
5.2%
6.1%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
3
1.6%
1.9%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lovćen goals (down), columns = Berane goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Jedinstvo
2.36
Grbalj
1.86
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.78
Kom
1.39
Berane
1.39
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.34
Lovćen
1.33
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.31
Mogren
1.25
Zeta
1.00
Lovćen is 0.06 points worse than Berane in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Jedinstvo
2.18
Grbalj
1.75
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.42
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.42
Kom
1.31
Berane
1.25
Mogren
1.16
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.08
Lovćen
0.94
Zeta
0.50
Lovćen is 0.31 goals worse than Berane in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Zeta
0.50
Jedinstvo
0.73
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.94
Berane
1.00
Grbalj
1.17
Kom
1.19
Lovćen
1.25
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.28
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.29
Mogren
1.39
Lovćen is 0.25 goals worse than Berane in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lovćen or Draw✓ Hit
59.9%
Avg Implied -
27%
33%
40%
covers Lovćen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lovćen or Berane✓ Hit
67.5%
Avg Implied -
27%
33%
40%
covers Lovćen + Berane
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Berane✗ Miss
72.6%
Avg Implied -
27%
33%
40%
covers Draw + Berane
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lovćen over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
59.9%
Under
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
23.3%
Under
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.7%
Under
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
32.3%
Under
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lovćen, so a minus line means Lovćen give that many goals of a start and Berane receive them. At -1, Lovćen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lovćen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lovćen)Actual: Berane
Lovćen -2
2.6%
Draw -2
7.4%
Berane +2
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Lovćen)Actual: Draw
Lovćen -1
10.0%
Draw -1
17.4%
Berane +1
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Lovćen)Actual: Lovćen
Lovćen +1
59.9%
Draw +1
22.5%
Berane -1
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Lovćen)Actual: Lovćen
Lovćen +2
82.4%
Draw +2
11.9%
Berane -2
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lovćen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (18)
0.50
0.56
0.44
0.44
0.56
0.67
vs Similar (12)
0.17
0.75
0.00
0.57
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Berane) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Berane
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.47
0.38
0.69
0.43
0.21
vs Stronger (21)
0.38
0.43
0.36
0.55
0.40
0.30
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.56
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.5%
Under 0.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
28.9%
Under 1.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
9.2%
Under 2.5
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lovćen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.7%
Under
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.8%
Under
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lovćen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.50
0.75
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (18)
1.00
0.61
0.67
0.67
1.33
0.56
vs Similar (12)
0.25
0.92
0.29
0.86
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Berane) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Berane
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.69
0.81
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (21)
0.62
0.81
0.64
0.73
0.60
0.90
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.67
0.80
1.00
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.8%
Under 0.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.9%
Under 1.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.3%
Under 2.5
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lovćen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.2%
Under
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Berane over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (17)
€1m
GRB (2)
€0m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Lovćen and Berane have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Lovćen and Berane have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (10)
€1m
R( (2)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Lovćen and Berane have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Montenegro: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Mladost Lješkopolje
Zeta
Mogren
Grbalj
Kom
Iskra (Montenegro)
Jedinstvo
Rudar (Montenegro)