Loznica's defensive solidity has been on display in recent matches, with the team unbeaten in their last 5 games, including a scoreless draw against Dubočica. However, Borac Cacak has shown some resilience in their away form, scoring 1.67 goals per game against similar opponents.
The model predicts a low-scoring match, with the expected total goals standing at 2.1. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 14.5%.
Loznica's home scoring has averaged 1.1 goals per game, while their home defense has conceded just 0.5 goals on average. Borac Cacak's away scoring has averaged 1.67 goals, but their away defense has conceded 1.33 goals per game. The model's selection is Under 3.5, with a probability of 84.0%.
The model's favoured match result is a home win, with a probability of 46.0%. The model's selection of Under 3.5 is the most likely outcome, with a home win percentage of 46%, a draw percentage of 31%, and an away win percentage of 22%.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Borac Cacak emerged victorious on the road, claiming a 2-3 win over Loznica. This victory extends Borac Cacak's 2-game winning run, as they bounced back from a 2-3 loss to Loznica in their previous encounter. Loznica's winless streak continues, coming off a defeat in their last outing. The pre-match favourite was Loznica, with a 47% chance of winning, but the model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was an Away win. The model's selection of Loznica Home win had a pre-match probability of 47%. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals missed, with an 83.5% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Loznica win✗ Miss
47.1%
Avg Implied 37.7% · @ 2.39
Edge
+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.50
1xBet
2.41
Betfair
2.40
Dafabet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.39
Draw✗ Miss
31.1%
Avg Implied 31.4% · @ 2.88
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.10
BetVictor
2.90
Betfair
2.90
Betano
2.87
10Bet
2.85
Borac Cacak win✓ Hit
21.8%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 2.93
Edge
-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.05
1xBet
3.03
BetVictor
3.00
Marathonbet
2.96
Betano
2.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Loznica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.63
1.13
0.47
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.10
0.66
1.21
0.50
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Cacak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borac Cacak
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.83
0.73
0.40
1.53
1.27
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.14
0.89
0.69
0.46
1.53
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Loznica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.8%
@ 1.47+1.4%
Under 1.5
36.2%
@ 2.45-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.60
BetVictor
2.45
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.44
Betano
2.32
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.6%
@ 2.40-2.5%
Under 2.5
64.4%
@ 1.48+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.45
1xBet
2.43
Marathonbet
2.43
Betfair
2.40
Under
BetVictor
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.5%
@ 4.90-2.1%
Under 3.5
83.5%
@ 1.12+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.75
Under
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.8%
@ 2.04-3.2%
No
58.2%
@ 1.67+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
2.10
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Betfair
2.00
No
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.66
BetVictor
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.5%@ 6.05+7.5%
1-1
14.0%@ 5.75+6.7%
0-0
13.3%@ 6.26+6.6%
2-0
10.3%@ 9.90+6.1%
0-1
8.5%@ 6.70+2.2%
2-1
8.3%@ 9.60+4.0%
1-2
5.2%@ 10.40+1.1%
3-0
4.5%@ 21.80+2.6%
Loznica goals ↓
Borac Cacak goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
8.5%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
1
14%
14%
5.2%
1.4%
0.3%
2
10%
8.3%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
3
4.5%
3.6%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.5%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Loznica goals (down), columns = Borac Cacak goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Loznica is 1.33 points worse than Borac Cacak in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Loznica is 0.67 goals worse than Borac Cacak in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Loznica and Borac Cacak are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Loznica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.23
0.47
0.13
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.45
0.24
0.50
0.14
0.40
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
80% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Cacak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borac Cacak
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.13
0.27
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.39
0.61
0.08
0.31
0.67
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Loznica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Loznica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Cacak over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Cacak over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Cacak over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Loznica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.66
0.41
0.71
0.36
0.60
0.47
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Cacak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Borac Cacak
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.27
0.60
0.13
0.87
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.29
0.62
0.15
0.87
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Loznica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Loznica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Cacak over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Cacak over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Cacak over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
83.5%
1.12
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
+2.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (24)
€10m
NAP (24)
€7m
JAV (21)
€5m
FSZ (21)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
OB1 (17)
€2m
DUB (17)
€1m
TEL (7)
€1m
Loznica and Borac Cacak have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (9)
€5m
JAV (9)
€2m
NAP (9)
€2m
FSZ (8)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
OB1 (6)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Loznica and Borac Cacak have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (4)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
JAV (2)
€1m
FSZ (4)
€1m
NAP (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
OB1 (3)
€0m
TEL (1)
€0m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
Loznica and Borac Cacak have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (12)
€5m
TBT (11)
€4m
JAV (10)
€3m
FSZ (9)
€2m
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
OB1 (8)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Loznica and Borac Cacak have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →