Defensive solidity will shape the low-scoring encounter, with Loznica averaging 0.46 goals conceded at home and Semendrija 1924 conceding 1.07 on the road. The model favours a home win, giving Loznica a 38% chance, a 35% draw probability and 27% for an away victory. The expected total of 1.8 goals points to a tight match, and the most likely scoreline is 0-0 with a 17.5% probability. The single most probable total number of goals is two, with a 28% chance. Loznica’s home form shows 1.23 goals scored against similar opposition, while Semendrija’s away form registers 1.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Under 5.5 (98.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 4.5 (96.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.2%) and Home under 2.5 goals (91.6%). The model’s selection reflects a tight, defensively dominated game.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Loznica win
38.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
35.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 win
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Loznica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.67
1.07
0.40
1.20
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.21
0.71
1.23
0.46
1.20
0.93
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Semendrija 1924) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Semendrija 1924
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.07
2.20
1.07
1.07
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.59
1.07
2.15
1.08
1.07
1.07
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
2.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Loznica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.5%
Under 1.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.4%
Under 2.5
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
11.1%
Under 3.5
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
36.4%
No
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.6%
1-0
15.3%
1-1
14.5%
0-1
11.6%
2-0
8.4%
2-1
6.7%
1-2
5.3%
0-2
5.2%
Loznica goals ↓
Semendrija 1924 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
12%
5.2%
1.4%
0.3%
1
15%
15%
5.3%
1.4%
0.3%
2
8.4%
6.7%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
3
2.9%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.7%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Loznica goals (down), columns = Semendrija 1924 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Loznica is 0.83 points worse than Semendrija 1924 in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Loznica is 0.50 goals worse than Semendrija 1924 in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Loznica is 0.17 goals worse than Semendrija 1924 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Loznica or Draw
73.6%
Avg Implied -
39%
35%
26%
covers Loznica + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Loznica or Semendrija 1924
65.0%
Avg Implied -
39%
35%
26%
covers Loznica + Semendrija 1924
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Semendrija 1924
61.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
35%
26%
covers Draw + Semendrija 1924
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Loznica over/under 0.5
Over
63.9%
Under
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 1.5
Over
27.1%
Under
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 2.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 0.5
Over
54.9%
Under
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 1.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 2.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Loznica, so a minus line means Loznica give that many goals of a start and Semendrija 1924 receive them. At -1, Loznica must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Loznica win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Loznica)
Loznica -2
4.6%
Draw -2
11.0%
Semendrija 1924 +2
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Loznica)
Loznica -1
15.6%
Draw -1
23.0%
Semendrija 1924 +1
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Loznica)
Loznica +1
73.6%
Draw +1
17.7%
Semendrija 1924 -1
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Loznica)
Loznica +2
91.2%
Draw +2
6.7%
Semendrija 1924 -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Loznica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.20
0.53
0.13
0.47
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.54
0.21
0.62
0.15
0.47
0.27
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
83% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Semendrija 1924) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Semendrija 1924
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
1.13
0.27
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.37
0.92
0.31
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
2.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Loznica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Loznica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Loznica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.53
0.27
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.50
0.62
0.31
0.73
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Semendrija 1924) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Semendrija 1924
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.07
0.80
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.70
1.23
0.77
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Loznica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Loznica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Semendrija 1924 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (24)
€10m
NAP (24)
€7m
JAV (21)
€5m
FSZ (21)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
OB1 (17)
€2m
DUB (17)
€1m
TEL (7)
€1m
Loznica and Semendrija 1924 have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (9)
€5m
JAV (9)
€2m
NAP (9)
€2m
FSZ (8)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
OB1 (6)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Loznica and Semendrija 1924 have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (4)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
JAV (2)
€1m
FSZ (4)
€1m
NAP (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
OB1 (3)
€0m
TEL (1)
€0m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
Loznica and Semendrija 1924 have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (12)
€5m
TBT (11)
€4m
JAV (10)
€3m
FSZ (9)
€2m
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
OB1 (8)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Loznica and Semendrija 1924 have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Cacak
TSC Backa Topola
OFK Vršac
Javor
Dubočica
Napredak
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FK Vozdovac
Teleoptik
OFK Bor 1919
Naftagas
Metalac GM
Jedinstvo Ub
Grafičar