Loznica are the clear favourites, with the model rating a 63% chance of a home win, 23% for a draw and 14% for Teleoptik to triumph. The 63% figure reflects the home side’s advantage at a venue where opponents are weaker, while Teleoptik’s away form against stronger teams shows a 2.0 average of goals scored and 2.67 conceded, signalling vulnerability. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 25%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Lozenica, a 11.9% chance. Lozenica’s home form shows no goals scored or conceded on average against weaker sides, whereas Teleoptik’s away form indicates a high-scoring outing. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.5%), Home +2 handicap (95.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.0%) and Home under 2.5 HT goals (94.8%). Lozenica’s recent draw, coming off a 0-0 stalemate, and Teleoptik’s draw, after a 1-1 result, underline the tightness of the contest, but the model’s probabilities point decisively to a Lozenica victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Loznica win
62.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik win
14.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Loznica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.67
1.07
0.40
1.20
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.21
0.71
1.23
0.46
1.20
0.93
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Teleoptik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teleoptik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.17
0.67
1.67
2.00
2.67
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
2.17
0.67
1.67
2.00
2.67
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-33pp vs league)
This opponent (Loznica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.8%
Under 1.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.6%
Under 2.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.4%
Under 3.5
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.0%
1-0
11.4%
1-1
11.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
7.7%
0-0
7.5%
3-1
6.3%
0-1
4.3%
Loznica goals ↓
Teleoptik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
4.3%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
4.1%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.8%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
7.7%
6.3%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
4
3.7%
3.0%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Loznica goals (down), columns = Teleoptik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Loznica is 0.33 points better than Teleoptik in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Loznica and Teleoptik are level in goals scored per game (both 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Loznica is 1.00 goals better than Teleoptik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Loznica or Draw
85.8%
Avg Implied -
62%
23%
14%
covers Loznica + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Loznica or Teleoptik
76.6%
Avg Implied -
62%
23%
14%
covers Loznica + Teleoptik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Teleoptik
37.5%
Avg Implied -
62%
23%
14%
covers Draw + Teleoptik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Loznica over/under 0.5
Over
85.4%
Under
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 1.5
Over
57.3%
Under
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 2.5
Over
30.3%
Under
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 3.5
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 0.5
Over
55.7%
Under
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 1.5
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 2.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Loznica, so a minus line means Loznica give that many goals of a start and Teleoptik receive them. At -1, Loznica must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Loznica win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Loznica)
Loznica -2
18.8%
Draw -2
19.6%
Teleoptik +2
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Loznica)
Loznica -1
38.4%
Draw -1
24.1%
Teleoptik +1
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Loznica)
Loznica +1
85.8%
Draw +1
9.6%
Teleoptik -1
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Loznica)
Loznica +2
95.4%
Draw +2
3.5%
Teleoptik -2
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Loznica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.20
0.53
0.13
0.47
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.54
0.21
0.62
0.15
0.47
0.27
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
83% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Teleoptik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teleoptik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.17
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Loznica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.4%
Under 0.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.3%
Under 1.5
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.9%
Under 2.5
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Loznica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
58.0%
Under
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.8%
Under
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Loznica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.53
0.27
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.50
0.62
0.31
0.73
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Teleoptik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teleoptik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.33
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Loznica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.1%
Under 0.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.3%
Under 1.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.0%
Under 2.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Loznica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.6%
Under
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loznica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.9%
Under
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teleoptik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (24)
€10m
NAP (24)
€7m
JAV (21)
€5m
FSZ (21)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
OB1 (17)
€2m
DUB (17)
€1m
TEL (7)
€1m
Loznica's squad is €3m more valuable than Teleoptik's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (9)
€5m
JAV (9)
€2m
NAP (9)
€2m
FSZ (8)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
OB1 (6)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Loznica and Teleoptik have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (4)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
JAV (2)
€1m
FSZ (4)
€1m
NAP (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
OB1 (3)
€0m
TEL (1)
€0m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
Loznica and Teleoptik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (12)
€5m
TBT (11)
€4m
JAV (10)
€3m
FSZ (9)
€2m
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
OB1 (8)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Loznica's defence is €1m more valuable than Teleoptik's (€2m vs €0m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Borac Cacak
Semendrija 1924
TSC Backa Topola
OFK Vršac
Javor
Dubočica
Napredak
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FK Vozdovac
OFK Bor 1919
Naftagas
Metalac GM
Jedinstvo Ub
Grafičar