The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.3 goals and a most likely total of three. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.7% probability. Ludogorets II, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.88 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Etar Veliko Tarnovo on the road averages 1.21 scored and 1.71 conceded. The favoured result is a home win, with a 50% chance, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 26%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.0%, Under 6.5 at 94.9%, Home +2 handicap at 88.3%, Under 5.5 at 88.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 86.8%, Home over 0.5 goals at 85.6%, and Over 1.5 at 85.2%. Both sides are coming off draws - Ludogorets II 1-1 against Hebar 1918 and Etar 2-2 against Beroe - suggesting a competitive but offensively open match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ludogorets II win
54.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo win
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ludogorets II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.10
2.00
1.33
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.16
1.88
1.50
0.55
0.91
vs Weaker (11)
1.64
1.00
2.14
1.14
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Etar Veliko Tarnovo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.43
1.81
1.06
1.21
1.86
vs Stronger (3)
2.00
2.33
3.00
1.00
1.50
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.48
1.33
1.73
1.07
1.17
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.0%
Under 1.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.4%
Under 2.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.8%
Under 3.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.2%
No
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
1-2
6.1%
1-0
5.7%
3-0
4.9%
Ludogorets II goals ↓
Etar Veliko Tarnovo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
3.3%
2.9%
1.3%
0.4%
1
5.7%
9.8%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
2
6.9%
9.4%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.9%
6.6%
4.5%
2.0%
0.7%
4
2.6%
3.5%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ludogorets II goals (down), columns = Etar Veliko Tarnovo goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Ludogorets II is 0.43 points worse than Etar Veliko Tarnovo in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Ludogorets II is 1.14 goals worse than Etar Veliko Tarnovo in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Ludogorets II is 0.43 goals better than Etar Veliko Tarnovo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ludogorets II or Draw
76.6%
Avg Implied -
54%
23%
23%
covers Ludogorets II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
77.4%
Avg Implied -
54%
23%
23%
covers Ludogorets II + Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo
46.0%
Avg Implied -
54%
23%
23%
covers Draw + Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5
Over
87.9%
Under
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5
Over
62.4%
Under
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5
Over
35.4%
Under
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 3.5
Over
16.4%
Under
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 0.5
Over
74.3%
Under
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 1.5
Over
39.4%
Under
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 2.5
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ludogorets II, so a minus line means Ludogorets II give that many goals of a start and Etar Veliko Tarnovo receive them. At -1, Ludogorets II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ludogorets II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ludogorets II)
Ludogorets II -2
16.6%
Draw -2
16.5%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo +2
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ludogorets II)
Ludogorets II -1
33.1%
Draw -1
20.9%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo +1
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ludogorets II)
Ludogorets II +1
76.6%
Draw +1
13.1%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo -1
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ludogorets II)
Ludogorets II +2
89.7%
Draw +2
6.8%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo -2
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ludogorets II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
1.20
0.80
0.27
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.58
1.12
0.88
0.18
0.36
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.64
1.29
0.71
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Etar Veliko Tarnovo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.62
0.56
0.36
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.70
0.53
0.53
0.42
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ludogorets II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.80
0.53
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.58
0.75
0.62
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.36
0.86
0.43
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Etar Veliko Tarnovo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.63
1.19
0.50
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.00
0.63
1.20
0.53
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Etar Veliko Tarnovo · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joachim Carcela-Gonzalez33%
Martin Toshev33%
Ivan Vasilev30%
Didis Lutumba-Pitah10%
Martin Moran9%
Dimo Bakalov0%
Nikolay Yankov0%
Martin Nikolov0%
Valeri Hristov0%
Georgi Angelov0%
Kolyo Stanev0%
Krum Stoyanov0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Lovre Knežević0%
Kelyan Guessoum0%
Josecarlos van Rankin0%
Ivailo Dimitrov0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Chahreddine Boukholda0%
Aleksandar Mishov0%
Gorka Larrucea0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Kristijan Sekulic0%
Jaisen Clifford0%
Jean-Marc Tiboué0%
Georgi Aleksandrov0%
Moses Enokela Candidus0%
Luis Mario Córdova Mina0%
Atanas Atanasov0%
Serigne Mbacke Faye0%
Radoslav Naydenov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gorka Larrucea50%
Martin Moran36%
Joachim Carcela-Gonzalez33%
Valeri Hristov33%
Krum Stoyanov33%
Martin Toshev33%
Luis Mario Córdova Mina33%
Josecarlos van Rankin29%
Dimo Bakalov25%
Yanko Angelov25%
Kelyan Guessoum25%
Ivan Vasilev20%
Kolyo Stanev20%
Kristijan Sekulic20%
Jean-Marc Tiboué20%
Georgi Aleksandrov17%
Moses Enokela Candidus17%
Nikolay Yankov14%
Martin Nikolov11%
Lovre Knežević11%
Georgi Angelov0%
Didis Lutumba-Pitah0%
Ivailo Dimitrov0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Chahreddine Boukholda0%
Aleksandar Mishov0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Jaisen Clifford0%
Atanas Atanasov0%
Serigne Mbacke Faye0%
Radoslav Naydenov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nikolay Yankov14%
Didis Lutumba-Pitah10%
Jean-Marc Tiboué10%
Dimo Bakalov0%
Joachim Carcela-Gonzalez0%
Martin Nikolov0%
Valeri Hristov0%
Georgi Angelov0%
Ivan Vasilev0%
Kolyo Stanev0%
Krum Stoyanov0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Lovre Knežević0%
Kelyan Guessoum0%
Josecarlos van Rankin0%
Ivailo Dimitrov0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Chahreddine Boukholda0%
Martin Toshev0%
Aleksandar Mishov0%
Gorka Larrucea0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Kristijan Sekulic0%
Jaisen Clifford0%
Martin Moran0%
Georgi Aleksandrov0%
Moses Enokela Candidus0%
Luis Mario Córdova Mina0%
Atanas Atanasov0%
Serigne Mbacke Faye0%
Radoslav Naydenov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joachim Carcela-Gonzalez11%
Ivan Vasilev10%
Didis Lutumba-Pitah10%
Dimo Bakalov0%
Nikolay Yankov0%
Martin Nikolov0%
Valeri Hristov0%
Georgi Angelov0%
Kolyo Stanev0%
Krum Stoyanov0%
Yanko Angelov0%
Lovre Knežević0%
Kelyan Guessoum0%
Josecarlos van Rankin0%
Ivailo Dimitrov0%
Martin Velichkov0%
Chahreddine Boukholda0%
Martin Toshev0%
Aleksandar Mishov0%
Gorka Larrucea0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Kristijan Sekulic0%
Jaisen Clifford0%
Jean-Marc Tiboué0%
Martin Moran0%
Georgi Aleksandrov0%
Moses Enokela Candidus0%
Luis Mario Córdova Mina0%
Atanas Atanasov0%
Serigne Mbacke Faye0%
Radoslav Naydenov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Ludogorets II's squad is €1m less valuable than Etar Veliko Tarnovo's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Ludogorets II and Etar Veliko Tarnovo have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Ludogorets II and Etar Veliko Tarnovo have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Ludogorets II and Etar Veliko Tarnovo have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Fratria
Yantra 2019
Montana
Beroe
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Nesebar
Marek
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Rilski Sportist
Hebar 1918
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad