The contest between Ludogorets II and Fratria is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home advantage is modest, Ludogorets II have scored 1.57 and conceded 1.43 against similar opposition, while Fratria, on a three-game winning streak, average 1.33 scored and 1.11 conceded away. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 24 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.8 % chance. Probabilities for the match outcome read 36 % home win, 27 % draw, 37 % away win, confirming the model’s pick. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.0 %), Under 6.5 (97.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.0 %), Under 5.5 (92.7 %), Under 4.5 (83.4 %), Away +2 handicap (82.8 %), and Home under 2.5 goals (82.7 %). These reflect the low-scoring nature expected in this evenly matched fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ludogorets II win
35.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fratria win
37.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ludogorets II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.10
2.00
1.33
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.16
1.88
1.50
0.55
0.91
vs Weaker (11)
1.64
1.00
2.14
1.14
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fratria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.87
2.00
0.87
1.27
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.55
0.95
1.92
0.92
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.62
2.33
0.67
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
43% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.2%
Under 2.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.8%
Under 3.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.3%
No
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
6.7%
1-0
6.6%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
6.2%
0-2
5.8%
Ludogorets II goals ↓
Fratria goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
6.7%
5.8%
2.9%
1.1%
1
6.6%
13%
8.5%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.6%
8.3%
6.2%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.7%
4.0%
3.0%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.0%
1.5%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ludogorets II goals (down), columns = Fratria goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Ludogorets II is 0.86 points worse than Fratria in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Ludogorets II is 0.57 goals worse than Fratria in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Ludogorets II is 0.57 goals worse than Fratria in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 0.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ludogorets II or Draw
62.8%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Ludogorets II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II or Fratria
73.1%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Ludogorets II + Fratria
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Fratria
64.1%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Draw + Fratria
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5
Over
76.6%
Under
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5
Over
42.6%
Under
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 0.5
Over
77.3%
Under
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5
Over
43.6%
Under
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 3.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ludogorets II, so a minus line means Ludogorets II give that many goals of a start and Fratria receive them. At -1, Ludogorets II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ludogorets II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ludogorets II)
Ludogorets II -2
6.5%
Draw -2
10.9%
Fratria +2
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ludogorets II)
Ludogorets II -1
17.4%
Draw -1
18.5%
Fratria +1
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ludogorets II)
Ludogorets II +1
62.8%
Draw +1
18.9%
Fratria -1
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ludogorets II)
Ludogorets II +2
81.7%
Draw +2
11.3%
Fratria -2
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ludogorets II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
1.20
0.80
0.27
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.58
1.12
0.88
0.18
0.36
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.64
1.29
0.71
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fratria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.87
0.47
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.25
1.33
0.33
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ludogorets II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.80
0.53
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.58
0.75
0.62
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.36
0.86
0.43
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Fratria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fratria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
1.13
0.40
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.45
1.17
0.42
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.38
1.00
0.33
0.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fratria over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Ludogorets II's squad is €2m less valuable than Fratria's (€1m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Ludogorets II and Fratria have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Ludogorets II and Fratria have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Ludogorets II's defence is €1m less valuable than Fratria's (€0m vs €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →