Ludogorets II is the clear favourite to win this match, with a predicted 64% chance of success at home. The model's high rating for Ludogorets II is due in part to Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa's struggles on the road, where they have averaged just 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded against similar-strength opponents. Ludogorets II, on the other hand, has been in strong form at home, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding 1.45 goals per match.
The model predicts a 20% chance of a draw and a 16% chance of a Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win. The expected total number of goals in this match is 3.5, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The most likely score is 2-1 to Ludogorets II, with a probability of 9.5%.
The model's selection is the Home win, with a 64% chance of success. Other suggested picks include the Over 1.5 goal line, which is the model's selection with a 87.6% probability and a 17% edge.
Results analysis
Ludogorets II's win extends their 3-game winning run, with the last two victories coming against Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and Fratria. The actual result was a home win, as predicted by the Pythia model, which correctly called Ludogorets II as the favourite with a 64% probability of winning. The final score was 2-1, aligning with the model's most likely score predictions. The model's selection of Ludogorets II to win hit the mark. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals also came in, with a 87.6% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ludogorets II win✓ Hit
63.8%
Avg Implied 58.9% · @ 1.52
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.56
William Hil
1.55
BetVictor
1.53
888Sport
1.53
Draw✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.67
Edge
-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.98
Marathonbet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Superbet
3.85
Dafabet
3.80
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win✗ Miss
16.2%
Avg Implied 16.8% · @ 5.33
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
6.40
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
1xBet
5.61
Dafabet
5.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ludogorets II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.30
1.93
1.40
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.05
1.43
1.70
1.50
0.45
1.36
vs Weaker (9)
1.67
1.00
2.40
1.20
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.70
1.00
1.20
1.07
2.20
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
2.38
0.25
1.50
0.50
3.25
vs Similar (22)
1.27
1.45
1.27
1.09
1.27
1.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.6%
@ 1.29+17.0%
Under 1.5
12.4%
@ 3.10-17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.27
Under
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.14
Marathonbet
3.14
Unibet
3.05
Pinnacle
3.04
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.5%
@ 1.98+22.1%
Under 2.5
31.5%
@ 1.72-22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Betfair
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Superbet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.1%
@ 3.48+20.9%
Under 3.5
52.9%
@ 1.23-20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.60
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Unibet
3.35
Under
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.9%
@ 2.00+17.1%
No
37.1%
@ 1.69-17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.12
BetVictor
2.05
William Hil
2.00
Betfair
2.00
888Sport
2.00
No
Unibet
1.74
Betfair
1.70
1xBet
1.70
William Hil
1.70
888Sport
1.70
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
9.5%@ 7.38+4.3%
1-1
8.8%@ 6.65+3.0%
2-0
8.3%@ 6.14+1.9%
3-1
7.6%@ 12.40+4.4%
3-0
6.6%@ 10.12+2.7%
1-0
6.2%@ 5.35-1.1%
2-2
5.5%@ 17.30+3.3%
1-2
4.6%@ 16.25+2.2%
Ludogorets II goals ↓
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
2.6%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
1
6.2%
8.8%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
2
8.3%
9.5%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.6%
7.6%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
4
3.9%
4.5%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ludogorets II goals (down), columns = Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Yantra 2019
2.00
Fratria
1.97
Vihren
1.81
CSKA Sofia II
1.72
Beroe
1.71
Dobrudzha
1.61
Montana
1.55
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.44
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.38
Nesebar
1.36
Rilski Sportist
1.36
Ludogorets II
1.28
Marek
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.25
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.09
Sportist Svoge
1.06
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
Ludogorets II is 0.25 points better than Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fratria
1.91
Vihren
1.84
CSKA Sofia II
1.78
Beroe
1.57
Dobrudzha
1.49
Montana
1.43
Yantra 2019
1.41
Ludogorets II
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.28
Nesebar
1.26
Rilski Sportist
1.26
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.22
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.16
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
Sportist Svoge
0.88
Marek
0.84
Ludogorets II is 0.25 goals better than Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Yantra 2019
0.75
Fratria
0.91
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Beroe
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.06
Vihren
1.06
Marek
1.09
Montana
1.11
Nesebar
1.26
Rilski Sportist
1.26
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.28
Ludogorets II
1.34
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.34
Spartak Pleven
1.41
Sportist Svoge
1.50
Hebar 1918
1.59
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.62
Ludogorets II is 0.28 goals better than Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ludogorets II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
1.07
0.80
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.71
1.00
0.90
0.18
0.55
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.56
1.20
0.60
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.53
0.53
0.53
1.27
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.77
0.64
0.55
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ludogorets II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.87
0.60
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.71
0.70
0.60
0.27
0.82
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.44
1.20
0.60
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.47
0.67
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.12
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.68
0.64
0.55
0.55
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.6%
1.29
888Sport
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.27
+17.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BER (37)
€11m
CSI (46)
€9m
LI (41)
€9m
DOB (38)
€8m
MON (42)
€6m
FRA (39)
€4m
H1 (46)
€4m
Y2 (30)
€4m
VIH (39)
€3m
PB (39)
€3m
EVT (38)
€3m
C1B (33)
€3m
MAR (39)
€2m
LGO (37)
€2m
SP (34)
€2m
SS (41)
€2m
Ludogorets II's squad is €7m more valuable than Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa's (€9m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BER (0)
€0m
C1B (0)
€0m
CSI (0)
€0m
DOB (0)
€0m
EVT (0)
€0m
FRA (0)
€0m
H1 (0)
€0m
LGO (0)
€0m
LI (0)
€0m
MAR (0)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
PB (0)
€0m
SP (0)
€0m
SS (0)
€0m
VIH (0)
€0m
Y2 (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BER (0)
€0m
C1B (0)
€0m
CSI (0)
€0m
DOB (0)
€0m
EVT (0)
€0m
FRA (0)
€0m
H1 (0)
€0m
LGO (0)
€0m
LI (0)
€0m
MAR (0)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
PB (0)
€0m
SP (0)
€0m
SS (0)
€0m
VIH (0)
€0m
Y2 (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BER (0)
€0m
C1B (0)
€0m
CSI (0)
€0m
DOB (0)
€0m
EVT (0)
€0m
FRA (0)
€0m
H1 (0)
€0m
LGO (0)
€0m
LI (0)
€0m
MAR (0)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
PB (0)
€0m
SP (0)
€0m
SS (0)
€0m
VIH (0)
€0m
Y2 (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 14. Games History
H2H record
4 previous meetings
3
LI wins
0
Draws
1
LGO wins
Head-to-head
Ludogorets II vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa · H/A from LI
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
CSKA Sofia II
Fratria
Nesebar
Vihren
Yantra 2019
Spartak Pleven
Montana
Marek
Beroe
Hebar 1918
Rilski Sportist
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad