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Ludogorets II vs Maritsa Plovdiv Result & Analysis

Date: 11/11/2023
Time: 12:30
Final 1-0
Ludogorets II
Ludogorets II
Vs
69%
21%
10%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
Bulgaria: Second League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ludogorets II win✓ Hit
69.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maritsa Plovdiv win✗ Miss
9.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ludogorets IILudogorets II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L10W00D01L02L12L31W20W41W04LA·MON14/08H·CHE21/08A·LIT28/08A·MAR01/09H·SPA17/09A·CSK23/09H·SPO28/09A·BDI21/10H·BEL27/10A·SPA07/11
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.101.790.931.121.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.331.171.910.820.851.46
vs Weaker (6)1.830.831.331.332.330.33
Clean sheet %33% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritsa Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Maritsa PlovdivMaritsa Plovdiv

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W02L01L01L13L10W01L12L01L10WH·BEL29/08A·SPA03/09H·MAR18/09H·DUN22/09A·SEP28/09H·DOB02/10A·STR08/10H·MON21/10A·CHE27/10H·LIT07/11
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.501.561.000.572.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)1.071.501.471.000.622.08
vs Weaker (2)1.501.503.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%016%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.9%
Under 2.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.7%
Under 3.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.7%
No
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.8%
1-0 ✓
12.4%
1-1
9.8%
3-0
9.6%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
7.3%
3-1
6.4%
4-0
5.0%
Ludogorets II goals ↓
Maritsa Plovdiv goals →
01234
07.3%3.4%1.4%0.3%0.1%
112%9.8%3.0%0.7%0.1%
214%9.3%3.1%0.7%0.1%
39.6%6.4%2.2%0.5%0.1%
45.0%3.3%1.1%0.3%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ludogorets II goals (down), columns = Maritsa Plovdiv goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Spartak Varna
2.12
Septemvri Sofia
1.91
Marek
1.79
Montana
1.68
Strumska Slava
1.50
Dobrudzha
1.47
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.47
Yantra 2019
1.38
Dunav Ruse
1.35
Spartak Pleven
1.32
Litex
1.32
Ludogorets II
1.29
Belasitsa
1.26
Sportist Svoge
1.18
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.12
Chernomorets Balchik
1.06
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.88
Bdin
0.65
Ludogorets II is 0.41 points better than Maritsa Plovdiv in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 0.88).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Spartak Varna
1.76
Septemvri Sofia
1.35
Montana
1.35
Dobrudzha
1.26
Yantra 2019
1.15
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.15
Ludogorets II
1.15
Belasitsa
1.09
Marek
1.06
Chernomorets Balchik
1.06
Sportist Svoge
1.06
Strumska Slava
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.97
Maritsa Plovdiv
0.91
Dunav Ruse
0.88
Litex
0.88
Spartak Pleven
0.85
Bdin
0.56
Ludogorets II is 0.24 goals better than Maritsa Plovdiv in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 0.91).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Marek
0.76
Septemvri Sofia
0.76
Spartak Varna
0.82
Strumska Slava
0.82
Montana
0.91
Spartak Pleven
0.94
Belasitsa
0.97
Dobrudzha
1.00
Dunav Ruse
1.06
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.06
Litex
1.06
Yantra 2019
1.09
Ludogorets II
1.15
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.21
Sportist Svoge
1.32
Chernomorets Balchik
1.44
Bdin
1.47
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.65
Ludogorets II is 0.50 goals better than Maritsa Plovdiv in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.65).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ludogorets IILudogorets II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D00D00D00D10W21W10W10W01LA·MON14/08H·CHE21/08A·LIT28/08A·MAR01/09H·SPA17/09A·CSK23/09H·SPO28/09A·BDI21/10H·BEL27/10A·SPA07/11
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.430.570.290.500.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.420.500.450.270.380.69
vs Weaker (6)1.000.171.000.331.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritsa Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Maritsa PlovdivMaritsa Plovdiv

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L01L01L12L00D00D10W00D00DH·BEL29/08A·SPA03/09H·MAR18/09H·DUN22/09A·SEP28/09H·DOB02/10A·STR08/10H·MON21/10A·CHE27/10H·LIT07/11
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.600.620.380.430.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.540.540.600.330.460.77
vs Weaker (2)0.501.501.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritsa Plovdiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritsa Plovdiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritsa Plovdiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ludogorets IILudogorets II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W00D01L02L02L10W10W31W03LA·MON14/08H·CHE21/08A·LIT28/08A·MAR01/09H·SPA17/09A·CSK23/09H·SPO28/09A·BDI21/10H·BEL27/10A·SPA07/11
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.671.210.640.620.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.920.671.450.550.460.77
vs Weaker (6)0.830.670.331.001.330.33
Clean sheet %50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritsa Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Maritsa PlovdivMaritsa Plovdiv

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L00D00D01L10W01L02L01L10WH·BEL29/08A·SPA03/09H·MAR18/09H·DUN22/09A·SEP28/09H·DOB02/10A·STR08/10H·MON21/10A·CHE27/10H·LIT07/11
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.900.940.620.141.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.540.960.870.670.151.31
vs Weaker (2)1.000.002.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritsa Plovdiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritsa Plovdiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritsa Plovdiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.9%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.570.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (22)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
C1B (19)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
DOB (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SV (11)
€3m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Y2 (10)
€2m
MAR (9)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
LI wins
0
Draws
1
MP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ludogorets II vs Maritsa Plovdiv · H/A from LI
DateH/AGameScore
31/03/23HLI Vs Maritsa Plovdiv5-0
27/08/22AMaritsa Plovdiv Vs LI2-0

Ludogorets IILudogorets II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/11/23ASpartak Varna Vs LI4-0
27/10/23HLI Vs Belasitsa4-1
21/10/23ABdin Vs LI0-2
28/09/23HLI Vs Sportist Svoge3-1
23/09/23ACSKA 1948 Sofia II Vs LI2-1
17/09/23HLI Vs Spartak Pleven0-2
01/09/23AMarek Vs LI1-0
28/08/23ALitex Vs LI0-0
21/08/23HLI Vs Chernomorets Balchik1-0
14/08/23AMontana Vs LI3-2

Maritsa PlovdivMaritsa Plovdiv

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/11/23HMP Vs Litex1-0
27/10/23AChernomorets Balchik Vs MP1-0
21/10/23HMP Vs Montana1-2
08/10/23AStrumska Slava Vs MP1-0
02/10/23HMP Vs Dobrudzha1-0
28/09/23ASeptemvri Sofia Vs MP3-1
22/09/23HMP Vs Dunav Ruse0-1
18/09/23HMP Vs Marek0-1
03/09/23ASpartak Varna Vs MP2-0
29/08/23HMP Vs Belasitsa2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ludogorets II
Ludogorets II
Bulgaria: Second League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWL1.54
HomeWWLWW2.22
AwayDLLWL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%65%28%
AVG goals2.352.352.36
Over 1.5 %62%61%64%
Over 2.5 %40%39%40%
Over 3.5 %25%26%24%
Scored1.231.650.84
Conceded1.120.701.52
BTTS40%48%32%
Clean Sheet35%48%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
Bulgaria: Second League
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLW1.32
HomeLLWLW1.96
AwayWLLLL0.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%62%17%
AVG goals2.442.312.58
Over 1.5 %64%58%71%
Over 2.5 %52%50%54%
Over 3.5 %24%15%33%
Scored1.061.460.62
Conceded1.380.851.96
BTTS42%38%46%
Clean Sheet32%46%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Spartak VarnaSpartak Varna3472
68%
2.1
6028+32
2.6
79%
50%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.80.8
-
2Septemvri SofiaSeptemvri Sofia3465
56%
1.9
4626+20
2.1
74%
38%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.40.8
-
3MarekMarek3461
47%
1.8
3626+10
1.8
50%
29%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.10.8
-
4MontanaMontana3457
47%
1.7
4631+15
2.3
68%
35%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.40.9
-
5Strumska SlavaStrumska Slava3451
41%
1.5
3428+6
1.8
53%
21%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.8
-
6DobrudzhaDobrudzha3450
41%
1.5
4334+9
2.3
68%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
-
7CSKA 1948 Sofia IICSKA 1948 Sofia II3450
38%
1.5
3936+3
2.2
65%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
8Yantra 2019Yantra 20193447
35%
1.4
3937+2
2.2
71%
47%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1021.11.1
-
9Dunav RuseDunav Ruse3446
35%
1.4
3036-6
1.9
71%
24%
6%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.1
-
10Spartak PlevenSpartak Pleven3445
38%
1.3
2932-3
1.8
53%
26%
6%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.90.9
-
11LitexLitex3445
35%
1.3
3036-6
1.9
56%
38%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
12Ludogorets IILudogorets II3444
32%
1.3
3939+0
2.3
68%
38%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.11.1
-
13BelasitsaBelasitsa3443
35%
1.3
3733+4
2.1
65%
29%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
-
14Sportist SvogeSportist Svoge3440
29%
1.2
3645-9
2.4
71%
35%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.3
-
15Chernomorets 1919 BurgasChernomorets 1919 Burgas3438
26%
1.1
3341-8
2.2
68%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.2
-
16Chernomorets BalchikChernomorets Balchik3436
29%
1.1
3649-13
2.5
76%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
17Maritsa PlovdivMaritsa Plovdiv3430
26%
0.9
3156-25
2.6
65%
41%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.6
-
18BdinBdin3422
15%
0.6
1950-31
2.0
47%
26%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.5
-
Bulgaria: Second League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →

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