The contest between Ludogorets II and Pirin Blagoevgrad is a tight one, with the model pointing to an away win as the most probable outcome. Home advantage is modest: Ludogorets II, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 2.33 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded, yet their recent form has been shaky, coming off a draw in their last match. Pirin Blagoevgrad, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, losing five straight games and conceding 1.33 goals per match against stronger opposition while scoring just one on average.
The expected goal tally sits at 3.0, but the model favours a modest 2-goal total with a 24% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.3% probability. The probability distribution for match results is 33% home win, 27% draw, and 40% away win, confirming the away win as the favourite.
The model’s selection list includes an Over 1.5 goals pick, with an 81% probability of hitting. No other selections are offered.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Ludogorets II edged Pirin Blagoevgrad 2-1, overturning the pre-match favourite, an away win that the model had assigned a 40% probability. The prediction was therefore wrong. Ludogorets, fresh from a draw in their last five, kept their form, while Pirin, after five straight defeats, could not muster a win. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals with an 81% chance, hit, as the match saw three goals. The final score of 2-1 matched the most likely 1-2 outcome, but the outcome itself contradicted the model’s favourite.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ludogorets II win✓ Hit
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad win✗ Miss
40.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ludogorets II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.23
1.71
0.86
0.62
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.09
1.22
1.55
0.91
0.67
1.50
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
1.29
2.33
0.67
0.50
1.75
Clean sheet %
30% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.20
1.27
1.20
1.40
1.20
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.71
1.25
2.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (23)
1.39
1.04
1.27
0.91
1.50
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.4%
Under 2.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.0%
Under 3.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.1%
No
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
8.8%
2-1 ✓
7.9%
0-1
6.8%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
6.2%
1-0
6.0%
Ludogorets II goals ↓
Pirin Blagoevgrad goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
6.8%
6.3%
3.3%
1.3%
1
6.0%
12%
8.8%
4.6%
1.8%
2
5.0%
7.9%
6.2%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.4%
3.7%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ludogorets II goals (down), columns = Pirin Blagoevgrad goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dunav Ruse
2.16
Yantra 2019
2.00
Fratria
1.97
Vihren
1.81
CSKA Sofia II
1.72
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.44
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.38
Marek
1.28
Ludogorets II
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.25
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.09
Sportist Svoge
1.06
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
Sevlievo
1.00
FK Minyor Pernik
0.94
Belasitsa
0.59
Ludogorets II is 0.09 points better than Pirin Blagoevgrad in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fratria
1.91
Vihren
1.84
CSKA Sofia II
1.78
Dunav Ruse
1.66
Yantra 2019
1.41
Ludogorets II
1.28
Hebar 1918
1.28
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.22
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.19
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.19
Spartak Pleven
1.16
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.03
FK Minyor Pernik
1.00
Sevlievo
0.91
Sportist Svoge
0.88
Marek
0.84
Belasitsa
0.81
Ludogorets II is 0.09 goals better than Pirin Blagoevgrad in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dunav Ruse
0.50
Yantra 2019
0.75
Fratria
0.91
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Vihren
1.06
Marek
1.09
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.28
Ludogorets II
1.34
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.34
FK Minyor Pernik
1.41
Spartak Pleven
1.41
Sportist Svoge
1.50
Hebar 1918
1.59
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.62
Sevlievo
1.62
Belasitsa
1.94
Ludogorets II is 0.06 goals worse than Pirin Blagoevgrad in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ludogorets II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.71
0.43
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.52
0.73
0.45
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.43
0.67
0.33
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.60
0.53
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.14
0.75
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.57
0.55
0.36
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ludogorets II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
1.00
0.43
0.25
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.70
0.82
0.45
0.25
0.92
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.86
1.67
0.33
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Pirin Blagoevgrad) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.87
0.33
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.57
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.48
0.73
0.55
1.00
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pirin Blagoevgrad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pirin Blagoevgrad · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vitālijs Jagodinskis33%
Martin Georgiev33%
Ivan Tasev30%
Aymen Souda29%
Arnaud Luzayadio20%
Andrey Yordanov11%
Ventsislav Bengyuzov10%
Hugo Komano10%
Boris Tyutyukov0%
Nikolay Bodurov0%
Stanislav Kostov0%
Aleksandar Dyulgerov0%
Hristo Popadiyn0%
Modou Diagne0%
Dmytro Semeniv0%
Maksym Kovalov0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Asen Donchev0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Danylo Polonskyi0%
Ilian Kostov0%
Martin Bachev0%
Evgeni Georgiev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dmytro Semeniv67%
Georgi Varbanov60%
Boris Tyutyukov50%
Hristo Popadiyn43%
Ventsislav Bengyuzov40%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis33%
Nikolay Bodurov25%
Modou Diagne25%
Evgeni Georgiev25%
Ivan Tasev20%
Ayoub Abou Oulam20%
Danylo Polonskyi17%
Aymen Souda14%
Andrey Yordanov11%
Stanislav Kostov11%
Maksym Kovalov11%
Hugo Komano10%
Aleksandar Dyulgerov0%
Arnaud Luzayadio0%
Asen Donchev0%
Ilian Kostov0%
Martin Bachev0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Asen Donchev25%
Hugo Komano20%
Georgi Varbanov20%
Andrey Yordanov11%
Ivan Tasev10%
Ventsislav Bengyuzov0%
Boris Tyutyukov0%
Nikolay Bodurov0%
Stanislav Kostov0%
Aleksandar Dyulgerov0%
Hristo Popadiyn0%
Modou Diagne0%
Aymen Souda0%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis0%
Dmytro Semeniv0%
Arnaud Luzayadio0%
Maksym Kovalov0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Danylo Polonskyi0%
Ilian Kostov0%
Martin Bachev0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Evgeni Georgiev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Tasev20%
Aymen Souda14%
Hugo Komano10%
Ventsislav Bengyuzov0%
Boris Tyutyukov0%
Nikolay Bodurov0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Stanislav Kostov0%
Aleksandar Dyulgerov0%
Hristo Popadiyn0%
Modou Diagne0%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis0%
Dmytro Semeniv0%
Arnaud Luzayadio0%
Maksym Kovalov0%
Ayoub Abou Oulam0%
Asen Donchev0%
Georgi Varbanov0%
Danylo Polonskyi0%
Ilian Kostov0%
Martin Bachev0%
Martin Georgiev0%
Evgeni Georgiev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (22)
€4m
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Ludogorets II and Pirin Blagoevgrad have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Ludogorets II and Pirin Blagoevgrad have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (5)
€1m
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Ludogorets II and Pirin Blagoevgrad have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DR (11)
€2m
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Ludogorets II and Pirin Blagoevgrad have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dunav Ruse
Yantra 2019
Fratria
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Marek
Hebar 1918
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Sevlievo
FK Minyor Pernik
Belasitsa